Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Thursday

An emotional second day with victories for Marine Nationale in the Champion Chase and Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual.

Two days in, and there have been some unsatisfactory starts to races - a debate for another day, no doubt.

A couple of suggestions for Thursday...

3.20 Ryanair Chase

A hot looking renewal.

Favourite Fact To File won the Brown Advisory here last year despite jumping right on occasions. 

He beat the current Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs over two miles three and a half in November and has since twice finished behind Galopin Des Champs over an extended three miles at Leopardstown - no disgrace at all - in the Savills Chase over Christmas and in the Irish Gold Cup last month.

I'm guessing connections have reasoned they're not going to beat Galopin Des Champs so they step back in trip here. Connections of last year's winner, Protektorat, followed a similar path after finishing fifth behind the same horse in the 2023 Gold Cup.

Protektorat did the blog a favour in this race last year and this has been his target. 

Things went awry in the Peterborough Chase won by Djelo where hold-up tactics patently failed to work. Allowed to bowl along in front at Windsor next time, Dan Skelton's charge comfortably beat that rival 23 lengths. 

He is seen at his best sitting just off a strong pace which he's likely to get with Il Est Francais in the field.

Il Est Francais went into everyone's notebook when jumping like a stag to make all and win the 2023 renewal of the Kauto Star at Kempton; he might prove difficult to catch on the front end. Since moving to Tom George in 2022 all his racing has been at either Auteuil or Kempton Park.

Henry De Bromhead saddles three; the yard is slowly emerging from a lean spell. 

Jungle Boogie may be 11 years of age but he doesn't have many miles on the clock (just five chase starts to date). Sixth in last year's Gold Cup - mistake three out when travelling well enough - he's another to step back in distance. On his sole start since, he won comfortably at Ascot in December although main rival Iroko (11/8f) was hampered and came a cropper at the first.

Envoi Allen, another 11 year old, won the 2023 renewal of this race and finished second behind Protektorat last year. Rachael Blackmore rides, suggesting this one might be the stable's main hope.

Heart Wood finished seven and a half lengths adrift of Fact To File in the Savills Chase over Christmas.

Master Chewy showed plenty of resolve when beating Libberty Hunter in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time; this represents his first chase start beyond two miles one furlong.

Hang In There likes decent ground but on his first run since November he's likely to have other targets during the spring / summer. 

Only three horses older than nine have won this since the inaugural running in 2005: Fondmort (2006); Our Vic (2008); and Albertas Run (2011). 

I'm staying loyal to Protektorat.

Protektorat is the win selection, generally a 6/1 shot.

4.00 Stayers' Hurdle

Teahupoo won this last year but could prove vulnerable on drying ground. 

Handler Joseph O'Brien had a strong word for Home By The Lee in a TV snippet on Tuesday..

Connections seem confident Lucky Place can stay this trip. He gave weight and a beating to Gowel Road, Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday), and Langer Dan on New Year's Day.

Off a mark of 145 The Wallpark gave Gowel Road four pounds and a two and a half length beating in a Pertemps qualifier over course and distance in the autumn. He made up plenty of ground late on in the Long Walk to finish fourth behind Crambo last time; drying ground will suit.

Langer Dan isn't the easiest to predict but he tends to show his best form at this time of year. Second behind a horse called Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 renewal of the Martin Pipe, he won the Coral Cup in 2023 and 2024 and steps up to three miles for the first time.

Dan Skelton said in a stable tour before the start of the core season:

"I do have concerns about how he behaves in the autumn and the winter because historically he hasn't been good. 

"He just gets a lot easier in the spring...

"Unless the first thee runs are absolutely diabolical we want to have a go at the Stayers' Hurdle."

Bob Olinger has twice finished behind Home By The Lee this season.

If Crambo could transfer his Ascot form to Cheltenham (won the last two renewals of the Long Walk Hurdle) he would be no 28/1 shot. Johnny Burke reported he ran flat in this last year when ninth while a bad mistake at the fifth last saw him finish fifth behind Gowel Road in the Cleeve on Trials Day (Monmiral second but declared a non-runner).

Nemean Lion has been in rude health this term, winning at Windsor in January (Langer Dan fifth) and beating Steel Ally a neck in the National Spirit at Fontwell. He steps up to three miles for the first time here, having been withdrawn from the Rendlesham at Haydock last month on account of the ground. 

After the National Spirit connections were reportedly thinking of bypassing this meet but have clearly had a change of heart. At the time Kerry Lee said:

"What a tough little cookie. Neman Lion loves racing and loves a fight.

"I think this gives me three possibilities. We might look at Auteuil, Fairyhouse and then there's of course the option of a Grade 1 at Aintree, whether over two and a half miles or three. He had a hard race so we'll have to see how he is in a couple of weeks." 

The suspicion is this may come too soon after the Fontwell race.

Buddy One was fourth in this race last year, beaten under nine lengths, but he doesn't appear to have taken too well to chasing this term. Last time out, reverting back to hurdles, he was pulled up behind Rocky Diamond in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park.

At 6/1 Home By The Lee looks an each-way bet to nothing against Teahupoo; The Wallpark has been well supported today.

It's inherently risky but I'm going to chance Langer Dan; he appeared to stay three miles when third behind Strong Leader in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and this was the stated plan in the autumn. 

Two consecutive wins in the Coral Cup read well; I'll be hoping the horse has engaged 'spring' mode.  

Langer Dan is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally, with most layers paying four places. 

I won't have a bet in the prosaically named TrustATrader Plate (4.40) but I've seen a comment somewhere yet have struggled to dig it out... 

Connections think course and distance winner Jagwar is a Graded level performer. If that's the case, he'll need to go close in this handicap off his current mark.

Finally, I note that Aworkinprogress, having missed the cut for the National Hunt Challenge Cup on Tuesday, has missed the cut for the Kim Muir at 5.20 but he holds an entry in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on Saturday for which he is currently priced up 6/1 favourite.