Cheltenham Festival 2025 - the betting debrief

This year seven of the blog's eight highlighted selections came under starter's orders over the four days - Langer Dan was a non-runner, declared to be suffering from a respiratory infection on the morning of the Stayers' Hurdle.

Shown below the recorded loss to level stakes (1 point win, 0.5 points each-way with each-way returns calculated to one fifth the odds):  

Outlay over four days: 7 points

Return over four days: 1.9 points

Profit / Loss: -5.1 points

Loss as percentage of outlay: 72.86%

Brief notes on individual selections:

Malina Girl (bet struck:14/1 each-way; third in Ultima)

Good run behind Myretown and The Changing Man. Winner impressive.

Herakles Westwood (bet struck: 20/1 each-way; seventh in National Hunt Challenge Cup)

Towards rear; never threatened.

Potters Charm (bet struck: 14/1 each-way; fifth in Turners)

Outpaced by market principals off home bend.

Libberty Hunter (bet struck: 33/1 each-way; fell in Champion Chase)

Four lengths down and creeping into contention when falling three out.

Primoz (bet struck: 20/1 each-way; fourteenth in Grand Annual)

Lost any chance in chaotic start.

Protektorat (bet struck: 6/1 win; fourth in Ryanair) 

Outpaced from three out; winner Fact To File impressive.

Our Champ (bet struck: 50/1 each-way; sixth in County Hurdle)

Led; tapped for toe off home bend, stayed on up the hill. 

The Champion Hurdle set the tone for a dramatic week with the two former winners in the field, Constitution Hill and State Man, both falling, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. Golden Ace, trained by Jeremy Scott, picked up the pieces.

Inothewayurthinkin denied Galopin Des Champs a third victory in the Gold Cup while Fact To File put up an imperious display in the Ryanair.   

Marine Nationale, forever associated with Michael O'Sullivan, proved a fitting winner of the Champion Chase while Bob Olinger denied Teahupoo in the Stayers' Hurdle.

The final result of the Prestbury Cup: Great Britain 8 Ireland 20

Just one British trained runner contested the Supreme and there were no British entries in a final field of seven in the Brown Advisory. 

Once again Willie Mullins was the leading trainer at the Festival, equalling his previous record total of 10 winners. He fielded 11 of the 18 runners in the Triumph and won it with 100/1 shot Poniros who was racing over hurdles for the very first time. 

Shambolic starts and the drop in attendance figures are two topics we're likely to hear more about in the coming days.  

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Friday

Earlier today Frank Keogh reported that the attendance on Wednesday was the lowest seen at the Festival since 1993.

Fact To File looked something special in the Ryanair this afternoon and, in other news, Frankie Dettori has announced he's filing for bankruptcy...

Malina Girl ran a creditable third on Tuesday but otherwise it has been a miserable, downward spiral for the blog's selections. Only one pick for the final day - and I'm not confident it's going to turn the tide... 

1.20 Triumph Hurdle

No bet for me in a race I'm not particularly fond of. 

Willie Mullins saddles 11 of the 18 runners; Paul Townend rides filly Lady Vega Allen. 

Tom Segal penned a piece in the RP Weekender [29.01-02.02] headlined "Flat-bred East India Dock set to find Triumph beyond him". To summarise, most of the current Flat bred horses aren't bred to stay any further than a mile whereas Jumps bred horses are stronger - and classier. 

Tom believes East India Dock won't be strong (or classy) enough to compete with the likes of Lulamba or a yet-to-be-revealed Mullins marvel.

Last time out East India Dock beat Stencil 10 lengths over the Triumph Hurdle course and distance on Trials Day; Stencil, sent off 11/4 favourite for the Fred Winter on Tuesday, finished down the field in 15th, with the comment 'weakened before the last' noted.

As a slight digression, I see East India Dock had a Flat rating of 89, Mondo Man a Flat rating of 111. 

The issue for the Gary Moore trained Mondo Man is he needs to learn to settle - he patently failed to do so in the Adonis at Kempton three weeks ago. On his previous run, in receipt of 10 pounds, he finished three and a half lengths behind Lulamba, despite having pulled hard in rear; he's in the same ownership as Botox Has and Nassalam.

Back in 2020 the same yard ran Goshen  - Flat rating of 80 at the time - in this race; ten lengths clear coming to the last, he made a mistake and dumped Jamie Moore on the turf. 

Connections fit a hood for the first time tomorrow and Brian Hughes replaces Caoilin Quinn in the saddle. I'll keep an eye out for the partnership during the race - a decent pace should help their cause.

2.00 County Hurdle

Sixteen declared. 

Absurde won this last year off 138 before embarking on a Flat campaign that culminated in a trip to Australia; this year he goes off 146. 

Willie Mullins' charge benefits from a hold-up ride and likes to weave his way through the field at the business end of a race. Last time out he finished fifth in the Melbourne Cup behind Knight's Choice, beaten under two lengths.

Paul Townend rides stablemate Kargese. Last time out this one was beaten at odds of 2/5f in the Warfield Mares' Hurdle run on good ground at Ascot. Since 2010 the Mullins yard has trained the winner of this on seven occasions.

The Skelton yard regularly targets this race and have had plenty of success in recent years with Superb Story (2016); Mohaayed (2018); Ch'tibello (2019) and Faivoir (2023). Valgrand flies the flag this year but he ran no sort of race when last seen behind Ooh Betty at Kempton over Christmas.

Hansard was fourth in that Kempton race and subsequently ran well behind Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday!) in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. The yard is in better form now, operating at a 25% win strike rate over the past fortnight.

Cracking Rhapsody looked good in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso 13 days ago; connections will pick up a bonus if they win here but Ewan Whillans' charge has tended to show his very best form at Kelso. 

I'm going to have a bet on Our Champ in this because I think he's overpriced at 50/1 provided the ground has dried out sufficiently and the showers stay away. 

Back in October he won the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle run on good ground at Ascot, beating Break My Soul a nose with Secret Squirrel third, Afadil fourth and Fiercely Proud falling when disputing second. 

The yard were going through a lean spell at the time - as they are now - but he got the job done that day despite Freddie Gordon dropping his whip in the final 110 yards. 

Secret Squirrel has subsequently won a competitive handicap at Windsor, Afadil was third in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last Saturday while Fiercely Proud reversed form with the selection in the Ladbrokes at Ascot in December run on good to soft ground.

I bet Our Champ in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury five weeks ago where soft ground went against him; he finished eighth behind Joyeuse (Secret Squirrel fell at the last, Fiercely Proud pulled up and later found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat).

He ran without the tongue-tie at Newbury but it's back in place now. He has won on the Old Course here and ran third behind Tintintin on the New Course last April.

In a stable tour article [RP Weekender 26.02-02.03] handler Chris Gordon said:

"He'll go for the County Hurdle and he'll run really well if it dries up."

At the time of writing the going on the New Course is good to soft - the showers will need to stay away before the off.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 50/1 with William Hill and bet365, both paying five places. 

4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Galopin Des Champs will face eight rivals in his bid to win a third successive Gold Cup. 

Henrietta Knight, who trained Best Mate to achieve the feat (2002 -2004), thinks he will win.

Banbridge is no pushover on drying ground while course and distance winner Inothewayurthinkin, supplemented at a cost of £25,000, is 7/1 favourite for the Aintree Grand National.

Inothewayurthinkin and Monty's Star were fourth and fifth respectively behind Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Corbetts Cross didn't appear to have the best prep behind Pic D'Orhy at Ascot last month and wouldn't be suited by drying ground while The Real Whacker and Gentlemansgame were both pulled up in this race last year.

Ahoy Senor has shown his best form at Aintree, Royal Pagaille at Haydock.

At 6/1 Banbridge was an each-way bet to nothing but the price has disappeared; a race to watch and savour then.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Thursday

An emotional second day with victories for Marine Nationale in the Champion Chase and Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual.

Two days in, and there have been some unsatisfactory starts to races - a debate for another day, no doubt.

A couple of suggestions for Thursday...

3.20 Ryanair Chase

A hot looking renewal.

Favourite Fact To File won the Brown Advisory here last year despite jumping right on occasions. 

He beat the current Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs over two miles three and a half in November and has since twice finished behind Galopin Des Champs over an extended three miles at Leopardstown - no disgrace at all - in the Savills Chase over Christmas and in the Irish Gold Cup last month.

I'm guessing connections have reasoned they're not going to beat Galopin Des Champs so they step back in trip here. Connections of last year's winner, Protektorat, followed a similar path after finishing fifth behind the same horse in the 2023 Gold Cup.

Protektorat did the blog a favour in this race last year and this has been his target. 

Things went awry in the Peterborough Chase won by Djelo where hold-up tactics patently failed to work. Allowed to bowl along in front at Windsor next time, Dan Skelton's charge comfortably beat that rival 23 lengths. 

He is seen at his best sitting just off a strong pace which he's likely to get with Il Est Francais in the field.

Il Est Francais went into everyone's notebook when jumping like a stag to make all and win the 2023 renewal of the Kauto Star at Kempton; he might prove difficult to catch on the front end. Since moving to Tom George in 2022 all his racing has been at either Auteuil or Kempton Park.

Henry De Bromhead saddles three; the yard is slowly emerging from a lean spell. 

Jungle Boogie may be 11 years of age but he doesn't have many miles on the clock (just five chase starts to date). Sixth in last year's Gold Cup - mistake three out when travelling well enough - he's another to step back in distance. On his sole start since, he won comfortably at Ascot in December although main rival Iroko (11/8f) was hampered and came a cropper at the first.

Envoi Allen, another 11 year old, won the 2023 renewal of this race and finished second behind Protektorat last year. Rachael Blackmore rides, suggesting this one might be the stable's main hope.

Heart Wood finished seven and a half lengths adrift of Fact To File in the Savills Chase over Christmas.

Master Chewy showed plenty of resolve when beating Libberty Hunter in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time; this represents his first chase start beyond two miles one furlong.

Hang In There likes decent ground but on his first run since November he's likely to have other targets during the spring / summer. 

Only three horses older than nine have won this since the inaugural running in 2005: Fondmort (2006); Our Vic (2008); and Albertas Run (2011). 

I'm staying loyal to Protektorat.

Protektorat is the win selection, generally a 6/1 shot.

4.00 Stayers' Hurdle

Teahupoo won this last year but could prove vulnerable on drying ground. 

Handler Joseph O'Brien had a strong word for Home By The Lee in a TV snippet on Tuesday..

Connections seem confident Lucky Place can stay this trip. He gave weight and a beating to Gowel Road, Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday), and Langer Dan on New Year's Day.

Off a mark of 145 The Wallpark gave Gowel Road four pounds and a two and a half length beating in a Pertemps qualifier over course and distance in the autumn. He made up plenty of ground late on in the Long Walk to finish fourth behind Crambo last time; drying ground will suit.

Langer Dan isn't the easiest to predict but he tends to show his best form at this time of year. Second behind a horse called Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 renewal of the Martin Pipe, he won the Coral Cup in 2023 and 2024 and steps up to three miles for the first time.

Dan Skelton said in a stable tour before the start of the core season:

"I do have concerns about how he behaves in the autumn and the winter because historically he hasn't been good. 

"He just gets a lot easier in the spring...

"Unless the first thee runs are absolutely diabolical we want to have a go at the Stayers' Hurdle."

Bob Olinger has twice finished behind Home By The Lee this season.

If Crambo could transfer his Ascot form to Cheltenham (won the last two renewals of the Long Walk Hurdle) he would be no 28/1 shot. Johnny Burke reported he ran flat in this last year when ninth while a bad mistake at the fifth last saw him finish fifth behind Gowel Road in the Cleeve on Trials Day (Monmiral second but declared a non-runner).

Nemean Lion has been in rude health this term, winning at Windsor in January (Langer Dan fifth) and beating Steel Ally a neck in the National Spirit at Fontwell. He steps up to three miles for the first time here, having been withdrawn from the Rendlesham at Haydock last month on account of the ground. 

After the National Spirit connections were reportedly thinking of bypassing this meet but have clearly had a change of heart. At the time Kerry Lee said:

"What a tough little cookie. Neman Lion loves racing and loves a fight.

"I think this gives me three possibilities. We might look at Auteuil, Fairyhouse and then there's of course the option of a Grade 1 at Aintree, whether over two and a half miles or three. He had a hard race so we'll have to see how he is in a couple of weeks." 

The suspicion is this may come too soon after the Fontwell race.

Buddy One was fourth in this race last year, beaten under nine lengths, but he doesn't appear to have taken too well to chasing this term. Last time out, reverting back to hurdles, he was pulled up behind Rocky Diamond in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park.

At 6/1 Home By The Lee looks an each-way bet to nothing against Teahupoo; The Wallpark has been well supported today.

It's inherently risky but I'm going to chance Langer Dan; he appeared to stay three miles when third behind Strong Leader in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and this was the stated plan in the autumn. 

Two consecutive wins in the Coral Cup read well; I'll be hoping the horse has engaged 'spring' mode.  

Langer Dan is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally, with most layers paying four places. 

I won't have a bet in the prosaically named TrustATrader Plate (4.40) but I've seen a comment somewhere yet have struggled to dig it out... 

Connections think course and distance winner Jagwar is a Graded level performer. If that's the case, he'll need to go close in this handicap off his current mark.

Finally, I note that Aworkinprogress, having missed the cut for the National Hunt Challenge Cup on Tuesday, has missed the cut for the Kim Muir at 5.20 but he holds an entry in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on Saturday for which he is currently priced up 6/1 favourite.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Wednesday

Still recovering from the high drama of the Champion Hurdle earlier this afternoon in which the two previous winners, Constitution Hill and State Man, both fell, the former four from home, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. 

Golden Ace (25/1) won, with Burdett Road (66/1) second and Winter Fog (150/1) third; the trifecta paid £4,432. 90.

1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle

Writing in the RP Weekender before the Dublin Racing Festival, Tom Segal was of the opinion The New Lion was the most exciting novice seen this season. Then Final Demand beat Wingmen 12 lengths in impressive style at Leopardstown. 

At the time of writing Final Demand and The New Lion share favouritism.

Yellow Clay beat Wingmen 11 lengths at Naas at the beginning of the year. 

In receipt of five pounds Sixmilebridge beat Potters Charm eight and a half lengths on the New Course on Trials Day. After the race Team Twiston-Davies admitted they had run there 'as an afterthought' and regretted doing so.  

Before that defeat Potters Charm had won twice on the Old Course in the autumn and then won the Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day. 

Back on the Old Course, and sporting a first-time tongue-tie, Potters Charm rates an each-way play.

Potters Charm is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing available at 14/1 with most layers. 

4.00 Champion Chase

Over the years I've had some wagers in this: Pearlyman, Latalomne - going well and fell two out two years on the trot, Special Tiara and, in 2004, Venn Ottery each-way @ 40/1. 

Owner Mr O.J. Carter declared Venn Ottery for the race without telling trainer, Mr P. Nicholls; unfortunately Mr Carter didn't declare the tongue-tie... 

The notes in-running state: "disputed second and going well two out, soon no chance with winner (Azertyuiop), ridden and weakened rapidly run-in."

Venn Ottery eventually finished fifth, beaten 23 lengths, but to this day I still maintain, if he had run with a tongue-tie, as intended...

Favourites have only won three of the past ten renewals but Jonbon has had a season to remember, winning the Schloer, the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House (Energumene second); many will feel he would be a deserved winner.

He was declared a non-runner for last year's renewal on account of the poor form of the Henderson yard at the time; prior to that he hadn't jumped well on the New Course when mugged by Elixir Du Nutz in the re-arranged Clarence House.

Energumene, owned by Tony Bloom, beat Captain Guinness 10 lengths in the 2023 renewal and isn't lightly dismissed, even at the age of 11. 

Mr Bloom also owns the heavily backed Bunting who has his first run in a handicap in the Coral Cup (2.40); given a mark of 135 by the Irish handicapper, he races off 139 in that two mile five contest. 

At Leopardstown over Christmas Solness beat Marine Nationale (third), Captain Guinness (fifth) and Found A Fitfy (pulled up). 

Then at the Dublin Racing Festival Joseph O'Brien's charge beat Marine Nationale (second), Quilixios (fourth) and Captain Guinness (sixth) - that looked a hard enough race on yielding ground and Marine Nationale posed a viable threat after the last.

Found A Fifty gave Solness seven pounds and a neck beating at Navan in November despite jumping right on occasions; that tendency to go right won't help his cause here. 

I'm pleased to see connections of Libberty Hunter have opted for this rather than the Grand Annual in which he was second last year (behind Unanswered Prayers) on just his fourth start over fences. 

Owners Mr & Mrs William Rucker have adopted a patient approach with this one; he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock for a nine year old. Ideally he wants softer ground but the uphill finish should play to his strengths and I think he can outrun odds of 33/1 - provided he can keep tabs on the early pace. 

The ratings tells us he has something to find with every other runner in this field but I like this horse and will have a bet.

Libberty Hunter is the each-way selection, 33/1 generally. 

4.40 Grand Annual

I'm going to take an interest in Primoz on the back of this comment made by trainer Lucinda Russell at Kelso on 14.02.25:

"Primoz is one of the most talented horses we've dealt with and we've changed his training programme a bit. I don't know where he'll go next but he's a very talented horse if we can get some consistency into him." 

I wrote that just before the yard's Myretown proved a blot on the handicap in the Ultima earlier today.

Primoz is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 in places with layers paying five places.

I'll pass on the Brown Advisory - a final field of seven all trained in Ireland -  and I usually end up feeling a bit dizzy after the Cross Country. My nap for the bumper, Windbeneathmywings, is out injured. That's racing, as they say. 

This evening spare a thought for Paul Townend. Five lengths clear coming to the last and another Champion Hurdle beckons. A long stride, a hurdle clipped, State Man falls, and it all disappears before your very eyes.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Tuesday

I'm struggling to recall a run-up to the Festival quite like it.

Greg Wood talks of the Festival at a crossroads in The Guardian while Cheltenham's new chief executive, Guy Lavender, predicts a fall in attendance from last year's figure of 229,999 (over four days).

The Sunday Times' royal editor Roya Nikkhah, in conversation with Nicky Henderson, talks of 'the 70,000-strong crowd expected on the first day'; that figure might prove optimistic.

Layers are reportedly bracing themselves as the following first day accumulator has proved popular with punters: Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme); Majboro (Arkle); Lossiemouth (Mares' Hurdle); and Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle).

Beware bookmakers crying wolf.

Just two British trained runners contest the Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20), the race this year named in memory of the jockey who won the 2023 renewal aboard Marine Nationale and died from injuries sustained in a fall at Thurles on February 6th.

Tripoli Flyer, trained by Fergal O'Brien, didn't jump particularly well when winning the Dovecote at Kempton 17 days ago but after the race his handler said:

"Tripoli Flyer has got a huge engine. Johnny [Burke] said you can put him where you want in a race, he's got an explosive bit of speed about him.

"I think he's genuinely better going right-handed and he does jump a bit right, but if it's nice ground I think he's earned his chance to go to the Supreme." 

Paul Nicholls saddles Tutti Quanti; on his blog the handler says:

"...on all known form he has a mountain to climb in this Grade 1."

Majboro faces just four opponents in the Arkle (2.00), Constitution Hill six in the Champion Hurdle (4.00). 

In receipt of the mares' allowance Brighterdaysahead looks a threat to the current champion whose speed over the hurdles is a sight to behold; I've no intention of having a bet in the race.  

For those considering a wager in a handicap, Kevin Blake provides a useful analysis of the marks allocated to Irish trained runners, along with a potted history of the trials and tribulations encountered by British and Irish handicappers in recent times.

Two each-way suggestions for Tuesday; the going on the Old Course is described as good to soft.

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Before his last run in the Reynoldstown three and a half weeks ago, The Changing Man had contested a number of competitive handicaps during the season, finishing second in the Rehearsal at Newcastle, second in the Howden Silver Cup at Ascot and second in the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster. 

By comparison, the win in the Reynoldstown had the look of a genteel schooling session with odds-on favourite and main rival Jingko Blue sprawling on landing at the third and unseating Nico De Boinville; the handicapper reacted by raising The Changing Man two pounds. 

Course and distance winner Broadway Boy likes to race from the front and was an excellent second behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury late in November, with Victtorino third and Henry's Friend fifth. 

Perhaps that race took more out of him than initially thought as he didn't jump well at the track on New Year's Day. He has been given every chance to recuperate.

Prior to the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton I'm sure I heard Sam Thomas describe runaway winner Katate Dori as 'slow'. He looked anything but that day, beating Hyland an eased-down 15 lengths. 

12 pounds higher in the handicap now, he has done a lot of his racing on right-handed tracks.

Both Lucinda Russell trained runners look unexposed. 

Myretown likes to race from the front whereas Whistle Stop Tour gained experience at the track last time when fifth behind Jagwar over a trip shorter than ideal. 

The trainer nominated the latter as her lively outsider of the week in the RP Cheltenham The Ultimate Guide publication.

Victtorino had a hard enough race when beating Threeunderthrufive a nose at Ascot 24 days ago while Henry's Friend meets Broadway Boy on worse terms than in the Coral Gold Cup.

Two under consideration are Malina Girl and Famous Bridge.

Malina Girl has run well here previously and back in December 2023 looked a threat to all when coming to grief three out in a race won by Broadway Boy; she was on a mark of 146 that day and goes off 142 tomorrow. The last Irish trained winner of this was Dun Doire in 2006.

Famous Bridge, fourth in this last year off 139, goes off 142 after scooting away from Apple Away to win the Grand National Trial at Haydock 24 days ago. First-time cheekpieces seemed to bring out improvement last time and they're retained here.

Malina Girl is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 generally, with several layers paying six places. 

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have both won three renewals in the past ten years; this is the first year the race will be run as a handicap.

Favourite Now Is The Hour beat Don't Rightly Know 17 lengths in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices' Hurdle at Haydock 12 months ago. On his four subsequent starts - all over fences - he hasn't  got his head in front but he couldn't quite reach the leaders at Navan seven weeks ago. 

Haiti Couleurs beat Transmission two and threequarters length at Cheltenham back in December over an extended three mile one furlong trip; they look closely matched. The fourth that day, Moon D'Orange, beat Grandeur D;Ame a short head in a handicap at the track on Trials Day.

I've just watched a replay of that race in December - Haiti Couleurs showed up prominently and jumped well while Transmission was slightly detached in rear for much of the trip, jumping low and out to his right on occasions. In addition he appeared slow at a couple of fences but the further they went, the more involved he became - the extra half mile here looks sure to suit.

Rebecca Curtis said of Haiti Couleurs [RP Weekender 05-09.02.25]:

"... the National Hunt Chase is the plan. I think it'll be the perfect race for him because I think the further he goes the better he'll be. We probably won't run before the festival to try to keep the mark of 135, although we have the option of a spin over hurdles." [third behind Santos Blue, Newbury, 08.02.25.]

Will Do was second over three miles three furlongs in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown 19 days ago. He looks Gordon Elliott's best chance; Jack Kennedy rides, having returned from injury on March 3rd.

Aworkinprogress has just missed the cut but is four from four over fences, winning at Lingfield last time; he's a horse for next year.

Resplendent Grey didn't jump particularly well behind Jagwar last time but has been the subject of market support.

Herakles Westwood won well at Windsor on his penultimate start (Gericault Roque third, Kyntara pulled up) and then ran flat at Newbury next time - I think he's better than he showed there. The step up in trip is a bit of a step into the unknown.

Gericault Roque has clearly had problems but back in 2022 he finished second in the Classic Chase at Warwick off 133, second in the Ultima behind Corach Rambler off 138 and third behind Le Milos in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 139. His third at Windsor in January was his first run in more than two years.

With Gericault Roque as low as 8/1 at the time of writing, I'm going to chance Herakles Westwood.

Herakles Westwood is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

Sandown's 2025 Imperial Cup

It's a spirited soul who saunters into the surreal world of slots.

Back in October 2020 Mrs Corrine Durber thought she had won a 'monster jackpot' totalling £1,097,132.71 on a Paddy Power slot described as 'a combination of a fruit machine and a wheel-of-fortune style game'.

Claiming a mapping error, Paddy Power only paid out the daily jackpot of £20,265.15 so Mrs Durber decided to sue PPB Entertainment. 

Earlier this week, four and a half years later, Mr Justice Ritchie ruled in her favour.

Mrs Durber said:

"I will never bet with them ever again."

At one point in court, Philip Hinks, counsel for PPB Entertainment, said what was shown on a customer's screen was irrelevant 'wallpaper'.

In the past, when I've tried using a similar line with my bank, I've been given extremely short shrift...   

Anyway, enough; take a look at this Tom Segal quotation from this week's RP Weekender:

"...it's just that on most Saturdays there are better betting opportunities for a value-based approach than there are throughout the whole of the Cheltenham Festival." 

With comments like that I thought I'd take the hint, have a stab at tomorrow's Imperial Cup (2.25 Sandown), and, in the process, generate my own irrelevant wallpaper. 

17 have been declared; the going on the hurdles track is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

This year there's a bonus on offer - the first time since 2021: £100,000 to the winner of this who goes on to win any race at Cheltenham next week. 

The following horses hold Festival entries: Afadil (County); Batman Girac (County); Bo Zenith (Coral Cup / Martin Pipe); Go Dante (County); Knickerbockerglory (County); Lump Sum (County); Ooh Betty (County); Spirits Bay (Coral Cup); Tapley (Jack Richards / Martin Pipe); and We're Red And Blue (County).

Lump Sum takes his chance with the result that the handicap has a lop-sided look to it; just four in the field carry more than 11-00 and only six are rated above the lowest rated winner of the past ten years - London Prize won off 128 in 2017.

Two potentially well-handicapped runners are Go Dante and Afadil.

Go Dante pipped Faivoir a nose to win last year's renewal off a mark of 129 and goes off 127 tomorrow.

Needless to say, Olly Murphy's charge hasn't been in such good form this term but his seventh place behind facile winner Joyeuse in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury four weeks ago (Lump Sum second, King William Rufus sixth) hinted at a possible return to form. Since 2000 only one nine-year-old has come home in front - Scorned in 2004. 

Afadil won the 2024 running of the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh off a mark of 124, and then, racing off a mark of 130 next time, finished fifth in the corresponding race at the Cheltenham Festival, under five lengths behind Absurde.

Last time out he was beaten a length by Welsh Charger in this year's Scottish County Hurdle and has been raised two pounds for that effort - to 122.

At the time of writing Bo Zenith heads the market; this one has had two outings since moving from Gary Moore's yard in October and both represent pertinent pieces of form.

On seasonal debut he finished third behind Mirabad in the Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (Wreckless Eric second, To Chase A Dream fourth, Spirits Bay fifth and Tintintin sixth).  

Next time he appeared outpaced on better ground over and extended two miles three when fifth behind Altobelli at Ascot.

Wreckless Eric has made good progress since moving from Ben Pauling's yard in the autumn; he will appreciate drying ground but stable form is still something of a concern.

Having won over an extended two miles three at Doncaster, To Chase A Dream is likely to appreciate Sandown's stiff finish.

Last time out Spirits Bay finished third behind Constitution Hill in the International Hurdle and has been well supported in the market.

Despite his price Tintintin brings respectable form to the table - third behind runaway winner Pickanumber in the Swinton last May (Tapley second, Afadil eleventh) and fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood (Go Dante ninth).

Bought for 150,000 euros, Batman Girac  has yet to win a race for Simon Munir and Isaac Souede; last time the gelding was three lengths down and staying on when falling at the final flight in a Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Course and distance winner Knickerbockerglory beat Nemean Lion eight lengths on seasonal debut - that reads well - and finished third behind Secret Squirrel on soft ground at Windsor seven weeks ago (Hardy Du Seuil fifth, Wreckless Eric sixth, Go Dante eleventh). 

Ooh Betty also boasts course and distance winning form and ran well in a Grade 2 Mares' Hurdle on good ground at Ascot last time, leading off the home turn but losing two places on the run-in, eventually finishing third behind Take No Chances and Kargese.

On his blog Paul Nicholls reports Sorceleur 'took a blow before keeping on to finish third' behind Jurancon at Newbury last week. There has been some market support this evening.

That one races from one pound out of the handicap, as does We're Red And Blue, stablemate of Wreckless Eric, while Big Ginge goes from five pounds out of the handicap and remains a maiden.

Hardy Du Seuil ran well for Will Featherstone when fifth behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor - the pair were beaten just three lengths - and the partnership is renewed tomorrow. Drying ground looks a negative for this one.

Tapley has mixed hurdling and chasing this term. His second in the Swinton looks good; prior to that he had finished fourth behind Tintintin in a conditional and amateur riders' race at Cheltenham. 

In a race that often goes the way of a five or six-year old, I'm going for one that will appreciate the better ground. 

King William Rufus ran well on soft ground in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last month, eventually finishing sixth. Handler Chris Gordon said about his charge in the RP Weekender [26.02-02.03.25]:

"The ground wouldn't have been in his favour in the William Hill Hurdle last time. He seems to prefer better ground, but he still ran an absolute blinder to finish sixth. I think if he'd jumped the second-last better, he'd have probably finished fourth, which would have meant a bit more prize-money. I was pleased with the way he ran and I might look at the Imperial Cup if the ground dries up."

The yard haven't had a winner for 25 days; I'm hoping King William Rufus will give me a run for my money.

King William Rufus is the each-way selection, 16/1 generally at the time of writing but William Hill offer 18/1 and pay five places. 

The 2025 Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster

Fourteen were originally declared for tomorrow's renewal of the Grimthorpe but King Turgeon is now a non-runner, leaving thirteen to face the starter at 3.15; the going on the chase course is currently described as good, good to soft in places.

King Turgeon was one of three runners I thought might prefer more cut underfoot, the other two being Surrey Quest and, possibly, Undersupervision.

Back in 2022 the ground was soft underfoot when Undersupervision, six years old at the time, beat Mister Malarky in this race off a mark of 132; it remains the only chase the gelding has won in 18 attempts and was the first time a horse younger than eight had come home in front since Knight Templar won in 2000.

In the 2023 renewal Moroder, racing from one pound out of the handicap proper, pipped Undersupervision a neck on good ground. 

In last year's renewal only two of the ten to start completed with Does He Know staying on dourly under top weight to deny Some Scope; Undersupervision was pulled up.

It's no surprise to see Some Scope at the head of the market on ground he's likely to appreciate and a mark just two pounds higher than last year. 

On his penultimate start he had the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in safe-keeping approaching the last, although Charlie Maggs' seven pound claim meant he was receiving 21 pounds from runner-up Kinondo Kwetu.

Undersupervision is one of three runners for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

According to the market Weveallbeencaught is the yard's best chance, with son Sam in the plate. 

The horse spent some time with Christian Williams in the autumn but returned to Naunton in January and beat Rock My Way in a five-runner novice handicap at this track five weeks ago. 

He made most that day; watching a replay, I thought his jumping was safe rather than assured on occasions although he appeared to warm to the task in hand as the race progressed. This represents a stiffer test.

I've as much time for stablemate The Kniphand whose third behind Monbeg Genius and Richmond Lake on soft ground at Uttoxeter last time reads well.

This one went into my notebook back at the beginning of October when he won a three mile novice handicap on good, good to firm ground, at Southwell, beating the previous course record by (an astonishing) 12 seconds. 

I've checked that again; the results section from the RP Weekender states:

"An extremely fast time, 12 secs faster than the previous course record."  

There were a number of fast times recorded that day: Nevendon won the opener in just over a second under standard, and both Harry's Hope and Sunshine Diamond also established new course records.

Still... Food for thought, as they say.

Last time out White Rhino ran in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day; he wasn't too slick at the first and then made a mistake at the third, unseating Henry Brooke in the process. 

Unexposed, he could prove better than these but with just three chase starts to his name I'm not tempted. Although he won a three mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in December 2023, much of his racing to date has been over a shorter trip.

It looks as though connections of top weight Twig have been trying to take advantage of a more lenient hurdle mark with three runs over the smaller obstacles so far this term.

This one tends to race up with the pace; his second behind Chianti Classico in last year's Ultima reads well, as does his win in the 2023 Uttoxeter Summer Cup. 

Trainer Ben Pauling has indicated the horse needs to run once to qualify for this season's Grand National and this is that run. His chance is respected. 

Surrey Quest holds an entry in the Aintree Grand National and, should he fail to make the cut, the Scottish National will be the target, a race in which he was beaten a nose by Macdermott last April.

Writing in the RP Weekender [12-16.02.25], handler Toby Lawes said:

"He has a Grand National entry but I don't think he'll get in.

"He probably had to win at Musselburgh to give us a live chance (finished third behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National), but we'll see. We've always got the Scottish National, in which he was beaten only a nose last year. That's always been plan A for this season and I'd think he'd have a serious chance in that. 

"I'll probably consider something like the Grimthorpe for his next run... 

"If he's sound and well, I'd be very happy to get another run into him and something like the Grimthorpe wouldn't be a marathon slog either."   

Hymac finished second behind Henry's Friend in the Mandarin at Newbury (Surrey Quest unseated rider) but the in-running comment 'Didn't always jump with fluency' tells its own tale. Connections will hope the fitting of first-time cheekpieces will help the cause.

Erne River, Fidelio Vallis and Lord Baddesley are runners who wouldn't be guaranteed to see out the trip. 

The last-named moved to from Chris Gordon to Anthony Honeyball's yard at the beginning of November and looks feasibly treated from a handicapping perspective but hasn't won for two years.

Outsider Monte Igueldo hasn't won since he moved down the road from Oliver Greenall to Gary Hanmer's yard in Tattenhall, Cheshire. 

His third at odds of 125/1 in last year's Summer Cup at Uttoxeter behind Hang In There reads well, as does his second behind Kinondo Kwetu over the same course and distance four weeks later.

On a couple of lines through Kinondo Kwetu that admittedly wouldn't stand up to too much close scrutiny - in this season's Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby -  he's entitled to be competitive with Some Scope. 

Although seventh behind Victtorino over three miles at Ascot two weeks ago, he was beaten under eight lengths and the time before, when third at Bangor on soft ground, he raced without the declared tongue-tie. 

More than likely at some stage in tomorrow's proceedings he'll be outpaced but, if first-time cheekpieces help, he can outrun odds of 40/1.

Plenty of imponderables but I like The Kniphand from a stable in form; Finn Lambert claims three and has been on board for four of the gelding's five victories to date.

The Kniphand is the each-way suggestion, 10/1 generally at the time of writing with most layers paying four places.

The 2025 Eider Chase

Eighteen have been declared for tomorrow's Eider Chase (2.10 Newcastle) with the going currently described as good to soft, soft in places. 

Collectors Item carries top weight; I've still to forgive myself for missing him in the Somerset National at Wincanton last time - he won at odds of 14/1 - having given a clear indication of a return to form on his previous start where he finished one and a half lengths behind Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown.

Jonjo O'Neill's charge was raised four pounds after that win at Wincanton but Jack Hogan's three pound claim offsets most of the increase.

Favourite O'Connell goes for a four-timer here. 

Having won the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day by nine and a half lengths (Kelce one length in arrears when falling at the last), connections decided to try their luck down south in a handicap chase at Sandown.

Gavin Sheehan rode one cool race out the back that day, steadily making ground over the last half mile to jump the final fence in fourth and then scoot up the hill to win going away. 

The handicapper has raised the gelding eight pounds for his trouble; without wishing to carp that performance, I noted that five of the eight opponents that day were over nine years of age.

He has shot up 22 pounds since winning at Carlisle on December 1st; Peter Kavangh claims three while Gavin Sheehan rides Passing Well who led three out in the Surrey National at the end of last month but was pipped on the line by Sporting Ace (Major Dundee pulled up).

That looked a hard enough race on heavy ground at Lingfield just three weeks ago; Sporting Ace has gone up five pounds, Passing Well four.

Last year Anglers Crag beat Prince Des Fichaux a neck in this with Major Dundee unseating Tom Bellamy two out when ridden in third. 

Anglers Crag tries again this year off a mark four pounds higher; Brian Ellison's charge was fourth behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh 20 days ago, losing two places after the last. Second spot was claimed by Bodhisattva who goes off the same mark again tomorrow.

Brian Ellison hasn't had a jumps winner for 57 days while John McConnell's yard has struggled this winter.

Prince Des Fichaux races from two pounds out of the handicap this time and hasn't shown a lot since that effort in last year's race (behind Bretney twice - in the Highland National at Perth in April and the Scottish Borders National at Kelso in December). Handler Ewan Whillans has sent out two winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight.

Choosethenews won a point over three miles in 2022 but most of his racing under rules to date has been over trips around the two and a half mile mark. He has been well supported in the market during the day and his run behind Giovinco in February might suggest 126 is a lenient mark.

Having been pulled up behind O'Connell on his penultimate start, last time he finished second behind If Not For Dylan over two miles seven and a half furlongs at this track (Lord Roco a close third, Prince Des Fichaux pulled up). 

Lord Roco has yet to win a race over fences.

Ilikedwayurthinkin likes to race up with the pace and, despite his age, comes into this in good form having won easily at the track over three miles six at the end of November and then finishing second under top weight behind Undeniable Alibi at Ayr last month. 

Owned by J.P. McManus, this one has been supported in the market during the day; Ben Haslam hasn't had a jumps winner for 83 days.

Egbert looks the pick of Alan King's two; writing in the RP Weekender the handler tells readers the bug that hit the yard is easing off now and continues:

"This has been the target for Egbert since he won the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. 

"He's not an easy horse to catch right but he's working well and the further they go the better - he kept grinding away at Haydock, having been off the bridle a long way out, and he'll be suited by this thorough test of stamina. 

"Major Dundee couldn't handle the absolutely bottomless ground at Lingfield in the Surrey National but he didn't give himself a hard race and he's come out of it fine. 

"He was running well when he unseated two out in last year's Eider, holding third place at the time. He would definitely have been placed and he's five pounds lower now."

I've heard Henry Daly, when discussing Bretney, say that the further they go, the better he goes. 

In the past Alistair Jones has called this ten-year-old 'inconsistent' in the RP Weekender and a quick look at his profile might confirm that opinion with blinkers, cheekpieces and a visor tried on various occasions during his career. 

He seems best when able to lead from the front - on his penultimate start he beat Your Own Story 10 lengths in the Scottish National at Kelso. At the time of writing he's 33/1 with William Hill, having been 40s in places earlier in the day which, to my untrained eye, looks big should he turn up on a going day.

Your Own Story's subsequent sixth in the Welsh Grand National behind Val Dancer reads well enough, although Lucinda Russell's charge appeared to lose his pitch mid race before staying on from two out.

Irish raider History Of Fashion has three chase wins to his name and they've all have come at Down Royal and Fairyhouse - both right-handed tracks. 

Two of those wins have come this term for seven pound claimer Harry Sexton, the most recent a Listed race over three mile five and a half furlongs at the beginning of December.

Back in May Gaboriot won a hunter chase at Cheltenham over a distance of four miles and half a furlong while his third behind King Turgeon in the Great Sefton in November certainly catches the eye.

The chestnut was due to run in the Edinburgh National but was declared a non-runner after a poor scope. He comes to this fresher than a few in the field and the yard has sent out a couple of winners in the past week.

Three of Chemical Warfare's six chase wins have come at Newcastle and he has won over an extended three and a quarter mile trip at Sedgefield. 

I was under the impression the Pipe stable used to target this race in the past but perhaps I'm mistaken as Comply Or Die (2008) is their only previous winner. The yard is going through a quiet spell at the moment - just one win from 21 runs in the past fortnight.

Knockanore goes beyond three miles for the first time.

The lowest official handicap ratings of the winner since Merigo won off 125 in 2009 are:

2016: Rocking Blues 126

2017: Mysteree 127

2024: Anglers Crag 126

In a highly competitive affair I've decided to focus on those in the field that have previously shown some form around the four mile mark: Anglers Crag, Gaboriot, Your Own Story, Bodhisattva, Major Dundee, Bretney and Prince Des Fichaux.

Gaboriot is the each-way suggestion, as I write still 12/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair who pay five places.

The 2025 Grand National Trial at Haydock

Everybody agrees - this race isn't a trial for the Grand National in April, so it's time to call it something else.

Ten have been declared to run over the extended three and a half mile trip; the going at the Lancashire track is currently described as good to soft but light rain is forecast throughout the day tomorrow.

Top weight and course specialist Royal Pagaille takes his chance with the result that half of the field race from out of the handicap. 

During the day we have seen Val Dancer and Jubilee Express, first and second in the Welsh Grand National seven weeks ago, supplanted at the head of the market by Yeah Man and Git Maker.

Irish raider Yeah Man won this last year off a mark of 133 (with Famous Bridge unseating at the 17th fence when travelling well enough); Yeah Man goes off 144 tomorrow.

Git Maker races from five pounds out of the handicap off 133. 

Jamie Snowden's charge finished third off that mark in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. On his first start this season he finished last of 12 in a handicap hurdle at Windsor four weeks ago; that looks like a preparatory run for this.

Val Dancer is six pounds 'wrong' at the weights, Jubilee Express eight, although Dylan Johnston's three pound claim reduces the deficit to five.

Royal Pagaille continues to drift in the market as he tries this trip for the first time. 

At the age of 11 it looks a stiff task conceding a minimum of 17 pounds to all opponents but his record at Haydock reads 112111P.  

On his penultimate start in the Betfair Chase in November his jumping wasn't quite as assured as we'd seen in the past and last time he didn't jump well at all before being pulled up. 

With regular pilot Charlie Deutsch riding at Ascot, Sean Bowen has been called upon to do the pushing, the shoving and the steering.     

Famous Bridge is two pounds 'wrong' but likes Haydock - his figures at the track read 11U3. 

Nicky Richards' charge was a tad disappointing when only third behind Egbert and Jacks Parrot in the Tommy Whittle eight weeks ago. Sent off joint favourite with Yeah Man for this last year when rated 139, he unseated Sean Quinlan so remains unproven at the trip; connections try cheekpieces for the first time.   

Where It All Began finds the fences getting in the way on occasions but on his penultimate start he was still in contention in the Welsh National - four lengths fourth - when sprawling on landing four from home.

Three mares take their chance: Apple Away, Galia Des Liteaux and Royal Pagaille's stablemate Fontaine Collonges.

Apple Away has been well backed during the day and is now generally a 6/1 shot. 

She wouldn't be the biggest and I've never been totally convinced by her jumping of a fence - a quick look at her profile might suggest she has shown her best form over fences when racing right-handed.

Galia Des Liteaux and Fontaine Collonges finished behind Val Dancer and Jubilee Express in the Welsh National.

Galia Des Liteaux came home fifth, beaten 17 lengths, while Fontaine Collonges made little impression and was pulled up in the home straight when behind.

Off 142 Dan Skelton's charge went agonisingly close behind My Silver Lining in the 2024 running of the Classic Chase at Warwick, so looks feasibly treated here on 140 with Tristan Durrell claiming three.

Fontaine Collonges likes Haydock too - her figures at the track read 101. 

On her penultimate start she beat Monbeg Genius 12 lengths here and that one won a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter last Saturday.  

It's been a volatile market and there's probably more volatility to come.

I'm drawn to the chance of Galia Des Liteaux who stays the trip and races off her lowest mark since winning the Yorton Stallions  Mares' Novices' Chase at Bangor in November 2022. 

She meets Val Dancer 17 pounds better off than in the Welsh National (if I've done my calculations correctly) and is joint top-rated with Apple Away on Racing Post ratings.

Galia Des Liteaux is the each-way suggestion, currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes who pay three places.     

The 2025 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury

What's this? William Hill sponsoring the Betfair Hurdle? 

It used to be the Tote before that, didn't it? And, before that, Schhh... You Know Who. 

Anyway, the final field of eighteen for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.35) has some notable absentees including Tellherthename, Hansard and Bo Zenith.

The going at Newbury is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with light rain forecast overnight.

Favourite Secret Squirrel won the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle with something to spare on soft ground at Windsor three weeks ago (with Navajo Indy fourth, Beat The Bat seventh, Go Dante eleventh and Givemefive 30 lengths adrift in thirteenth place) and carries a five pounds penalty here.

Nico De Boinville was described as, on occasions, 'agricultural' by Tom Scudamore in a recent Times article appraising the riding styles of the leading contenders for the David Power Jockeys' Cup; Nico was aboard the winner that day at Windsor and he rides Joyeuse for Nicky Henderson and owner J.P. McManus tomorrow.

The Henderson yard has a good record in this race with six previous wins: Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000 and 2004); Landing Light (2001); My Tent Or Yours (2013); and Iberico Lord (2024).

Grey mare Joyeuse goes off a mark of 123; in the past ten years the lowest official handicap rating of the winner was 132 (Violet Dancer in 2015). 

Two mares have come home in front in the past 30 years: Mysilv (1995); and Spirit Leader (2003).

Navajo Indy, fourth at Windsor, won the Gerry Feilden over course and distance at the end of December (Our Champ third) and meets Secret Squirrel five pounds better off for a three length defeat; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

The last horse to carry more than 11-08 to victory was Persian War in 1968 which means I haven't looked too closely at the chances of Lump Sum, Iberico Lord and Favour And Fortune. 

Iberico Lord won this last year off a mark of 134 but things haven't gone to plan over the larger obstacles this season and he finished some 20 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Windsor three weeks ago.

Similarly the last horse older than seven to collect the spoils was Geos some 21 years ago so I haven't spent too much time looking at Aucunrisque, Washington, Go Dante and King William Rufus.

That said, the first-named made all to win the 2023 renewal off 138 and, back in November, won an Ascot handicap on good ground off 129 (Mirabad third and Williethebuilder pulled up). 

He looks feasibly weighted off 133 but will need the rain to stay away.

I certainly wouldn't describe myself as au courant with French Flat form (or British Flat form for that matter) but Mirabad's second in a Listed race at Fointainebleau back in November 2023 over one mile seven furlongs looks respectable - he was headed in the final 50 yards.

And he has done well for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole since moving this side of La Manche. 

Last time at Cheltenham on his second start in a handicap hurdle, the gelding decided he wanted none of the steady early pace set by Magic Seven, pulling his way to the front before the fourth flight and duly winning five and a half lengths. 

The handicapper duly raised him 10 pounds. 

Fiercely Proud brings strong form to the table.

On seasonal debut Ben Pauling's charge had come under pressure when falling two out in an Ascot handicap won by Our Champ. 

He was subsequently sixth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood before pipping Kabral Du Mathan a short head in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas (Our Champ fifth, Favour And Fortune sixth, Go Dante pulled up and Secret Squirrel two lengths third when falling at the final flight).

He has been raised nine pounds for that win to a mark of 137 and probably prefers racing on a right-handed track.

Our Champ's defeat of Break My Soul by a nose at Ascot (Fiercely Proud fell) reads well, particularly as the stable was under a cloud at the time; Freddie Gordon dropped his whip on the run to the line that day but still managed to get the job done.

On Gerry Feilden running Our Champ meets Navajo Indy three pounds better off for a five length defeat which isn't reflected in market prices at the time of writing.

Beat The Bat had Josh The Boss in arrears when second behind Steel Ally over two miles three furlongs at Haydock in November before finishing seven and threequarters lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor. 

Stable form has been a concern this season - odds on chances Anno Power and High Fibre have both been turned over in the past fortnight.

I like Josh The Boss but since 2023 he has been racing over trips around the two and a half mile mark - the step back to two miles may not help the cause.

I've never been convinced by Williethebuilder but Minella Missile, a half brother to Monbeg Genius, went in the notebook after winning a Cheltenham novice hurdle in November 2023. 

At that time handler Evan Williams described him as a staying novice with a turn of foot but he's clearly had problems since; I'm surprised to see him entered up here - he's one for another day maybe.

I had the Harriet Dickin trained Dodger Long pencilled in for this but he never made the five day declarations and I was surprised by the absence of Tellherthename when the final field was announced on Thursday.

Two are on the each-way shortlist: Mirabad and Our Champ.

I've watched a recording of Mirabad's race at Cheltenham again and, to be perfectly honest, I don't quite know what to make it. 

Several of those in behind - Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay - haven't turned up here but the grey Tintintin had previously finished fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood; as the gelding rounded the home turn that day the on-screen speed indicator read 35 mph. 

A fast run two miles will suit his style of racing but this is a step up in class and a current mark of 130 is two pounds below the lowest rated winner of the last ten years.

Plenty of use was made of Our Champ on the front end at Ascot the last day (beaten 27 lengths into fifth behind Fiercely Proud); on Gerry Feilden form he's not too far behind Navajo Indy. 

Our Champ gets the vote.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with the sponsors who pay five places; I've taken 22/1 with Paddy Power who are paying six places. 

The 2025 Scottish Champion Chase

Twelve have been declared for tomorrow's Scottish Champion Chase run at Musselburgh over a trip of two miles four and a half furlongs. 

In a week when several meetings have been abandoned on account of waterlogging, officials at the Scottish track have indicated they have watered to maintain the current going, described as good to soft.

Favourite The Kalooki Kid looked good in a Doncaster novice chase last time but he faces several battle-hardened performers here and is short enough in the market with just two starts over fences to his name. 

The grey Marble Sands won a novice chase over course and distance this time last year and, after two appetisers on the all-weather in the autumn, has shown consistent form over fences this term - third behind Frero Banbou in the Rehearsal at Newcastle and second behind Springwell Bay at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

In the past Saint Segal has been known to jump quite low over his fences; he seems more suited by this trip these days. 

On his penultimate start he appeared to lose his chance at the start, eventually finishing a ten length fifth behind Le Patron at Newbury (Sir Psycho sixth). 

Next time out, again at Newbury, he beat Beau Balko 11 lengths and Walking On Air 34 lengths - the latter-named appeared to have the Great Yorkshire Chase within his grasp when coming to grief at the final fence at Doncaster on Saturday.

Just over 12 months ago Fidelio Vallis beat Corrigeen Rock over course and distance in the Auld Reekie Handicap Chase. 

He hasn't shown the same form on two starts since, with the result Harry Dereham's charge is back on that last winning mark of 140; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time here. 

Stablemates Sir Psycho and Kansas City Star are also in the line-up. 

The former fell on his only chase start for Paul Nicholls but won his first chase start for Dereham - over two miles three furlongs; he has yet to win over further but has been the subject of market support during the day. 

The latter didn't jump well when pulled up behind Terresita at Ascot a fortnight ago.  

This feels like a big weekend for the Dereham yard after Storm Bert washed his gallop away at the end of November; 15 have been declared in total across four cards, including Queens Gamble (Rachael Blackmore up) in the Listed mares' handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday (12.40). 

Minella Drama won the 2023 renewal of the Auld Reekie and proved he's still a force to be reckoned with by making all to beat Hitman, Ahoy Senor, Stage Star and Unexpected Party in the Old Roan at Aintree in the autumn.

Lucinda Russell saddles two, Corrigeen Rock and Traprain Law. 

Corrigeen Rcok won this race last year off 139 and looks feasibly handicapped this time off 142, with Alan Doyle claiming five. 

The gelding doesn't come into the race in the same form though - he didn't jump well behind Boomslang in this year's renewal of the Auld Reekie 31 days ago.

Traprain Law's famous green and yellow silks belong to owner / breeder Raymond Anderson Green. 

On his first try at two and a half miles Traprain Law finished behind Marble Sands at Carlisle at the beginning of November; on revised terms the gelding is entitled to finish upsides Marble Sands provided, of course, he sees out the trip.

The Big Chap comes over from Ireland and on his first run in this country goes off a mark one pound higher than his Irish mark. To date Paul Flynn's charge has not won beyond two miles three.

On his last run for Noel Meade Lieutenant Command finished down the field in the 2023 Galway Plate off 141. 

After a break of of 479 days the 11-year-old was pulled up behind Trelawne on his first run for Tim Reed and then finished second behind Grandads Cottage at odds of 125/1 at Carlisle in December.

All of which leads on to Arizona Cardinal.

Last April Stuart Edmunds' charge won the Topham at Aintree (2m 5f) on soft ground off 137. 

On his first run this term he was pulled up behind Neon Moon in the Native River at Chepstow and promptly underwent wind surgery.

On his next start in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham he finished eighth, beaten just over 16 lengths, outpaced from two out over a trip just short of three miles six furlongs.

Now, he was due to run in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last weekend but was withdrawn on account of the quick ground. 

There was some talk of a Grand National plan but, during the week, after his mare Marsh Wren had been scratched from the National entries, the trainer confirmed that Arizona Cardinal would once again be aimed at the Topham:

"He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham last time. That was a test as to whether he might be worth considering for the Grand National but his stamina gave way and it told us all roads lead back to the Topham."

Arizona Cardinal held two entries for the weekend - this race (for which Ciaran Gethings was jocked up midweek) and the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase over three miles at Sandown. 

I thought connections would opt for Sandown - the horse has won over three miles previously and appreciates soft ground but, not for the first time, I was mistaken.

While drying ground over this shorter trip at Musselburgh wouldn't be ideal, if the plan has been a repeat bid for the Topham since mid December (i.e. after the cross country race), then I'm reasoning he'll need to be reasonably competitive tomorrow. 

The worry would be that, in a race with plenty of early pace, he might struggle to hold a position and become detached.

Layers are offering 20/1 (four places) and I've succumbed to temptation.

Arizona Cardinal is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally at the time of writing, with several layers paying four places.

The 2025 Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase

Seventeen have been declared for tomorrow's renewal of the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3.15 Doncaster) - previously known (for a while, anyway) as the Sky Bet Handicap Chase; the going on the chase track at Donny is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

There have been some big-priced winners of this race in recent years: 

Takingrisks, 40/1 in 2021

Windsor Avenue, 40/1 in 2022

Cooper's Cross, 16/1 in 2023 

Annual Invictus, 16/1 in 2024

Last year Forward Plan just failed to collar front-running Annual Invictus, with Charlie Uberalles third, Erne River fifth and Famous Bridge eventually pulled up following a significant error at the third.

Forward Plan, Charlie Uberalles and Erne River have all shown a liking for this track, as have Docpickedme and Raffle Ticket. 

Young Buster ran well behind Egbert in the three mile novice chase at this meet last year, losing second spot to Snipe after Paddy Brennan dropped his hands on Fergal O'Brien's charge in the shadow of the post. 

It's no surprise to see The Changing Man and Forward Plan at the head of the market. 

The Changing Man has still to win a race over fences in eight starts.

Joe Tizzard's charge ran with credit behind Frero Banbou in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle at the end of November; he was raised five pounds for that effort and another two after finishing second to Victtoriono at Ascot just before Christmas. Should he win here, I don't think anyone would begrudge connections their moment in the sunshine.

Forward Plan raced off 129 when beaten a nose last year with Ben Godfrey claiming three. He goes off 138 tomorrow with Chad Bament claiming ten so, in effect, is on a mark just two pounds higher.

Truth is, I've always held a slight reservation about this horse after this quote from handler Anthony Honeyball [RP Weekender 23-27.11.22]:

"His trouble is that he tends to jump nine out of ten fences like an old pro and then really balls one up."

Still, the horse won the Coral Trophy at Kempton last February (Bowtogreatness third) despite a number of jumping errors... 

Charlie Uberalles beat Docpickedme and Forward Plan over course and distance in December when racing from three pounds out of the handicap; he's effectively four pounds higher tomorrow.

Snipe's second behind Val Dancer at Carlisle last time looks decent form as the winner subsequently added victory in the Welsh Grand National to his list of achievements.

Emma Lavelle has her string in excellent form - 5 wins from 18 runs in the past fortnight (28% strike rate) - and Tightenourbelts comes into this on the back of wins at Exeter (where he beat Beachcomber) and Ludlow. He jumped well at Ludlow but could be vulnerable off a mark of 140.

Frero Banbou proved he stayed the trip by winning the Rehearsal but that looked a hard enough race; he was prominent in a Kempton handicap over Christmas before finishing 10 lengths adrift of Beachcomber.

Famous Bridge had a slog in the Haydock mud last time when just clinging on to third in the Tommy Whittle while Idalko Bihoue's profile appears inconsistent and grey mare Sine Nomine has been contesting hunter chases for the most part.

Bowtogreatness, owned by Harry Redknapp and trainer's wife Sophie Pauling, was impressive when making all to beat Destroytheevidence in a novice chase at Newbury in November but didn't appear to appreciate being pestered up front in the Rehearsal where he was pulled up before two out. Just two pounds higher than his last winning mark, he's unlikely to get his own way up front - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Arizona Cardinal is better with more cut underfoot - the Topham at Aintree is a likely target.

Walking On Air has been out of form so far this term and holds an alternative entry in the 12.40 at Cheltenham. 

Docpickedme hinted at a return to form in a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter before running a stormer behind Charlie Uberalles over course and distance six weeks ago; on revised terms, there's little between the pair.

Young Buster doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and would be entitled to improve on his seasonal debut behind Elvis Mail at Kelso but he has been weak in the market today. 

Ten-year-old Erne River has shown his best form at Doncaster. 

On his penultimate start, sporting first-time blinkers, he raced wide in fourth before appearing a tad unfortunate to lose his footing at the twelfth, giving five pound claimer Tom Broughton no chance. 

The pair were reunited in a hurdle race at the track over Christmas where they finished fourth behind Super Survivor. Fifth in this race last year off 137, beaten just under seven lengths, Erne River goes off 131 tomorrow - and with Tom Broughton's five pound claim he's effectively 11 pounds better off.

Raffle Ticket tries this trip for the first time while most of Sure Touch's form is over a shorter distance.

A very competitive renewal - it's possible to make a case for a number in the field. 

As the tapes go up, there will be the customary dash to secure a prominent early position. 

Of those that have run well at the track previously, Erne River looks well treated but the unseating in first-time blinkers is unsettling. 

Nick Kent's charge had been taken wide on the first circuit that day but the mistake at the twelfth came when he was racing in amongst horses. Next time out in the hurdle race he was settled on the inside rail but in a small field of just six.

Snipe looks one of the more solid options but is priced accordingly so I'll take the chance and hope the blinkers prove more of a help than a hindrance - Erne River is the each-way suggestion, 16/1 with several layers at the time of writing, all of whom pay five places.  

The 2025 BetMGM Holloway's Handicap Hurdle at Ascot

I still can't quite fathom how Collectors Item was allowed to go off at 14/1 for the Somerset National at Wincanton on Thursday; on his previous start Jonjo O'Neill's charge had shown his best form this term when second behind Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown, beaten one and a half lengths at odds of 25/1.

Mr Vango goes in the Peter Marsh at Haydock tomorrow, provided the Lancashire track passes its morning inspection at 8.30 - temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing overnight.

Of the eight declared for the Peter Marsh, in my book Trelawne, Imagine, Richmond Lake and Bill Baxter don't look guaranteed to stay the trip.

The going at Ascot is described as good to soft, good in places.

Fourteen have been declared for the BetMGM Holloway's Handicap Hurdle at 2.50.

Between them Nicky Henderson and Gary & Josh Moore are responsible for three entries apiece, with Nigel Twiston-Davies and Fergal O'Brien each saddling two runners. 

Favourite Bo Zenith moved from Gary & Josh Moore's yard to Nicky Henderson's in October and ran an eye-catching third behind Mirabad at Cheltenham five weeks ago on his first run for 610 days. 

That was the gelding's first run in a handicap and he has been raised three pounds for his trouble; the step up in trip should suit but the 'bounce' factor after such a long layoff would be a concern.

Stablemate Doddiethegreat hasn't been in top form so far this term but a mark of 129 could look lenient after the race.

Altobelli does not look the easiest ride. 

He ran no race whatsoever in the Betfair Hurdle in February. Five weeks ago he went off 13/8 favourite at Doncaster where he looked certain to finish out with the washing before staying on to eventually finish one length adrift of winner Jungle Jack. Connections try first-time cheekpieces.

Aston Martini had Jungle Jack in arrears on her first run in a handicap at Bangor before finding herself outpaced over two miles in the Gerry Feilden next time. The step back up in trip looks a plus; stable jockey Nico De Boinville is aboard Doddiethegreat.

Philip Hobbs & Johnson White have their team in excellent order - 5 wins from 11 runs in past fortnight - but to date Georgi Girl's best form has been seen in mares' races.

Josh The Boss won the Silver Trophy at Chepstow with something up his sleeve but ran a disappointing race behind Steel Ally at Haydock eight weeks ago. After that race connections indicated he'd prefer a faster surface; his chance is respected here with Mr Jamie Neild claiming seven.

I thought Spirit d'Aunou showed his best form for a while in first-time cheekpieces behind Jipcot at Newbury three weeks ago. He won off this mark at Sandown in 2023.

Course and distance winner Goshen is the best horse in the race on official ratings but is difficult to predict while Move It Like Minnie clearly didn't like jumping fences.

Earlier today I watched a recording of Wilful's last race at Taunton - his first run in a handicap. 

The gelding went into the notebook in August after beating Onlyamatteroftime by nine lengths at Worcester while conceding five pounds to the Willie Mullins trained runner. Onlyamtteroftime's rating was 123 at that time - but now he's on 115. 

Jonjo O'Neill's charge led for most of the way at Taunton but was swallowed up by the field approaching the last, eventually finishing eighth of the nine runners, beaten just under seven lengths. A blanket finish in the end and this looks far more competitive.

At the age of ten Stoner's Choice faces a stiff task against younger opponents while Soigneux Bell races from six pounds out of the handicap.

On the shortlist are Kamsinas, Bowenspark, and Spirit d'Aunou.

At Aintree in October Kamsinas beat Bowenspark three and a quarter lengths before finishing a creditable fourth to Steel Ally at Haydock (Josh The Boss ninth, Bowenspark tenth). 

I'd be prepared to forgive both Josh The Boss and Bowenspark their run behind Steel Ally.

Back in November 2023, after Kamsinas had won the Newton Novices' Hurdle at Haydock, handler Fergal O'Brien said of his charge:

"...I thought he was very unlucky at Cheltenham [27.10.23], he got blocked coming down the hill and he ran on very well. What I loved about it was even though he'd had a fair old bang and a rough ride he threw himself over the last. He's got a great will to win. He loves being a racehorse."

Kamsinas looks a solid option but caries his share of weight. 

On that Aintree run Bowenspark is weighted to reverse placings with Kamsinas but this represents his first run on a right-handed track. The booking of David Bass suggests Bowenspark could race more prominently than at Haydock.

I'm going to side with Spirit d'Aunou, back on his last winning mark, with Freddie Mitchell able to claim five pounds - I'm hoping Gary & Josh Moore's charge can build on last month's run at Newbury.

The form of the yard would be a concern although Salver ran a fine race in defeat behind Nemean Lion at Windsor earlier today.

Spirit d'Aunou is the each-way suggestion, 18/1 with layers generally, most of whom are paying four places. 

Cold comfort

As a belated Father's Day present, a few weeks ago I was given tickets to tomorrow's Classic Chase meeting at Warwick; unfortunately that particular avenue of enjoyment has been scuppered by the cold weather -  along with the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle Day meeting at Kempton and the William Hill Medieval Raceday at Wetherby.

The feature from the Wetherby card, the Towton Novices' Chase, has been expeditiously transferred to the replacement meeting at Ffos Las which still has to pass an inspection tomorrow morning. 

The Met Office reports overnight temperatures at the Welsh track will remain above freezing while an update on Turftrax indicates the course was 'raceable' at 11.30 this morning.

Nonetheless, such is my disappointment at the abandonment of the Warwick fixture, I can barely summon the strength required to open a form book, never mind identify an each-way wager that makes any appeal.

Rosscahill and One Big Bang dominate the market for the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle (2.58). 

The former looked beaten after the last last time but stayed on powerfully to deny Ben Solo and tries this new trip on his first run in a handicap; the latter, second behind Shoot First at Haydock on his penultimate start, looked held on 127 at Cheltenham - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Soft ground at Ffos Las saps like nowhere else - Rosscahill, Mahland, Up For Parol, Stolen Silver, Balkardy, and Classic Concorde have all previously won at the track.

Mel Rowley's team are in good form but the price about Mahland has disappeared.

Stolen Silver, rated 154 over fences, goes off 141 and held five day entries for the Lanzarote and the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This looks less competitive but the Sam Thomas trained grey jumped the Aintree hurdles as though they were fences nine weeks ago.

Up For Parol held the same five day entries as Stolen Silver, with the Lanzarote the probable target, Jamie Snowden's charge having finished sixth, third and thirteenth in the last three renewals of the Kempton showpiece.

On seasonal debut Up For Parol came home second, 18 lengths behind runaway winner Henri The Second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Sandown five weeks ago, with West To The Bridge a further 11 lengths adrift in fourth.

Classic Concorde finished ninth behind Val Dancer in the Welsh National last time but is rated six pounds higher over hurdles.

Madaket is reported to have schooled well over fences; Micheal Nolan reported the gelding 'stopped quickly' in a Chepstow handicap hurdle 15 days ago. 

Alan De Banks and Balkardy both race from out of the handicap. 

The former makes his handicap debut for a yard that hasn't sent out a winner for 61 days while the latter has struggled over the larger obstacles. Handler Evan Williams recently said of his charge [RP Weekender Straight from the Stable 26-30.12.24]:

"He's not very big and fences get in his way sometimes, but he's very genuine. He's a joy to have around the place and I hope he can carry on giving a good account of himself."

When I learnt of the replacement activity organised as a substitute for my Father's Day trip to the Warwick races, any enthusiasm I might have mustered for a Ffos Las fancy sapped straight out of my shoes - a walk around Kenilworth's Castle & Abbey Trail.

I'll keep my powder dry for another day. 

The first Sandown selection of 2025...

At Cheltenham on Wednesday that Lounge Lizard jumped the fences as though he'd spent the previous night on someone else's  sofa.

Bit of a disappointment - and not the start to the new year I was hoping for.

And I'm struggling to find an each-way wager that makes much appeal on tomorrow's Unibet Veterans' Chaseday card at Sandown.

The going at the Esher track is described at soft, good to soft in places, with overnight temperatures forecast to go down to -1; an inspection will take place at 7.30 am.

Eight have been declared for the Read Nicky Henderson's Weekly Unibet Blog (1.50) with Etalon, Hunter Legend and Roccovango vying for favouritism.

Back in the autumn in a stable tour article handler Dan Skelton said the following about Etalon:

"The plan is to go for the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. I think the track at Exeter will be perfect for him. I can not tell you why he ran the way he did at Aintree [seventh of ten behind Found A Fifty in the Maghull Novices' Chase] as the rest of the season had been seamless.

"If you win a Haldon Gold Cup you would be tempted to give the Tingle Creek a go as Jonbon is likely to scare off most horses.

"It is either that or you leave him and go for the Desert Orchid at Kempton, which is a limited handicap, and that might suit him well, but we will cross that bridge after Exeter." 

In the event Etalon raced in second for much of the trip at Exeter but when the taps were turned on in the home straight, he made a slight error four out and then a more substantial one three from home that effectively put paid to his chance; he finished last of the five runners, 29 lengths behind winner JPR One.

Since then he has finished last of nine behind General Medrano in the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy at Newbury before staying on under a hold-up ride to finish fifth behind Libberty Hunter at Cheltenham three weeks ago (Triple Trade fourth).

Clearly he comes into this with a question or two to answer but back in February the gelding beat Gunsight Ridge nine lengths over two miles at the track. This represents his first try over fences at the trip and, in these calmer waters, has to have every chance on his best form.

Dan Skelton also saddles top weight Unexpected Party who was perhaps a tad fortunate to beat Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual at the Festival in March. 

With brother Harry's enthusiasm to establish a lead in the David Power Jockeys' Cup standings - £500,000 to the jockey who rides the most winners covered by ITV racing during the season - being widely reported in the media, Etalon appears to be the stable's main hope.

To date no such lofty ambitions have been expressed by connections of Hunter Legend who won the Silver Fox at Leicester seven days ago; Venetia Williams' charge races from one pound out of the handicap here but Ned Fox claims three.

Aged nine, Roccovango only has three chase starts to his name but Olly Murphy's charge can boast two wins and a second - beaten a nose by Guard Your Dreams at Warwick in October where his tendency to jump right probably proved his undoing. 

That habit shouldn't be a cause for too much concern at Sandown and the handler will presumably have a line on this one's chance with Etalon through stable companion Gunsight Ridge.

Jupiter Du Gite likes to race from the front.

Back in April he was beaten 49 lengths by Carbon King at Uttoxeter but it would be unwise to take that form at face value. 

Four weeks ago Gary and Josh Moore's charge tried three miles for the first time here and was far too keen for his own good out in front, eventually passed by Holy Joe Smoke and Passing Well after the last on the run up the hill.

Back in January last year Joe Tizzard said of Triple Trade [RP Weekender 17-21.01.24]:

"He's had a hell of  season, winning twice and also being placed twice. He was a cheap horse, so it's great for his owners. He's on the upgrade and in a big way. He'll go to Lingfield for a race on Sunday and won there as a novice hurdler. Hopefully that goes well before we have some more fun with him in the spring."

Triple Trade finished fifth of six runners at Lingfield that day off a mark of 138 - and hasn't won since. As a result, on 127 tomorrow, he looks feasibly handicapped, having won off 135 at Ascot just over 12 months ago. Last time out he was six lengths clear of Etalon behind Libberty Hunter at Cheltenham.

In a trappy looking affair the two outsiders, Hubrisko and Carbon King, have been under consideration. 

Carbon King went into the notebook when beating Fine Casting at Ffos Las in December 2023. Evan Williams subsequently said in a Straight from the Stable article [RP Weekender 28.02-03.03.24]:

"He ran a very good race first time out for us [eighth behind Nemean Lion at Ffos Las] and it was nice to win with him at Ffos Las. He was 25/1 and we didn't really fancy him but he handled the ground exceptionally well. We've run him up in grade the last twice, which was tilting at windmills a bit, but he'll be fine back in calmer waters. I'd like to stay chasing with him and Ffos Las plays to his strengths - he handles the ground there, which a lot of horses don't."

He fell at the last when beaten behind Jupiter Du Gite at Uttoxeter in March before beating Fine Casting (a second time) at the same track in April.

After two runs over hurdles this season, he finished fifth on his first chase start of the term, just under 14 lengths behind Kotmask at Ascot.

Hubrisko has his second run for Harry Dereham whose gallop was left 'unfit for purpose' by Storm Bert at the end of November. 

On his last run for Willie Mullins in August 2023 Hubrisko made all to win a beginners' chase at Killarney. 

In five chase starts to date, he has been placed in four and was kicked at the start when finishing ninth at Galway (August 2023); after the race the vet reported the gelding had a haematoma on his his right fore elbow and abrasions to his right fore cannon, so that run is easily forgiven.

On his first run for new connections he was always behind in a hurdle race at Newbury. 

He goes off 134 here, a mark three pounds lower than he won from over in Ireland. The yard appears to have recovered from the setback caused by Storm Bert, recording 3 wins from 8 runs (38% strike-rate) in the past fortnight.

In a Stable Tour piece, the handler commented:

"He has some useful bits of form on his record..." 

Carbon King has been backed down from 28/1 earlier today and is now 14/1 with most layers; as his very best form has come on heavy ground, I would have preferred to have seen further rain.

I'd envisage Hubrisko will race prominently with, amongst others, Jupiter Du Gite. 

I'll close my eyes, say my prayers and take a small each-way interest in Hubrisko at around 16/1 tomorrow morning, provided, of course, the track passes its 7.30 am inspection...  

A chance at Cheltenham on New Year's Day (2025)

Cheltenham must survive a 7.30am inspection tomorrow as a yellow weather warning for wind is currently in place. 

The going for the New Year's Day card is currently described as good to soft, with heavy rain forecast in the morning. 

Nine have been declared for the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (2.05) run over two miles four and a half furlongs on the New Course.

Gemirande, Springwell Bay and Colonel Harry are at the head of the market. 

18 days ago Gemirande won the December Gold Cup over course and distance and appeared to have something up his sleeve; Venetia Williams' charge has been raised eight pounds. 

Springwell Bay had no answer to Jango Baie over course and distance last time but Jonjo O'Neill's charge, beaten six and a half lengths that day, was conceding eight pounds.

Colonel Harry didn't appear to stay when well beaten behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. 

Prior to that, on seasonal debut, Jamie Snowden's charge was beaten just under four lengths in the Listed Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle. Taking into account Nick Slatter's three pound claim aboard Marble Sands, the pair meet on similar terms again. 

Marble Sands hasn't always looked the easiest of rides and probably won't appreciate further rain.

Midnight River, having finished third in the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup, won what looked a more competitive renewal of this race last year off 145. 

Dan Skelton's inmate has won over a trip of three miles plus and has been talked of as a potential Grand National horse but the gelding has been out of form so far this season; last time, like Colonel Harry, he was well beaten behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup.

On his penultimate start Irish raider Lisnamult Lad sprang a 20/1 shock over a trip of two miles four on the Old Course, making all to beat Weveallbeencaught half a length; last time he fell in the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan when in the lead.

On his blog trainer Paul Nicholls has said the following about top weight Hitman:

"He is difficult to place because he is handicapped to the hilt but he ran another fine race when a close second to Minella Drama in the Old Roan at Aintree late in October. He then suffered a nasty bout of colic on the way home and spent the next fortnight at our vets. So we lost the best part of a month with Hitman before he was able to start regular exercise again.

"He has done plenty of work since that setback and seems in fine form now but it's possible he might just need the run under top weight in this Premier Handicap at a track where he has performed with credit in the past."

What a wonderful horse Seddon is!

John McConnell's charge beat Fugitif two lengths in the 2023 Magners Plate over course and distance and this autumn won a Qualified Riders race at Listowel at the age of 11 - his current Irish Flat rating is 88. 

As his handler said in a Straight from the Stable article a year ago [RP Weekender 27-31.12.23]:

"He's very straightforward and he doesn't owe us anything."

This time last year Henry Daly sent out Rapper to win a three and a quarter mile chase at this meet by 10 lengths. 

Now, not for one moment would I suggest Mr Daly is going to repeat the trick with Lounge Lizard but the gelding's second behind Ga Law over course and distance at the Trials Day last January reads well (Il Ridoto third, Victtorino and Hitman behind).  

The yard boasts a 31% strike-rate over the past fortnight (four wins from 13 runners); the 12/1 available when I started to write this post has completely disappeared.

8/1 with most layers now, Lounge Lizard is the each-way suggestion for New Year's Day.

With best wishes to all readers for a very happy new year. 

The 2024 Welsh Grand National

Season's greetings. 

Sixteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.

Market leader Monbeg Genius has three chase wins to his name - and two of those have come at Chepstow. 

He was beaten 12 lengths by the mare Fontaine Collonges at Haydock three weeks ago and meets that rival five pounds better off, allowing for the three pound claim Ned Fox makes on Venetia Williams' charge.

His third behind Corach Rambler off 140 in the 2023 Ultima reads very well but a mark of 144 here looks stiff. 

Stable jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr rides stablemate Iron Bridge who will be expected to come on for his seasonal debut when third behind Val Dancer at Carlisle (Your Own Story pulled up); the yard recorded a quick-fire double with Red Dirt Road and Fortunate Man at Aintree earlier today. 

Iron Bridge finished a remote second off 142 behind Nassalam last year so looks feasibly treated on 136; Mel Rowley's charge has been raised five pounds for that Carlisle victory.  

It's worth noting that in the past 20 years only five winners have managed to carry more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03, 2006); Synchronised (11-06, 2010); Native River (11-12, 2016); Elegant Escape (11-08, 2018); and Nassalam (11-03, 2023).

The mare Galia Des Liteaux was beaten threequarters of a length in the Classic Chase at Warwick last year before finishing eighth in the Aintree Grand National; trainer Dan Skelton indicated in a pre-season briefing that this race has been the target.

Sam Thomas saddles two, both making their seasonal debut - 2021 winner Iwilldoit and the seven-year-old Jubilee Express. The latter is much shorter in the market but has just four chase starts to his name.

Gordon Elliott saddles Where It All Began and Stuzzikini.

The former won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February before finishing fourth in the Kim Muir and then eighth in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse where he didn't jump particularly well. 

The market suggests this one, wearing first-time blinkers, is the pick of the pair.

After pulling up behind Bangers And Cash in a handicap chase at Exeter in November 2022, The Newest One was campaigned solely over hurdles until winning an amateur riders' chase at Cheltenham in October (Amateur and Atlanta Brave both pulled up). 

His fifth behind Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon at Cheltenham last time looks respectable and Twiston-Davies' charge won a novice hurdle by 19 lengths at this track last December. 

Evies Vladimir wouldn't be the safest of conveyances while Classic Concorde has a high hurdle rating but hasn't run in a chase since June 2023. 

Campaigned mostly on right-handed tracks, No Hubs No Hoobs won the Devon Stayers Handicap Chase at Exeter in April and finished 22 lengths behind Remastered on seasonal debut at Wincanton nine weeks ago. 

I tipped Amateur each-way at 66/1 for this last year; racing from the front and jumping slightly right, he went well for a long way but had nothing more to give and was pulled up before the first in the home straight. He has been pulled up on all three starts this season. 

Two each-way chances are on the radar.

Currently a 12/1 shot, Val Dancer has been backed in the run up to the race. After the win at Carlisle last time, trainer Mel Rowley said:

"Val Dancer did quite well last season and has really strengthened up and grown over the summer. He really wants cut in the ground and he could be a type for races like the Midlands Grand National."

Atlanta Brave's threequarters of a length second to Surrey Quest off a mark of 121 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase last December reads well (winner was subsequently beaten a nose by Macdermott in the Scottish Grand National). 

Kerry Lee's charge has yet to win a race over the larger obstacles but was highlighted by Keith Melrose, Racing Post betting editor, as a horse to follow this season (The Big Jump Off, Racing Post Monday 21st October).

Just four days later the gelding was pulled up three out at Cheltenham; next time he was fourth of five, beaten five lengths by Roccovango at Uttoxeter.

The yard was slow into its stride this term but has recorded two wins from nine runs in the past fortnight (22% win strike-rate).

There's a hint this may be a year too soon but the fact Kerry Lee's inmate won a maiden hurdle at this track in January 2023 is a positive and I note connections have opted to fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Generally a 14/1 shot, Ladbrokes and Coral stand out offering 18/1 at the time of writing. 

Atlanta Brave is the each-way suggestion, with both Ladbrokes and Coral paying five places.  

Retail frustrations at Christmas and the 2024 Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot

I begin this yuletide post with a slight digression on customer service - an occasional hobby horse of mine. 

I think we'd all agree good customer service should be lauded.

Six years ago, at precisely this time of year, I was only too happy to record Marks and Spencer's outstanding customer service in a post entitled 'A gift horse at Christmas'. 

Similarly, poor customer service needs to be called out as well.  

I'm afraid, six years on, standards at the once outstanding Marks and Spencer appear to have slipped.

A couple of months back I signed up for a Sparks card and, as instructed, downloaded the M&S app. The main motivation was to receive a free hot drink after six hot drink purchases - a modest enough goal, I think you'll agree, but, these days, that's about all I have the stomach for.

Anyway, it wasn't clear to me how the app was supposedly recording my coffee purchases so last week I asked a helpful member of store staff to explain. She showed me the app on her phone; a digital card popped up showing each purchase on her device, a feature that clearly wasn't working on my mine. A call to the helpline was required.

Two assistants - one customer, the other technical - quickly offered the same diagnosis and both were rather adamant: I didn't have the requisite digital profile and the simple answer was I needed to go away (as soon as) and create one. Having registered months earlier, I knew this couldn't be the case but my humble protestations were given short shrift.

Such larks with Marks! Chasing a free coffee felt like harder work than chasing a free bet.

Anyway, Plan B kicked in - details of the sorry saga were sent in a separate mail to somebody else and a prompt reply followed, the start of which is reproduced below:

"Thank you for contacting us at M&S.

"I'm sorry you had to go through this process, as a shopper my self [sic] I understand how frustrating you are."

Naturally, when I showed this response to my wife, she could only concur. 

Still, I was surprised to hear that rumours of my retail notoriety had reached the lower echelons of Marks and Spencer's nationwide support team... 

Retail therapy like that - it's enough to drive anyone to the formbook.

13 have been declared for the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3.35), the finale at Ascot tomorrow where a crowd of over 19,000 is anticipated; I have no doubt certain patrons amongst that number will have successfully claimed at least one free hot drink from Marks and Spencer.

The going is described as good to soft.

Five weeks ago Be Aware and the mare Dysart Enos finished second and third respectively behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood at Cheltenham (Fiercely Proud sixth, Go Dante ninth); on revised terms the pair look closely matched.

Unbeaten four-year-old Kabral Du Mathan had the Boodles at Cheltenham as a target last March after winning the Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle at Huntingdon but he never got there after suffering a setback. 

Paul Nicholls' inmate has been well backed through the day; this represents the gelding's first race with more than eight runners.

Three four-year-olds have come home in front in the past 20 years: Cause Of Causes (2012); Sternrubin (dead-heated with Jolly's Cracked It in 2015); and Tritonic (2021). 

Flashy chestnut Secret Squirrel, trained by Hughie Morrison and owned and bred by his wife Mary, finished third behind Our Champ over course and distance seven weeks ago (Fiercely Proud fell two out when disputing second) and is six pounds better off here; the trainer won this with Marble Arch in 2001 and Not So Sleepy in 2019 and 2020. 

The market currently rates Secret Squirrel a 6/1 chance while Our Champ is 20/1 in a place - having been 40s earlier in the week.

Favour And Fortune was sixth in the Supreme in March before winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April. Writing in the RP Weekender, Alan King says:

"He's come to hand quicker than I expected after his hock injury and he might have returned to action at Doncaster last weekend. 

"I decided that he would benefit from waiting a week and I was delighted with how he worked on the grass last Saturday.

"While I'm sure there will be improvement in him, as he's not run since last April, I believe that he's ready to run well."

The yard won this with Raya Star in 2011 and Tritonic 2021.

Top weight Steel Ally jumped well to make all and win at Haydock over two miles three furlongs off a career-high mark last time. Sam Thomas' charge has gone up another six pounds for that effort; it was testing at Haydock so better ground here should help but I'm not certain the step back in trip will.

Fiercely Proud is better going right-handed so his sixth under a hold-up ride in the Greatwood is easily forgiven. However he finished behind Be Aware, Steel Ally and Secret Squirrel in the Novices' Championship Final won by Helnwein at Sandown in the spring.

Rated 77 on the Flat in Ireland, front-runner Impero beat decent yardsticks Norman Fletcher, Aucunrisque and Jilaijone in a conditional jockeys' handicap at Cheltenham in October off 119 and has since won a Musselburgh novice hurdle over two and a half miles; the yard hasn't recorded a win so far this month.

Black Hawk Eagle proved no match for Norman Fletcher at Huntingdon last time while 2021 winner Tritonic finished last of 11 runners on the all-weather at Kempton 10 days ago and is clearly considered the stable's second string.

Kihavah, rated 101 on the Flat, is at his best on good ground and was declared a non-runner late this afternoon. 

Go Dante's nose defeat of Faivoir in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last March reads well. Olly Murphy's charge still has the look of one with something in hand of his current mark (132) but things don't appear to have gone to plan this term. 

He finished fifth behind Lump Sum in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las (weakened gradually from two out) and underwent wind surgery the very next day. Next time in the Greatwood he faded out of contention approaching the last and was beaten 19 lengths.

In a Straight from the Stable article just over a year ago [RP Weekender 01-05.11.23] Olly Murphy said:

"He wants very soft ground..."

When this race was priced up earlier in the week, I thought two horses looked overpriced - Our Champ and Go Dante's stablemate Alnilam, who never made the final declarations, presumably on account of the ground.

Our Champ beat Break My Soul a nose in the Lavazza Handicap here, despite conditional jockey Freddie Gordon dropping his whip in the final 110 yards. On revised terms the gelding has roughly two and a half lengths to find with Secret Squirrel and has been supported in the market through the day.

Hughie Morrison has said he thinks Secret Squirrel is well handicapped whereas Chris Gordon is on record saying the handicapper has probably 'got' his charge now.  

The Gordon yard has been slow to come to hand this season but King William Rufus won a handicap hurdle six lengths at the track earlier this afternoon.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 16/1 in a couple of places but at the time of writing 20/1 with bet365 who pay four places. 

Anyone fancy a coffee?