In a bid to wrestle a second consecutive British trainers' title from Dan Skelton, Willie Mullins' bandwagon rolls in to Ayr...
Six of the yard's original 11 entries for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (3.35) have made the final declaration stage in a field of 23 runners; those who waited to see what Paul Townend chose to ride waited in vain - the stable's star jockey hasn't been booked for a ride since finishing second on I Am Maximus at Aintree last Saturday.
At the time of writing four of the six Mullins horses are prominent in the market: Chosen Witness, with Sean O'Keefe up; Olympic Man (Mr P W Mullins); Captain Cody (Harry Cobden); and last year's winner Macdermott (Danny Mullins) .
Chosen Witness has yet to win a race over fences in three starts but he was travelling well enough at Navan last time when unseating Paul Townend in a race won by Better Days Ahead - who subsequently finished third in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival.
Olympic Man is another with just three chase starts to his name. He won over two and a half miles at Naas last time out but, to date, hasn't always appeared particularly fluent over his fences.
Captain Cody has yet to win in four chase starts; he unseated mid-race behind Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Festival last month (Rock My Way second, Klarc Kent eighth, Hasthing fell at final fence when probably booked for fourth) and looks high enough in the handicap on 140.
In last year's renewal Macdermott (137) pipped Surrey Quest (133) a nose, with Klarc Kent fourth (132), Spanish Harlem sixth (140), and Mr Incredible (153) pulled up.
Macdermott's form looks rather indifferent this season yet he goes off 142 while this race has been a stated target for Surrey Quest who races off 139.
Spanish Harlem, beaten just over eight lengths and now four pounds lower, appears feasibly treated on 136 while Klarc Kent - along with Magna Sam and Brandt - runs from out of the handicap this year but hinted at a return to form in the National Hunt Challenge Cup.
It all brings back memories of younger days when, on my annual trip to the Festival, I'd try to pick the Mullins trained winner of the Cheltenham bumper - more often than not, the market proved of no practical use whatsoever...
One final observation on last year's race, run on ground officially described as soft.
11 of the 26 runners completed, all carrying under 11 stones; less than 10 lengths separated the first seven home, with all 11 finishers in a ratings band between 132 - 141.
In 2004 Grey Abbey carried 11-12 to victory; since then only four winners have carried more than 11-00: Godsmejudge (11-03, 2013); Vicente (11-03, 2016 and 11-10, 2017); and Mighty Thunder (11-01, 2021).
The going this year is described as good to soft; Skelton relies on Sail Away and Snipe in his bid to land the £112,540 first prize. He'll certainly feel encouraged by the treble he sent out at the Scottish venue today: Roxanne (100/30); Riskintheground (13/2); and Asta La Pasta (6/4f).
Sail Away and Snipe finished second and third behind The Doyen Chief at Warwick just over a fortnight ago, beaten a neck and six and threequarters lengths; the winner was probably worth more than the official winning margin that day and has the bet365 Chase at Sandown as his target.
Sail Away hasn't come home in front since winning the 2023 running of the Novices' Championship Handicap Chase at this meet off 136 but his last two runs have hinted at better to come - he bled from the nose when third behind The Doyen Chief on his penultimate start. He'll appreciate better ground and is feasibly treated on a mark of 132 although the trip is a journey into the unknown.
Previously Snipe came home third behind Docpickedme in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster in January, where Walking On Air fell jumping the last when looking the likely winner.
Harry Skelton rides Sail Away and that one looks the stable's main hope.
New handler Faye Bramley, based at A P McCoy's pre-training yard in Lambourn, saddles Walking On Air for the first time. When with Gary Brown, the gelding finished eleventh behind Daily Present in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 30 days ago, a race in which Grozni finished sixth, Wiseguy seventh and Dom Of Mary eighth.
On his only try beyond three and a quarter miles Henry's Friend was pulled up behind Corbetts Cross in the 2024 National Hunt Challenge Cup.
He appears to have his share of weight here - a comment that also applies to Our Power - while I noted Finn Lambert hard at work some way from home when The Kniphand stayed on to finish second behind Moroder in the Grimthorpe last month.
Rock My Way will need to jump better than last time to give himself a chance, a comment that also applies to Hasthing who wears cheekpieces for the first time.
When Famous Bridge wore cheekpieces for the first time he scooted away from Apple Away after the last in Haydock's Grand National Trial. He was raised four pounds for that effort, then dropped one after finishing sixth behind Myretown in the Ultima. That still leaves Nicky Richards' charge on a mark of 141 and the stable has been quiet recently, although Summergrounds won the concluding handicap hurdle earlier today.
Back in February the 11-year-old Magna Sam won the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh by nine and a half lengths off a mark of 114 (Surrey Quest third); he was raised eight pounds for his efforts but still races from out of the handicap tomorrow.
In 2023 Alastair Ralph's charge finished fifth behind Kitty's Light in this race, two places behind 40/1 shot Flash De Touzaine; Liz Doyle's charge bounced back to form to win a Veterans' Chase at Limerick last month.
Brandt won the Dublin Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over an extended three and a half miles last time off a mark of 110, with Tiernan Roche claiming five. He races from four pounds out of the handicap tomorrow; the booking of Sean Bowen certainly catches the eye.
And Alice Stevens, claiming three, has the been given the unenviable task of cajoling former Mullins inmate Mr Incredible to put his best foot forward.
In summary...
I wouldn't be the only one surprised to see no runner from Lucinda Russell's stable in this field - Whistle Stop Tour goes in the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase at 1.43.
Those on the shortlist include Surrey Quest, Spanish Harlem, Famous Bridge and Magna Sam.
Surrey Quest looks solid - I'd expect him to reverse Edinburgh National form with Magna Sam on this left-handed track - but a mark six pounds higher than last year is a challenge.
A mark of 141 looks stiff enough for Famous Bridge but Spanish Harlem makes some appeal - four pounds lower than last year when beaten just over eight lengths.
Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Spanish Harlem has yet to win a race for W P Mullins but there were hopeful signs at Punchestown last time while the time before he finished 33 lengths behind Nick Rockett in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park.
I'd like to think he can show some improvement on last year's effort.
Spanish Harlem is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally at the time of writing but 14/1 with Paddy Power who pay six places.
3 comments:
Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Sail Away [FR], 171, 17/2
Walking On Air [IRE], 169, 11/1
Wiseguy [IRE], 168, 12/1
Snipe [IRE], 168, 14/1
Famous Bridge [IRE], 166, 16/1
Dom Of Mary [FR], 165, 20/1
Surrey Quest [IRE], 164, 18/1
The Kniphand [FR], 164, 20/1
Rock My Way [IRE], 164, 20/1
Hasthing [FR], 163, 25/1
Spanish Harlem [FR], 162, 25/1
Henry's Friend [IRE], 161, 25/1
Our Power [IRE], 160, 28/1
Grozni [FR], 159, 50/1
Macdermott [FR], 158, 33/1
Flash De Touzaine [FR], 157, 50/1
Magna Sam [GB], 157, 50/1
Klarc Kent [FR], 156, 50/1
Mr Incredible [IRE], 155, 100/1
Captain Cody [IRE], 154, 50/1
Chosen Witness [IRE], 152, 50/1
Olympic Man [FR], 152, 50/1
Brandt [IRE], 150, 66/1
Sail Away tops the ratings but I’m not sure this marathon trip will suit. From your short list I quite like both Surrey Quest and Famous Bridge [not sure the selection Spanish Harlem will relish this ground], with six EW places on offer I’m hopeful Surrey Quest [12/1] can run another big race this time around.
Good luck.
TW
Had a little go at Our Power @ 40's. Went well in the National in 23 for a long way..
I notice the 100/1 about Mr Incredible lasted about 2 minutes haha. What if he actually starts?
An eventful renewal!
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