What's this? William Hill sponsoring the Betfair Hurdle?
It used to be the Tote before that, didn't it? And, before that, Schhh... You Know Who.
Anyway, the final field of eighteen for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.35) has some notable absentees including Tellherthename, Hansard and Bo Zenith.
The going at Newbury is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with light rain forecast overnight.
Favourite Secret Squirrel won the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle with something to spare on soft ground at Windsor three weeks ago (with Navajo Indy fourth, Beat The Bat seventh, Go Dante eleventh and Givemefive 30 lengths adrift in thirteenth place) and carries a five pounds penalty here.
Nico De Boinville was described as, on occasions, 'agricultural' by Tom Scudamore in a recent Times article appraising the riding styles of the leading contenders for the David Power Jockeys' Cup; Nico was aboard the winner that day at Windsor and he rides Joyeuse for Nicky Henderson and owner J.P. McManus tomorrow.
The Henderson yard has a good record in this race with six previous wins: Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000 and 2004); Landing Light (2001); My Tent Or Yours (2013); and Iberico Lord (2024).
Grey mare Joyeuse goes off a mark of 123; in the past ten years the lowest official handicap rating of the winner was 132 (Violet Dancer in 2015).
Two mares have come home in front in the past 30 years: Mysilv (1995); and Spirit Leader (2003).
Navajo Indy, fourth at Windsor, won the Gerry Feilden over course and distance at the end of December (Our Champ third) and meets Secret Squirrel five pounds better off for a three length defeat; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.
The last horse to carry more than 11-08 to victory was Persian War in 1968 which means I haven't looked too closely at the chances of Lump Sum, Iberico Lord and Favour And Fortune.
Iberico Lord won this last year off a mark of 134 but things haven't gone to plan over the larger obstacles this season and he finished some 20 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Windsor three weeks ago.
Similarly the last horse older than seven to collect the spoils was Geos some 21 years ago so I haven't spent too much time looking at Aucunrisque, Washington, Go Dante and King William Rufus.
That said, the first-named made all to win the 2023 renewal off 138 and, back in November, won an Ascot handicap on good ground off 129 (Mirabad third and Williethebuilder pulled up).
He looks feasibly weighted off 133 but will need the rain to stay away.
I certainly wouldn't describe myself as au courant with French Flat form (or British Flat form for that matter) but Mirabad's second in a Listed race at Fointainebleau back in November 2023 over one mile seven furlongs looks respectable - he was headed in the final 50 yards.
And he has done well for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole since moving this side of La Manche.
Last time at Cheltenham on his second start in a handicap hurdle, the gelding decided he wanted none of the steady early pace set by Magic Seven, pulling his way to the front before the fourth flight and duly winning five and a half lengths.
The handicapper duly raised him 10 pounds.
Fiercely Proud brings strong form to the table.
On seasonal debut Ben Pauling's charge had come under pressure when falling two out in an Ascot handicap won by Our Champ.
He was subsequently sixth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood before pipping Kabral Du Mathan a short head in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas (Our Champ fifth, Favour And Fortune sixth, Go Dante pulled up and Secret Squirrel two lengths third when falling at the final flight).
He has been raised nine pounds for that win to a mark of 137 and probably prefers racing on a right-handed track.
Our Champ's defeat of Break My Soul by a nose at Ascot (Fiercely Proud fell) reads well, particularly as the stable was under a cloud at the time; Freddie Gordon dropped his whip on the run to the line that day but still managed to get the job done.
On Gerry Feilden running Our Champ meets Navajo Indy three pounds better off for a five length defeat which isn't reflected in market prices at the time of writing.
Beat The Bat had Josh The Boss in arrears when second behind Steel Ally over two miles three furlongs at Haydock in November before finishing seven and threequarters lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor.
Stable form has been a concern this season - odds on chances Anno Power and High Fibre have both been turned over in the past fortnight.
I like Josh The Boss but since 2023 he has been racing over trips around the two and a half mile mark - the step back to two miles may not help the cause.
I've never been convinced by Williethebuilder but Minella Missile, a half brother to Monbeg Genius, went in the notebook after winning a Cheltenham novice hurdle in November 2023.
At that time handler Evan Williams described him as a staying novice with a turn of foot but he's clearly had problems since; I'm surprised to see him entered up here - he's one for another day maybe.
I had the Harriet Dickin trained Dodger Long pencilled in for this but he never made the five day declarations and I was surprised by the absence of Tellherthename when the final field was announced on Thursday.
Two are on the each-way shortlist: Mirabad and Our Champ.
I've watched a recording of Mirabad's race at Cheltenham again and, to be perfectly honest, I don't quite know what to make it.
Several of those in behind - Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay - haven't turned up here but the grey Tintintin had previously finished fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood; as the gelding rounded the home turn that day the on-screen speed indicator read 35 mph.
A fast run two miles will suit his style of racing but this is a step up in class and a current mark of 130 is two pounds below the lowest rated winner of the last ten years.
Plenty of use was made of Our Champ on the front end at Ascot the last day (beaten 27 lengths into fifth behind Fiercely Proud); on Gerry Feilden form he's not too far behind Navajo Indy.
Our Champ gets the vote.
Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with the sponsors who pay five places; I've taken 22/1 with Paddy Power who are paying six places.
11 comments:
William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Joyeuse [FR], 160, 15/2
Lump Sum [FR], 158, 11/1
Minella Missile [IRE], 158, 14/1
Aucunrisque [FR], 157, 16/1
Givemefive [IRE], 157, 16/1
Josh The Boss [GB], 156, 18/1
Iberico Lord [FR], 156, 16/1
Our Champ [IRE], 155, 20/1
King William Rufus [FR], 155, 20/1
Navajo Indy [GB], 154, 18/1
Secret Squirrel [GB], 154, 16/1
Favour And Fortune [IRE], 154, 20/1
Beat The Bat [IRE], 153, 25/1
Mirabad [FR], 152, 25/1
Fiercely Proud [IRE], 151, 25/1
Williethebuilder [IRE], 150, 50/1
Washington [GB], 149, 33/1
Go Dante [GB], 149, 50/1
Competitive as ever, Our Champ has been mixing it in this type of race to good effect, though the handicapper may be catching up and I’d be concerned if the ground [good to soft, soft in places] gets any easier.
Unexposed Joyeuse could be anything but at the odds I’m lumping on Lump Sum being able to lump top weight to victory. Still progressing, won the Welsh Champion hurdle with more in hand than the margin indicated, effort in the Fighting Fifth (no match for the winner but don’t think he was too flattered by his proximity) suggests his 10lb rise in the handicap is not too harsh, back in calmer waters in this race, Dylan can claim his 3lbs, won’t mind the ground turning softer if the overnight rain is more than expected, at 22/1 5 places 1/5 odds he’s double the system tissue price and I’m optimistic of a run for my money.
Bonne chance!
TW
Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.
Bonne chance!
Sacre bleu, the market moves in mysterious ways!
Should we have a side bet on which one of our selections drifts the most in the betting before post time :-)
TW
Zut alors!
I see Lump Sum 35/1 in a place but Our Champ now 40/1 (five places) in several places. And Rob Wright has put up Mirabad in The Times...
Mon Dieu!
I took 30 exch Lump Sum. If he runs this like he did against the 157 El Gino, he'll probably run a 150 and win. The monster horse Constitution is on 175. He got about within 30l of him too. Woke up, he's at 33's and 65 on the exch. Nearly dropped my tea. But: If he wins, I'll be happy with 30, otherwise I shouldn't have took it.
Excellent run from Lump Sum.
Done by a plot horse..
C'est la vie!
I'd imagine the official handicapper won't sleep particularly well tonight after Joyeuse (9/2) went to the front just after two out and won the William Hill Hurdle eight lengths, giving Nicky Henderson his seventh win in the race.
A noteworthy effort from Lump Sum (16/1) in second, conceding 19 pounds to the winner, while Navajo Indy (6/1) finished third, Favour And Fortune (17/2) fourth and the well-backed Beat The Bat (10/1) fifth.
Racing in third 100/30 favourite Secret Squirrel came to grief at the final flight.
Selection Our Champ (33/1) proved easy to back on the day and was never better than midfield on the rain softened ground. He eventually came home in eighth, some 17 lengths behind the impressive winner who this evening is quoted a 10/1 chance for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham next month.
Call me a miserable old git but I have two points of order I'd like to raise about the media coverage of this race.
Firstly, I've just watched a recording of ITV's coverage with Richard Hoiles' commentary which confirmed the impression I'd garnered in-running - I think Richard would agree this wasn't his finest hour.
On *at least* two separate occasions, as Mirabad raced clear down the back straight and then came around the home turn, Hoiles called Our Champ (No 6) as the second horse when in actual fact it was stablemate King William Rufus (No 18) who was racing in second - somewhat painful from a personal perspective as I'd forlornly thrown a small amount of my own money at Our Champ. Hoiles corrected the error as they raced up the home straight.
Secondly, from Rob Wright's Weekend Guide on big-race trends for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (The Times 08.02.25):
"Iberico Lord bids to become the first dual winner since Rosyth landed the first two renewals in 1963-64."
Geos won this race in 2000 and 2004.
Feeling so much better now I've got that off my chest.
It strikes me even the commentators find big field jumps racing much more confusing than flat racing. Since I've paid attention more lately to the fences, I notice a lot more commentator error. I think there's more going on.
The form reading thing is twice as complicated too btw. Ground and weight and fences can make horses go from 32length defeats, then pulling up, to hacking up, in alternating races. My weight for lengths eyeball calculator is shot to pieces at the moment ;)
I've never really understood jumps form either, Sandracer. ;)
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