Friday, February 14, 2025

The 2025 Grand National Trial at Haydock

Everybody agrees - this race isn't a trial for the Grand National in April, so it's time to call it something else.

Ten have been declared to run over the extended three and a half mile trip; the going at the Lancashire track is currently described as good to soft but light rain is forecast throughout the day tomorrow.

Top weight and course specialist Royal Pagaille takes his chance with the result that half of the field race from out of the handicap. 

During the day we have seen Val Dancer and Jubilee Express, first and second in the Welsh Grand National seven weeks ago, supplanted at the head of the market by Yeah Man and Git Maker.

Irish raider Yeah Man won this last year off a mark of 133 (with Famous Bridge unseating at the 17th fence when travelling well enough); Yeah Man goes off 144 tomorrow.

Git Maker races from five pounds out of the handicap off 133. 

Jamie Snowden's charge finished third off that mark in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. On his first start this season he finished last of 12 in a handicap hurdle at Windsor four weeks ago; that looks like a preparatory run for this.

Val Dancer is six pounds 'wrong' at the weights, Jubilee Express eight, although Dylan Johnston's three pound claim reduces the deficit to five.

Royal Pagaille continues to drift in the market as he tries this trip for the first time. 

At the age of 11 it looks a stiff task conceding a minimum of 17 pounds to all opponents but his record at Haydock reads 112111P.  

On his penultimate start in the Betfair Chase in November his jumping wasn't quite as assured as we'd seen in the past and last time he didn't jump well at all before being pulled up. 

With regular pilot Charlie Deutsch riding at Ascot, Sean Bowen has been called upon to do the pushing, the shoving and the steering.     

Famous Bridge is two pounds 'wrong' but likes Haydock - his figures at the track read 11U3. 

Nicky Richards' charge was a tad disappointing when only third behind Egbert and Jacks Parrot in the Tommy Whittle eight weeks ago. Sent off joint favourite with Yeah Man for this last year when rated 139, he unseated Sean Quinlan so remains unproven at the trip; connections try cheekpieces for the first time.   

Where It All Began finds the fences getting in the way on occasions but on his penultimate start he was still in contention in the Welsh National - four lengths fourth - when sprawling on landing four from home.

Three mares take their chance: Apple Away, Galia Des Liteaux and Royal Pagaille's stablemate Fontaine Collonges.

Apple Away has been well backed during the day and is now generally a 6/1 shot. 

She wouldn't be the biggest and I've never been totally convinced by her jumping of a fence - a quick look at her profile might suggest she has shown her best form over fences when racing right-handed.

Galia Des Liteaux and Fontaine Collonges finished behind Val Dancer and Jubilee Express in the Welsh National.

Galia Des Liteaux came home fifth, beaten 17 lengths, while Fontaine Collonges made little impression and was pulled up in the home straight when behind.

Off 142 Dan Skelton's charge went agonisingly close behind My Silver Lining in the 2024 running of the Classic Chase at Warwick, so looks feasibly treated here on 140 with Tristan Durrell claiming three.

Fontaine Collonges likes Haydock too - her figures at the track read 101. 

On her penultimate start she beat Monbeg Genius 12 lengths here and that one won a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter last Saturday.  

It's been a volatile market and there's probably more volatility to come.

I'm drawn to the chance of Galia Des Liteaux who stays the trip and races off her lowest mark since winning the Yorton Stallions  Mares' Novices' Chase at Bangor in November 2022. 

She meets Val Dancer 17 pounds better off than in the Welsh National (if I've done my calculations correctly) and is joint top-rated with Apple Away on Racing Post ratings.

Galia Des Liteaux is the each-way suggestion, currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes who pay three places.     

Friday, February 07, 2025

The 2025 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury

What's this? William Hill sponsoring the Betfair Hurdle? 

It used to be the Tote before that, didn't it? And, before that, Schhh... You Know Who. 

Anyway, the final field of eighteen for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.35) has some notable absentees including Tellherthename, Hansard and Bo Zenith.

The going at Newbury is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with light rain forecast overnight.

Favourite Secret Squirrel won the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle with something to spare on soft ground at Windsor three weeks ago (with Navajo Indy fourth, Beat The Bat seventh, Go Dante eleventh and Givemefive 30 lengths adrift in thirteenth place) and carries a five pounds penalty here.

Nico De Boinville was described as, on occasions, 'agricultural' by Tom Scudamore in a recent Times article appraising the riding styles of the leading contenders for the David Power Jockeys' Cup; Nico was aboard the winner that day at Windsor and he rides Joyeuse for Nicky Henderson and owner J.P. McManus tomorrow.

The Henderson yard has a good record in this race with six previous wins: Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000 and 2004); Landing Light (2001); My Tent Or Yours (2013); and Iberico Lord (2024).

Grey mare Joyeuse goes off a mark of 123; in the past ten years the lowest official handicap rating of the winner was 132 (Violet Dancer in 2015). 

Two mares have come home in front in the past 30 years: Mysilv (1995); and Spirit Leader (2003).

Navajo Indy, fourth at Windsor, won the Gerry Feilden over course and distance at the end of December (Our Champ third) and meets Secret Squirrel five pounds better off for a three length defeat; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

The last horse to carry more than 11-08 to victory was Persian War in 1968 which means I haven't looked too closely at the chances of Lump Sum, Iberico Lord and Favour And Fortune. 

Iberico Lord won this last year off a mark of 134 but things haven't gone to plan over the larger obstacles this season and he finished some 20 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Windsor three weeks ago.

Similarly the last horse older than seven to collect the spoils was Geos some 21 years ago so I haven't spent too much time looking at Aucunrisque, Washington, Go Dante and King William Rufus.

That said, the first-named made all to win the 2023 renewal off 138 and, back in November, won an Ascot handicap on good ground off 129 (Mirabad third and Williethebuilder pulled up). 

He looks feasibly weighted off 133 but will need the rain to stay away.

I certainly wouldn't describe myself as au courant with French Flat form (or British Flat form for that matter) but Mirabad's second in a Listed race at Fointainebleau back in November 2023 over one mile seven furlongs looks respectable - he was headed in the final 50 yards.

And he has done well for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole since moving this side of La Manche

Last time at Cheltenham on his second start in a handicap hurdle, the gelding decided he wanted none of the steady early pace set by Magic Seven, pulling his way to the front before the fourth flight and duly winning five and a half lengths. 

The handicapper duly raised him 10 pounds. 

Fiercely Proud brings strong form to the table.

On seasonal debut Ben Pauling's charge had come under pressure when falling two out in an Ascot handicap won by Our Champ. 

He was subsequently sixth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood before pipping Kabral Du Mathan a short head in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas (Our Champ fifth, Favour And Fortune sixth, Go Dante pulled up and Secret Squirrel two lengths third when falling at the final flight).

He has been raised nine pounds for that win to a mark of 137 and probably prefers racing on a right-handed track.

Our Champ's defeat of Break My Soul by a nose at Ascot (Fiercely Proud fell) reads well, particularly as the stable was under a cloud at the time; Freddie Gordon dropped his whip on the run to the line that day but still managed to get the job done.

On Gerry Feilden running Our Champ meets Navajo Indy three pounds better off for a five length defeat which isn't reflected in market prices at the time of writing.

Beat The Bat had Josh The Boss in arrears when second behind Steel Ally over two miles three furlongs at Haydock in November before finishing seven and threequarters lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor. 

Stable form has been a concern this season - odds on chances Anno Power and High Fibre have both been turned over in the past fortnight.

I like Josh The Boss but since 2023 he has been racing over trips around the two and a half mile mark - the step back to two miles may not help the cause.

I've never been convinced by Williethebuilder but Minella Missile, a half brother to Monbeg Genius, went in the notebook after winning a Cheltenham novice hurdle in November 2023. 

At that time handler Evan Williams described him as a staying novice with a turn of foot but he's clearly had problems since; I'm surprised to see him entered up here - he's one for another day maybe.

I had the Harriet Dickin trained Dodger Long pencilled in for this but he never made the five day declarations and I was surprised by the absence of Tellherthename when the final field was announced on Thursday.

Two are on the each-way shortlist: Mirabad and Our Champ.

I've watched a recording of Mirabad's race at Cheltenham again and, to be perfectly honest, I don't quite know what to make it. 

Several of those in behind - Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay - haven't turned up here but the grey Tintintin had previously finished fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood; as the gelding rounded the home turn that day the on-screen speed indicator read 35 mph. 

A fast run two miles will suit his style of racing but this is a step up in class and a current mark of 130 is two pounds below the lowest rated winner of the last ten years.

Plenty of use was made of Our Champ on the front end at Ascot the last day (beaten 27 lengths into fifth behind Fiercely Proud); on Gerry Feilden form he's not too far behind Navajo Indy. 

Our Champ gets the vote.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with the sponsors who pay five places; I've taken 22/1 with Paddy Power who are paying six places.