Everybody agrees - this race isn't a trial for the Grand National in April, so it's time to call it something else.
Ten have been declared to run over the extended three and a half mile trip; the going at the Lancashire track is currently described as good to soft but light rain is forecast throughout the day tomorrow.
Top weight and course specialist Royal Pagaille takes his chance with the result that half of the field race from out of the handicap.
During the day we have seen Val Dancer and Jubilee Express, first and second in the Welsh Grand National seven weeks ago, supplanted at the head of the market by Yeah Man and Git Maker.
Irish raider Yeah Man won this last year off a mark of 133 (with Famous Bridge unseating at the 17th fence when travelling well enough); Yeah Man goes off 144 tomorrow.
Git Maker races from five pounds out of the handicap off 133.
Jamie Snowden's charge finished third off that mark in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. On his first start this season he finished last of 12 in a handicap hurdle at Windsor four weeks ago; that looks like a preparatory run for this.
Val Dancer is six pounds 'wrong' at the weights, Jubilee Express eight, although Dylan Johnston's three pound claim reduces the deficit to five.
Royal Pagaille continues to drift in the market as he tries this trip for the first time.
At the age of 11 it looks a stiff task conceding a minimum of 17 pounds to all opponents but his record at Haydock reads 112111P.
On his penultimate start in the Betfair Chase in November his jumping wasn't quite as assured as we'd seen in the past and last time he didn't jump well at all before being pulled up.
With regular pilot Charlie Deutsch riding at Ascot, Sean Bowen has been called upon to do the pushing, the shoving and the steering.
Famous Bridge is two pounds 'wrong' but likes Haydock - his figures at the track read 11U3.
Nicky Richards' charge was a tad disappointing when only third behind Egbert and Jacks Parrot in the Tommy Whittle eight weeks ago. Sent off joint favourite with Yeah Man for this last year when rated 139, he unseated Sean Quinlan so remains unproven at the trip; connections try cheekpieces for the first time.
Where It All Began finds the fences getting in the way on occasions but on his penultimate start he was still in contention in the Welsh National - four lengths fourth - when sprawling on landing four from home.
Three mares take their chance: Apple Away, Galia Des Liteaux and Royal Pagaille's stablemate Fontaine Collonges.
Apple Away has been well backed during the day and is now generally a 6/1 shot.
She wouldn't be the biggest and I've never been totally convinced by her jumping of a fence - a quick look at her profile might suggest she has shown her best form over fences when racing right-handed.
Galia Des Liteaux and Fontaine Collonges finished behind Val Dancer and Jubilee Express in the Welsh National.
Galia Des Liteaux came home fifth, beaten 17 lengths, while Fontaine Collonges made little impression and was pulled up in the home straight when behind.
Off 142 Dan Skelton's charge went agonisingly close behind My Silver Lining in the 2024 running of the Classic Chase at Warwick, so looks feasibly treated here on 140 with Tristan Durrell claiming three.
Fontaine Collonges likes Haydock too - her figures at the track read 101.
On her penultimate start she beat Monbeg Genius 12 lengths here and that one won a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter last Saturday.
It's been a volatile market and there's probably more volatility to come.
I'm drawn to the chance of Galia Des Liteaux who stays the trip and races off her lowest mark since winning the Yorton Stallions Mares' Novices' Chase at Bangor in November 2022.
She meets Val Dancer 17 pounds better off than in the Welsh National (if I've done my calculations correctly) and is joint top-rated with Apple Away on Racing Post ratings.
Galia Des Liteaux is the each-way suggestion, currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes who pay three places.
7 comments:
Oddschecker Grand National Trial Handicap Chase
Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Royale Pagaille [FR], 178, 5/1
Galia Des Liteaux [FR], 177, 11/2
Apple Away [IRE], 175, 7/1
Fontaine Collonges [FR], 175, 17/2
Famous Bridge [IRE], 174, 9/1
Yeah Man [IRE], 173, 17/2
Val Dancer [IRE], 169, 14/1
Jubilee Express [FR], 167, 14/1
Git Maker [FR], 165, 18/1
Where It All Began [IRE], 153, 100/1
Delayed today, I think there may have been issues with the domains DNS earlier.
Royale Pagaille [178] tops the system ratings, top weight over an unproven trip with questions to answer after a below LTO effort at this track, he is overlooked. Next up is blog selection Galia Des Liteaux [177], the mare ticks all of the boxes, the handicapper has been kind enough to drop her mark by 2lbs, Tristan Durrell claims a further 3lbs and she looks set to run a big race. I missed the 10/1 but at those odds it looks a great bet.
Good luck!
TW
Yes, DNS issues confirmed, TW.
Thanks for providing your ratings.
Good luck with Fontaine Collonges, Sandracer!
My fat fingers accidentally deleted your original comment; apologies.
I should have asked you to put the bet on then ;). My one pulled up, or it's still out there somewhere running round Haydock woods, because it wasn't ever in the race.
Galia beaten when she belted that fence in the home straight.
Fairest straightest start I've seen in a jumps race. I think sometimes when a horse belts a fence like that, it must half wind them or something. On the flip side, I've noticed that when horses jump well, they seem to half get a breather while in the air. I guess that's why you don't get 3m 5f handicaps on the flat.
Galia Des Liteaux (17/2) set off with the leaders, went clear on her own after the fourth, and raced three lengths ahead of her field for much of the race.
Yeah Man (4/1), travelling well, came to challenge as they raced down the back straight for the final time but he pecked on landing at the fourteenth and unseated Sean Flanagan.
The field closed up rounding the home turn with Galia giving way at the first in the straight and then catching her hind legs in the third last, after which she fell away badly to come home fifth, beaten some 25 lengths.
The finish was fought out by Famous Bridge (6/1) and Apple Away (11/4f); Nicky Richards' charge scooted up the run-in to win three lengths.
Apple Away ran a strange race. Towards the rear as they went out on the final circuit, her chance looked to have gone but she started to make ground up the home straight; she couldn't catch the winner after the last.
Welsh National winner Val Dancer (10/1) was third with Git Maker (9/1) fourth - Jamie Snowden's inmate ruined any chance he had with an erratic round of jumping.
Top weight Royal Pagaille was sent off at 12/1. He looked a threat coming to the home turn but faded and finished sixth.
Post a Comment