Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Wednesday

Still recovering from the high drama of the Champion Hurdle earlier this afternoon in which the two previous winners, Constitution Hill and State Man, both fell, the former four from home, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. 

Golden Ace (25/1) won, with Burdett Road (66/1) second and Winter Fog (150/1) third; the trifecta paid £4,432. 90.


1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle

Writing in the RP Weekender before the Dublin Racing Festival, Tom Segal was of the opinion The New Lion was the most exciting novice seen this season. Then Final Demand beat Wingmen 12 lengths in impressive style at Leopardstown. 

At the time of writing Final Demand and The New Lion share favouritism.

Yellow Clay beat Wingmen 11 lengths at Naas at the beginning of the year. 

In receipt of five pounds Sixmilebridge beat Potters Charm eight and a half lengths on the New Course on Trials Day. After the race Team Twiston-Davies admitted they had run there 'as an afterthought' and regretted doing so.  

Before that defeat Potters Charm had won twice on the Old Course in the autumn and then won the Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day. 

Back on the Old Course, and sporting a first-time tongue-tie, Potters Charm rates an each-way play.

Potters Charm is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing available at 14/1 with most layers. 


4.00 Champion Chase

Over the years I've had some wagers in this: Pearlyman, Latalomne - going well and fell two out two years on the trot, Special Tiara and, in 2004, Venn Ottery each-way @ 40/1. 

Owner Mr O.J. Carter declared Venn Ottery for the race without telling trainer, Mr P. Nicholls; unfortunately Mr Carter didn't declare the tongue-tie... 

The notes in-running state: "disputed second and going well two out, soon no chance with winner (Azertyuiop), ridden and weakened rapidly run-in."

Venn Ottery eventually finished fifth, beaten 23 lengths, but to this day I still maintain, if he had run with a tongue-tie, as intended...

Favourites have only won three of the past ten renewals but Jonbon has had a season to remember, winning the Schloer, the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House (Energumene second); many will feel he would be a deserved winner.

He was declared a non-runner for last year's renewal on account of the poor form of the Henderson yard at the time; prior to that he hadn't jumped well on the New Course when mugged by Elixir Du Nutz in the re-arranged Clarence House.

Energumene, owned by Tony Bloom, beat Captain Guinness 10 lengths in the 2023 renewal and isn't lightly dismissed, even at the age of 11. 

Mr Bloom also owns the heavily backed Bunting who has his first run in a handicap in the Coral Cup (2.40); given a mark of 135 by the Irish handicapper, he races off 139 in that two mile five contest. 

At Leopardstown over Christmas Solness beat Marine Nationale (third), Captain Guinness (fifth) and Found A Fitfy (pulled up). 

Then at the Dublin Racing Festival Joseph O'Brien's charge beat Marine Nationale (second), Quilixios (fourth) and Captain Guinness (sixth) - that looked a hard enough race on yielding ground and Marine Nationale posed a viable threat after the last.

Found A Fifty gave Solness seven pounds and a neck beating at Navan in November despite jumping right on occasions; that tendency to go right won't help his cause here. 

I'm pleased to see connections of Libberty Hunter have opted for this rather than the Grand Annual in which he was second last year (behind Unanswered Prayers) on just his fourth start over fences. 

Owners Mr & Mrs William Rucker have adopted a patient approach with this one; he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock for a nine year old. Ideally he wants softer ground but the uphill finish should play to his strengths and I think he can outrun odds of 33/1 - provided he can keep tabs on the early pace. 

The ratings tells us he has something to find with every other runner in this field but I like this horse and will have a bet.

Libberty Hunter is the each-way selection, 33/1 generally. 

4.40 Grand Annual

I'm going to take an interest in Primoz on the back of this comment made by trainer Lucinda Russell at Kelso on 14.02.25:

"Primoz is one of the most talented horses we've dealt with and we've changed his training programme a bit. I don't know where he'll go next but he's a very talented horse if we can get some consistency into him." 

I wrote that just before the yard's Myretown proved a blot on the handicap in the Ultima earlier today.

Primoz is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 in places with layers paying five places.

I'll pass on the Brown Advisory - a final field of seven all trained in Ireland -  and I usually end up feeling a bit dizzy after the Cross Country. My nap for the bumper, Windbeneathmywings, is out injured. That's racing, as they say. 

This evening spare a thought for Paul Townend. Five lengths clear coming to the last and another Champion Hurdle beckons. A long stride, a hurdle clipped, State Man falls, and it all disappears before your very eyes.

9 comments:

TW said...

An eventful Day 1.

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Final Demand [IRE], 174, 11/8
The New Lion [GB], 170, 7/2
Potters Charm [IRE], 164, 8/1

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Ballyburn [IRE], 171, 7/4
Stellar Story [IRE], 169, 9/2
Better Days Ahead [IRE], 167, 6/1

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Be Aware [FR], 167, 10/1
Beckett Rock [IRE], 170, 11/1
Impose Toi [FR], 164, 14/1
Eagle Fang [IRE], 167, 16/1
Beat The Bat [IRE], 165, 18/1
Jipcot [FR], 165, 18/1
Sa Fureur [IRE], 166, 20/1

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Iwilldoit [GB], 175, 13/2
Galvin [IRE], 172, 15/2
Stumptown [IRE], 166, 9/1
Mister Coffey [FR], 168, 11/1
Vanillier [FR], 169, 12/1
Busselton [FR], 170, 14/1
Latenightpass [GB], 169, 14/1
Escaria Ten [FR], 170, 16/1
French Dynamite [FR], 169, 18/1

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Jonbon [FR], 191, 7/4
Solness [FR], 189, 9/2
Energumene [FR], 184, 6/1
Marine Nationale [IRE], 185, 7/1
Quilixios [GB], 180, 18/1
Found A Fifty [IRE], 175, 25/1
Libberty Hunter [GB], 173, 33/1
Captain Guinness [IRE], 162, 50/1

Horse, System Rating, Tissue
JPR One [IRE], 174, 9/1
Unexpected Party [FR], 172, 10/1
Nells Son [GB], 173, 11/1
Fringill Dike [IRE], 172, 14/1
Primoz [IRE], 171, 14/1
General Medrano [IRE], 170, 14/1
My Mate Mozzie [IRE], 166, 16/1
Traprain Law [FR], 170, 16/1

Any thoughts to follow later.

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.

TW said...

Turners Novice Hurdle

I think the winner will come from one of the front two in the market with Final Demand edging it on the system, at 14’s Potters Charm does look a good EW play though. I’m sitting it out,

Brown Advisory

Ballyburn the most likely winner but short enough, Gordon Elliott’s pair should chase him home but only 2 places on offer so I’ll skip the race.

Coral Cup

Be Aware deserves to head the market but is far too short. Beckett Road at the top of the system ratings looks over priced, he ran too bad to be true at the Dublin Festival but put that run behind him LTO, trip should suit and I’m hoping he’ll get away with the ground and that Ms Blackmore has opted for the wrong one [EW 28/1 6 places].

Champion Chase

I like your faith in Libberty Hunter though he does look to have a fair bit to find, odds on looks too short for Jonbon, Solness might be the EW play, I’ll watch with interest.

Grand Annual

Primoz is going the right way, looks set to be involved in the finish and you must be happy sat on that 20/1 ticket given the market move! At current odds I’m going to have a punt on another northern raider Nells Son at 33’s EW 5 places, a 10yo he might be a bit long in the tooth but comes in to the race in the form of his life and might stay on up the hill to good effect.

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Libbery Hunter a quixotic selection perhaps, TW, in Venn Ottery vein... ;)
The worry with Primoz would be his lack of experience in a big field.
The Coral Cup is often a rough race. too, TW.
Good luck!

Sandracer said...

I backed 3 last night: 2:40 Maxxum 33/1
3:20 French Dynamite 66/1
4:40 Nells Son 40/1

I don't think the prices of mine have moved at all. Cheltenham's tough.

GeeDee said...

Certainly is, Sandracer.
One at a price for Friday on drying ground:
Our Champ 50/1 in the County
Good luck!

GeeDee said...

Beckett Road sneaks into sixth. Well done!

Sandracer said...

Couldn't have had Jimmy So What with 20 free goes. I'd had rather spun the 20 on one of the owner Ed Ware's fruit machines at 32red.

GeeDee said...

Nor me! :)