Friday, March 07, 2025

Sandown's 2025 Imperial Cup

It's a spirited soul who saunters into the surreal world of slots.

Back in October 2020 Mrs Corrine Durber thought she had won a 'monster jackpot' totalling £1,097,132.71 on a Paddy Power slot described as 'a combination of a fruit machine and a wheel-of-fortune style game'.

Claiming a mapping error, Paddy Power only paid out the daily jackpot of £20,265.15 so Mrs Durber decided to sue PPB Entertainment. 

Earlier this week, four and a half years later, Mr Justice Ritchie ruled in her favour.

Mrs Durber said:

"I will never bet with them ever again."

At one point in court, Philip Hinks, counsel for PPB Entertainment, said what was shown on a customer's screen was irrelevant 'wallpaper'.

In the past, when I've tried using a similar line with my bank, I've been given extremely short shrift...   

Anyway, enough; take a look at this Tom Segal quotation from this week's RP Weekender:

"...it's just that on most Saturdays there are better betting opportunities for a value-based approach than there are throughout the whole of the Cheltenham Festival." 

With comments like that I thought I'd take the hint, have a stab at tomorrow's Imperial Cup (2.25 Sandown), and, in the process, generate my own irrelevant wallpaper. 

17 have been declared; the going on the hurdles track is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

This year there's a bonus on offer - the first time since 2021: £100,000 to the winner of this who goes on to win any race at Cheltenham next week. 

The following horses hold Festival entries: Afadil (County); Batman Girac (County); Bo Zenith (Coral Cup / Martin Pipe); Go Dante (County); Knickerbockerglory (County); Lump Sum (County); Ooh Betty (County); Spirits Bay (Coral Cup); Tapley (Jack Richards / Martin Pipe); and We're Red And Blue (County).

Lump Sum takes his chance with the result that the handicap has a lop-sided look to it; just four in the field carry more than 11-00 and only six are rated above the lowest rated winner of the past ten years - London Prize won off 128 in 2017.

Two potentially well-handicapped runners are Go Dante and Afadil.

Go Dante pipped Faivoir a nose to win last year's renewal off a mark of 129 and goes off 127 tomorrow.

Needless to say, Olly Murphy's charge hasn't been in such good form this term but his seventh place behind facile winner Joyeuse in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury four weeks ago (Lump Sum second, King William Rufus sixth) hinted at a possible return to form. Since 2000 only one nine-year-old has come home in front - Scorned in 2004. 

Afadil won the 2024 running of the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh off a mark of 124, and then, racing off a mark of 130 next time, finished fifth in the corresponding race at the Cheltenham Festival, under five lengths behind Absurde.

Last time out he was beaten a length by Welsh Charger in this year's Scottish County Hurdle and has been raised two pounds for that effort - to 122.

At the time of writing Bo Zenith heads the market; this one has had two outings since moving from Gary Moore's yard in October and both represent pertinent pieces of form.

On seasonal debut he finished third behind Mirabad in the Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (Wreckless Eric second, To Chase A Dream fourth, Spirits Bay fifth and Tintintin sixth).  

Next time he appeared outpaced on better ground over and extended two miles three when fifth behind Altobelli at Ascot.

Wreckless Eric has made good progress since moving from Ben Pauling's yard in the autumn; he will appreciate drying ground but stable form is still something of a concern.

Having won over an extended two miles three at Doncaster, To Chase A Dream is likely to appreciate Sandown's stiff finish.

Last time out Spirits Bay finished third behind Constitution Hill in the International Hurdle and has been well supported in the market.

Despite his price Tintintin brings respectable form to the table - third behind runaway winner Pickanumber in the Swinton last May (Tapley second, Afadil eleventh) and fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood (Go Dante ninth).

Bought for 150,000 euros, Batman Girac  has yet to win a race for Simon Munir and Isaac Souede; last time the gelding was three lengths down and staying on when falling at the final flight in a Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Course and distance winner Knickerbockerglory beat Nemean Lion eight lengths on seasonal debut - that reads well - and finished third behind Secret Squirrel on soft ground at Windsor seven weeks ago (Hardy Du Seuil fifth, Wreckless Eric sixth, Go Dante eleventh). 

Ooh Betty also boasts course and distance winning form and ran well in a Grade 2 Mares' Hurdle on good ground at Ascot last time, leading off the home turn but losing two places on the run-in, eventually finishing third behind Take No Chances and Kargese.

On his blog Paul Nicholls reports Sorceleur 'took a blow before keeping on to finish third' behind Jurancon at Newbury last week. There has been some market support this evening.

That one races from one pound out of the handicap, as does We're Red And Blue, stablemate of Wreckless Eric, while Big Ginge goes from five pounds out of the handicap and remains a maiden.

Hardy Du Seuil ran well for Will Featherstone when fifth behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor - the pair were beaten just three lengths - and the partnership is renewed tomorrow. Drying ground looks a negative for this one.

Tapley has mixed hurdling and chasing this term. His second in the Swinton looks good; prior to that he had finished fourth behind Tintintin in a conditional and amateur riders' race at Cheltenham. 

In a race that often goes the way of a five or six-year old, I'm going for one that will appreciate the better ground. 

King William Rufus ran well on soft ground in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last month, eventually finishing sixth. Handler Chris Gordon said about his charge in the RP Weekender [26.02-02.03.25]:

"The ground wouldn't have been in his favour in the William Hill Hurdle last time. He seems to prefer better ground, but he still ran an absolute blinder to finish sixth. I think if he'd jumped the second-last better, he'd have probably finished fourth, which would have meant a bit more prize-money. I was pleased with the way he ran and I might look at the Imperial Cup if the ground dries up."

The yard haven't had a winner for 25 days; I'm hoping King William Rufus will give me a run for my money.

King William Rufus is the each-way selection, 16/1 generally at the time of writing but William Hill offer 18/1 and pay five places. 

8 comments:

TW said...

More wallpaper….

Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Spirits Bay [GB], 165, 6/1
Sorceleur [FR], 163, 17/2
Bo Zenith [FR], 161, 10/1
Wreckless Eric [GB], 160, 14/1
Lump Sum [FR], 158, 14/1
Hardy Du Seuil [FR], 158, 18/1
Knickerbockerglory [IRE], 158, 16/1
Tintintin [FR], 157, 25/1
King William Rufus [FR], 157, 20/1
Ooh Betty [IRE], 156, 25/1
Go Dante [GB], 156, 20/1
We're Red And Blue [GB], 156, 25/1
To Chase A Dream [GB], 156, 25/1
Tapley [GB], 156, 28/1
Afadil [FR], 154, 28/1
Big Ginge [IRE], 151, 50/1
Batman Girac [FR], 147, 50/1

Conditions should suit KWR but, as an 8yo, he might be exposed.

Dropped back to 2 miles on better ground Sorceleur looked over priced even after tightening in the market and I’ve taken 18/1 5 places 1/5 odds.

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for your ratings, TW.
Currently choosing my wallpaper for Cheltenham... ;)
Good luck!

Sandracer said...

Knickerbocker after his last run is a danger at decent odds. How often do 9yo's improve, because if he wins today, then he must be. I think he is.

TW said...

Interesting from Andrew Mount [https://gg.co.uk/news/tipping/andrew-mounts-horse-racing-tips-saturday-8th-march/], if he is right we are both sunk...though hopefully just more wallpaper :-)


Simply backing horses who were ridden patiently in their prep race would have found the last ten Imperial Cup winners (from 75 runners) for a profit of £56.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.16, A/E = 1.94). Those who led or raced prominently were 0-81. There are seven qualifiers this year…

Lump Sun
Batman Girac
To Chase A Dream
Wreckless Eric
Go Dante
Spirits Bay
Tapley



TW

GeeDee said...

Good luck, Sandracer!
That defeat of Nemean Lion in December over C&D looks decent form.
Although TW draws attention (below) to Andrew Mount's stat - horses ridden patiently in their prep have won the last ten renewals...

GeeDee said...

The market would appear to think I'm sunk too, TW.
28/1 across the board - has hit 33s!

GeeDee said...

Go Dante wins, TW.
Good call Andrew Mount.

GeeDee said...

Go Dante (6/1) became the first horse to record back to back wins in the Imperial Cup since High Point (1952/53) and the first nine-year-old to come home in front since Scorned in 2004.
In a bunched finish Olly Murphy's charge held Wreckless Eric (7/1) half a length with Afadil (8/1) a short head third, Tintintin a neck fourth, and long-time leader Knickerbockerglory (16/1) a further threequarters of a length away in fifth.
The first five home were covered by less than two lengths.
It all looked like rather hard work in the spring sunshine, with the ground described variously as 'dead', 'tacky', and 'nearer soft in places'.
Selection King William Rufus (25/1) proved easy to back on the day. He raced in fourth for much of the trip but a mistake at the penultimate flight put paid to his chance in no uncertain terms and he struggled up the hill, eventually beating just one runner home (Batman Girac, 22/1), some 20 lengths behind the winner.