The Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle at Haydock

I'm usually in hibernation mode at this time of year but I've just seen Sam Twiston-Davies on TV - in a suit - posing with winning connections after East India Dock won the Chester Cup earlier today; and the opener on tomorrow's mixed card at Haydock, the Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (1.00), has somehow delayed my rostered summer slumbers...

In last year's renewal Zain Nights (125) beat My Bobby Dazzler (121) a head with Harbour Lake (129) three and a quarter lengths adrift in third.

The trio do battle once again, having contested the Safran Landing Systems Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham 24 days ago. 

On that occasion Long Draw (128) beat Harbour Lake (137) two lengths with My Bobby Dazzler (119) over 12 lengths further behind in fourth and Zain Nights (132) another eight lengths adrift in fifth.

Adjusted ratings for those runners in tomorrow's renewal are:

Long Draw (134) +6

Harbour Lake (140) +3

My Bobby Dazzler (117) -2

Zain Nights (132) -

Winner Long Draw hit a couple of flat spots in that race at Cheltenham - at one point his chance looked to have gone completely - but he stayed on stoutly up the hill to claim the spoils; I can't help but feel a repeat of that performance on this flat track is likely to prove problematic.

Topgun Simmy won a three mile handicap hurdle at Down Royal off 129 on Monday - Paddy Hanlon claiming seven. He goes off 136 but will need to be a hardy sort to show his best in this better race; to date most of his form has been on right-handed tracks.

Tiny Tetley (132) bids to complete a four-timer, having started the sequence off on a mark of 114 at Exeter in March. This one beat Thank You Ma'am over course and distance three weeks ago; all his wins have come in races with less than nine runners.

This time last year Lihyan beat Porter In The Park at Market Rasen. 

Lihyan stays this trip but stable form is a concern while handler Emma Lavelle said of Porter In The Park [RP Weekender 29.01-02.02.25]:

"She's as hard as nails but not overly big and and is much better running in a better race with less weight. I'm not sure she genuinely stays 3m and her ideal trip is probably a good gallop over 2m 6f."    

Rated 80 on the Flat, Mostly Sunny appears well handicapped on 117 but he ran twice in the final week of the jumps season as trainer Dan Skelton valiantly tried to retain his dwindling lead in the jump trainers' title. Prior to that he was well beaten by Porter In The Park at Ludlow; he tries a trip beyond 2m 5f for the first time.  

Escapologist finished behind Mostly Sunny at Plumpton and tries a trip beyond an extended two and a half miles for the first time.

On the one occasion Patriotik raced on good ground, Evan Williams' charge finished well beaten behind Altobelli over a shorter trip at Ascot. On his penultimate start he showed a liking for drying ground, beating Kamsinas off 121 at Doncaster, and has been raised two pounds for his third behind Red Risk at Uttoxeter last time; in addition Isabel Williams no longer claims three so he's effectively five pounds higher here.  

Ki Woo (121) looks unexposed on his first run in a handicap. Beaten by Mailcash over a shorter trip in a maiden hurdle at Carlisle in February, he reversed the form with Donald McCain's charge over 2m 7f at Bangor four weeks ago.

On the longlist: Harbour Lake, Patriotik, Zain Nights, Ki Woo and My Bobby Dazzler.

The handicapper hasn't done Harbour Lake any favours, raising Alan King's charge to a career high of 140 after the Cheltenham run. 

Last year's winner Zain Nights remains on a career high mark; Lucy Wadham said of her charge [RP Weekender 19-23.03.25]:

"... I think he might just be a spring horse. He hasn't quite fired this season but he's been training really well. He ran in the Pertemps last week but didn't go a tap (pulled up behind Doddiethegreat at the Cheltenham Festival). Like so many he didn't get a very good start at Cheltenham and never got into the race. That can happen there. He's entered at Newbury on Friday and I think he'll run. He might find himself with a visor on."

The visor did the trick at Newbury where he beat Welcom To Cartries four and a quarter lengths. He ran better at Cheltenham behind Long Draw, leading after two out before weakening on the run-in.

I'm not certain Patriotik will show his best on good ground while Ki Woo isn't easy to assess. 

At ten years of age My Bobby Dazzler is certainly the veteran in the field but he ran well on his first run after wind surgery at Cheltenham and is now on a mark four pounds lower than last year when beaten a head by Zain Nights.

At the time of writing Zain Nights is generally a 9/1 shot while My Bobby Dazzler is 14/1; however bet365 stand out offering 20/1 about the latter.

My Bobby Dazzler is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 with bet365 paying four places. 

Whatever happens, come 1.15 I'm definitely going to engage hibernation mode. Honest.

A brief review of the 2024/25 jumps season

Champion jockey: Sean Bowen

Champion trainer: Willie Mullins

Winning owner: J P McManus

Champion conditional jockey: Freddie Gingell

Dan Skelton went into Aintree's Grand National meeting at the beginning of April with a commanding lead in the jumps trainers' championship - some £790,000 ahead of Paul Nicholls, £854,000 ahead of Nicky Henderson and over £1.3m clear of Willie Mullins in fourth place.

On the first day of the meeting Mr Mullins sent out the winners of the first four races on the card - all Grade 1 events: Impaire Et Passe (9/4), Manifesto Novices' Chase; Murcia (11/4), Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle; Gaelic Warrior (11/4), Aintree Bowl; and Lossiemouth (5/4f), Aintree Hurdle.

Incredibly, on Saturday he then sent out the first three home in the Grand National - Nick Rockett (33/1), I Am Maximus (7/1), and Grangeclare West (33/1) - and, for good measure, claimed fifth with Meetingofthewaters (20/1) and seventh with Minella Cocooner (18/1).

Skelton, pipped by Mullins for the title last year, must have been consumed by a sense of déjà vu. Somehow there just seemed an air of inevitability about it all. 

A week later Captain Cody (9/1) and Klarc Kent (14/1) filled the first two places in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr and by the time Sandown's final fixture came around, Mullins was priced up a 1/12 chance to collect his second British trainers' championship.

Gaelic Warrior (5/6f), Il Etait Temps (9/2) and Jump Allen (5/1) obliged for the Irish maestro but the Olly Murphy trained Resplendent Grey - champion jockey Sean Bowen up - struck a note of defiance for the home team, denying Lombron and Rachael Blackmore in the feature bet365 Gold Cup.

The final totals showed that Willie Mullins had won just shy of £200,000 more than Dan Skelton over the course of the season.

Once again Willie Mullins was crowned leading trainer at the Cheltenham Festival with ten winners.

Four of those winners came on the final day, including 100/1 shot Poniros in the Triumph Hurdle, but in the Gold Cup 8/13f Galopin Des Champs wasn't as slick at the fences as we've seen in the past and he was comprehensively beaten by Inothewayurthinkin, vindicating the decision of winning connections to supplement at a cost of £25,000.

The Champion Hurdle on Tuesday proved one of the most dramatic in recent memory with 1/2f Constitution Hill falling four from home. State Man (8/1), five lengths clear approaching the last and with the race at his mercy, clipped the top of the flight and came to grief, allowing the mare Golden Ace to claim the spoils and her trainer Jeremy Scott the adulation of the massed ranks of mellifluous supporters who had installed themselves on the terracing behind the winner's enclosure.

On Wednesday a bad mistake by Jonbon in the Champion Chase effectively put paid to his chance; in the circumstances he did well to finish second but Marine Nationale's deserved victory was an emotional affair. 

The horse had won the 2023 renewal of the Supreme with Michael O'Sullivan in the plate; on 6th February 2025 Michael was severely injured when falling from Wee Charlie at the final fence in a handicap chase at Thurles and he died from the injuries sustained ten days later.

On Thursday Fact To File produced an eye-catching performance in the Ryanair while Bob Olinger denied favourite Teahupoo in the Stayers' Hurdle.

The first three days of this year's Festival were plagued by false starts and attendances over the four days were down by more than 10,000 compared to 2024 - plenty to ponder on for Cheltenham's new chief executive Guy Lavender.

Back in the autumn Minella Drama won the Old Roan, The Real Whacker the Charlie Hall, and King Turgeon the Grand Sefton, the last-named on the same day the 2022 Grand Sefton winner, Al Dancer, rolled back the years to come home ten lengths clear in the 63rd renewal of Wincanton's Badger Beer Handicap Chase. 

At the Cheltenham Open meeting Freddie Gingell rode Il Ridoto to victory in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the following day Harry Cobden made all to pick up the Greatwood for James Owen and the Gredley family.

Haydock specialist Royal Pagaille saw off Grey Dawning and Bravemansgame in the Betfair Chase while a week later Kandoo Kid claimed the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. 

On the same day the precocious Sir Gino won the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and subsequently, on his first start over fences, beat Ballyburn in the Wayward Lad at Kempton before picking up an injury that ruled him out for the rest of the season.

Having won the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham, Jonbon added the Tingle Creek at Sandown and the Clarence House at Ascot before that mistake in the Champion Chase. 

Nicky Henderson's charge then went on to claim a second consecutive victory in the Melling Chase at Aintree but, returning to Sandown on the final day of the season, had no answer to the turn of foot shown by Il Etait Temps in the Celebration Chase.

Mr Vango had quite the exceptional season. 

Sara Bradstock's charge won the London National at Sandown, the Peter Marsh at Haydock and then the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. Unfortunately, when the weights for the Aintree Grand National were framed in February, his rating of 143 wasn't high enough to ensure a place in the final field of 34 runners. Now rated 152, Mr Vango will be aimed at the 2026 Aintree spectacular.

Just before Christmas Crambo won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot for a second time while at Kempton on Boxing Day Constitution Hill beat Lossiemouth in the Christmas Hurdle, Banbridge ran down the front-running Il Est Francais in the King George, and The Jukebox Man, owned by Harry Redknapp, won the Kauto Star comfortably. 

Unfortunately Harry's pride and joy picked up an injury and missed his intended engagement at Cheltenham - the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase - but connections are already talking about the 2026 Gold Cup for their charge, for which he is generally quoted at 25/1 chance.

The Mel Rowley trained Val Dancer emerged from the Chepstow fog in the lead in the Welsh Grand National but, despite subsequently finishing third behind Famous Bridge in Haydock's Grand National Trial, was another runner to miss the cut for the Aintree showpiece.

L'Homme Presse, third behind Banbridge in the King George, looked good winning the Cotswold Chase at the end of January but next time out was run off his feet behind Pic D'Orhy in the Ascot Chase over two miles five furlongs.

At that same Ascot meeting The Changing Man, having finished second in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, the Howden Silver Cup at Ascot, and the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster, strolled home in the Reynoldstown after favourite Jingko Blue fell at the third. 

The owners of Jingko Blue had better luck with Jango Baie; although their horse was beaten a short-head by Handstands in the Scilly Isles at Sandown, he went on to win the Arkle at Cheltenham.

Grey mare Joyeuse won Newbury's competitive William Hill Hurdle eight lengths but couldn't live with Lossiemouth in the Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham.

A fortnight later Knockanore won the Eider at Newcastle 16 lengths but couldn't build on that while Moroder bounced back to form, winning the Grimthorpe at Doncaster at the beginning of March at odds of 33/1.

And on the Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival Go Dante won a second Imperial Cup for Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy in what proved a breakthrough season for both jockey and trainer. 

Sean Bowen rode 180 winners to claim the jockeys' title, 38 more than nearest rival Harry Cobden while Olly Murphy sent out 141 winners, posting a 25% win strike-rate over the course of the season.

Finally Harry Skelton was crowned the inaugural winner of the David Power Jockeys' Cup. 

Jockeys gained points for finishing in the top four places of races televised by ITV Racing between 15th November 2024 and 4th April 2025; with 420 points, Harry Skelton finished 90 points clear of nearest rival Harry Cobden. 

Harry (Skelton) collected a cool £500,000 for his efforts, with principal trainer (and brother) Dan receiving £50,000, and a further £50,000 being shared among stable staff. 

The 2025 bet365 Gold Cup

On Monday 10th March Dan Skelton was priced up 1/6 to collect his first British trainers' title; six and a half weeks later, Willie Mullins is priced up 1/12 to collect his second British trainers' title.

Dan Skelton leads Willie Mullins by £68,483 this evening but tomorrow's card at Sandown will be pivotal.

The bet365 Gold Cup, due off at 4.10, is worth £98,473 to the winner and Willie Mullins is responsible for ten of the 20 runners. 

His Grangeclare West, third behind stablemates Nick Rockett and I Am Maximus in the Grand National three weeks ago (Minella Cocooner seventh, Threeunderthrufive and Monbeg Genius pulled up), carries top weight on a mark of 168, thereby ensuring 11 in the field run from out of the handicap - including stablemates O'Moore Park, Spanish Harlem, Chosen Witness and Klarc Kent. 

Skelton's sole entry, Hoe Joly Smoke, is 13 pounds 'wrong'.

Paul Townend, third on the Mullins trained Quai De Bourbon in the Irish National at Fairyhouse on Monday, rides favourite High Class Hero here. This one won a three mile point at Loughbrickland in November 2021 but has yet to win over that distance or beyond under rules.

Dancing City was well beaten in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham in March and then parted company with Townend in the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree; back in May last year he finished half a length ahead of High Class Hero in the Grade 1 Channor Real Estate Group Novices' Hurdle at Punchestown.

Danny Mullins and Minella Cocooner were victorious in this race last year (Threeunderthrufive weakening from three out to finish thirteenth) and the partnership try to repeat the trick this year off 155, a mark just four pounds higher.

Four of the Mullins runners contested the Scottish National at Ayr a fortnight ago: Chosen Witness, Olympic Man, Spanish Harlem and Klarc Kent. 

Chosen Witness raced prominently but was eventually pulled up while both Olympic Man and Spanish Harlem didn't fence particularly well on the day; Klarc Kent on the other hand jumped the final flight three lengths to the good before being collared on the run to the line by stablemate Cool Cody.

Lombron, with Rachael Blackmore up, was pulled up on his sole start over three miles while O'Moore Park was beaten by the Skelton trained Riskintheground over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham ten days ago.

To my mind Minella Cocooner appeals most from the Mullins runners but there's no value in his current price.

Having said that, searching for a viable each-way play is beginning to look like something of a fool's errand.

Paul Kealy put up Victtorino in the RP Weekender. 

This one is best going right-handed and has won on good ground previously but stable form has been poor recently, although Hunter Legend obliged for connections at Bangor yesterday.

The suspicion is both Jonjo O'Neill runners - Monbeg Genius and Collectors Item - would want more cut underfoot.    

Resplendent Grey and Transmission finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Haiti Couleurs at Cheltenham in March (Klarc Kent eighth) - that form received a boost on Monday when the winner picked up the Irish National at Fairyhouse; off level weights, I'd expect Resplendent Grey to confirm the form.

Knockanore won the Eider 16 lengths in February but finished 33 lengths behind Mr Vango in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter - and is 15 pounds 'wrong' here.

I'm going to take a chance with King's Threshold who has won his last three but still goes from eight pounds out of the handicap. 

Writing in the RP Weekender [29.01-02.02.25] trainer Emma Lavelle said:

"He has plenty of ability but he's a fine-margin horse - he wants everything right for him. I've just fired his palate because he can make a bit of a noise and I think there are plenty more races in him. He's got himself well handicapped this season."

He has won on good ground and going right-handed; the trip is a step into the unknown.

King's Threshold is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 22/1 with Paddy Power who pay six places. 

The 2025 Scottish Grand National

In a bid to wrestle a second consecutive British trainers' title from Dan Skelton, Willie Mullins' bandwagon rolls in to Ayr...

Six of the yard's original 11 entries for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (3.35) have made the final declaration stage in a field of 23 runners; those who waited to see what Paul Townend chose to ride waited in vain - the stable's star jockey hasn't been booked for a ride since finishing second on I Am Maximus at Aintree last Saturday.

At the time of writing four of the six Mullins horses are prominent in the market: Chosen Witness, with Sean O'Keefe up; Olympic Man (Mr P W Mullins); Captain Cody (Harry Cobden); and last year's winner Macdermott (Danny Mullins) .

Chosen Witness has yet to win a race over fences in three starts but he was travelling well enough at Navan last time when unseating Paul Townend in a race won by Better Days Ahead - who subsequently finished third in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival.

Olympic Man is another with just three chase starts to his name. He won over two and a half miles at Naas last time out but, to date, hasn't always appeared particularly fluent over his fences.

Captain Cody has yet to win in four chase starts; he unseated mid-race behind Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Festival last month (Rock My Way second, Klarc Kent eighth, Hasthing fell at final fence when probably booked for fourth) and looks high enough in the handicap on 140.

In last year's renewal Macdermott (137) pipped Surrey Quest (133) a nose, with  Klarc Kent fourth (132), Spanish Harlem sixth (140), and Mr Incredible (153) pulled up. 

Macdermott's form looks rather indifferent this season yet he goes off 142 while this race has been a stated target for Surrey Quest who races off 139. 

Spanish Harlem, beaten just over eight lengths and now four pounds lower, appears feasibly treated on 136 while Klarc Kent - along with Magna Sam and Brandt - runs from out of the handicap this year but hinted at a return to form in the National Hunt Challenge Cup.

It all brings back memories of younger days when, on my annual trip to the Festival, I'd try to pick the Mullins trained winner of the Cheltenham bumper - more often than not, the market proved of no practical use whatsoever...

One final observation on last year's race, run on ground officially described as soft. 

11 of the 26 runners completed, all carrying under 11 stones; less than 10 lengths separated the first seven home, with all 11 finishers in a ratings band between 132 - 141.

In 2004 Grey Abbey carried 11-12 to victory; since then only four winners have carried more than 11-00: Godsmejudge (11-03, 2013); Vicente (11-03, 2016 and 11-10, 2017); and Mighty Thunder (11-01, 2021).

The going this year is described as good to soft; Skelton relies on Sail Away and Snipe in his bid to land the £112,540 first prize. He'll certainly feel encouraged by the treble he sent out at the Scottish venue today: Roxanne (100/30); Riskintheground (13/2); and Asta La Pasta (6/4f). 

Sail Away and Snipe finished second and third behind The Doyen Chief at Warwick just over a fortnight ago, beaten a neck and six and threequarters lengths; the winner was probably worth more than the official winning margin that day and has the bet365 Chase at Sandown as his target. 

Sail Away hasn't come home in front since winning the 2023 running of the Novices' Championship Handicap Chase at this meet off 136 but his last two runs have hinted at better to come - he bled from the nose when third behind The Doyen Chief on his penultimate start. He'll appreciate better ground and is feasibly treated on a mark of 132 although the trip is a journey into the unknown.

Previously Snipe came home third behind Docpickedme in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster in January, where Walking On Air fell jumping the last when looking the likely winner.

Harry Skelton rides Sail Away and that one looks the stable's main hope.  

New handler Faye Bramley, based at A P McCoy's pre-training yard in Lambourn, saddles Walking On Air for the first time. When with Gary Brown, the gelding finished eleventh behind Daily Present in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 30 days ago, a race in which Grozni finished sixth, Wiseguy seventh and Dom Of Mary eighth.

On his only try beyond three and a quarter miles Henry's Friend was pulled up behind Corbetts Cross in the 2024 National Hunt Challenge Cup. 

He appears to have his share of weight here - a comment that also applies to Our Power - while I noted Finn Lambert hard at work some way from home when The Kniphand stayed on to finish second behind Moroder in the Grimthorpe last month.

Rock My Way will need to jump better than last time to give himself a chance, a comment that also applies to Hasthing who wears cheekpieces for the first time. 

When Famous Bridge wore cheekpieces for the first time he scooted away from Apple Away after the last in Haydock's Grand National Trial. He was raised four pounds for that effort, then dropped one after finishing sixth behind Myretown in the Ultima. That still leaves Nicky Richards' charge on a mark of 141 and the stable has been quiet recently, although Summergrounds won the concluding handicap hurdle earlier today.   

Back in February the 11-year-old Magna Sam won the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh by nine and a half lengths off a mark of 114 (Surrey Quest third); he was raised eight pounds for his efforts but still races from out of the handicap tomorrow. 

In 2023 Alastair Ralph's charge finished fifth behind Kitty's Light in this race, two places behind 40/1 shot Flash De Touzaine; Liz Doyle's charge bounced back to form to win a Veterans' Chase at Limerick last month. 

Brandt won the Dublin Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over an extended three and a half miles last time off a mark of 110, with Tiernan Roche claiming five. He races from four pounds out of the handicap tomorrow; the booking of Sean Bowen certainly catches the eye.  

And Alice Stevens, claiming three, has the been given the unenviable task of cajoling former Mullins inmate Mr Incredible to put his best foot forward.

In summary...

I wouldn't be the only one surprised to see no runner from Lucinda Russell's stable in this field - Whistle Stop Tour goes in the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase at 1.43. 

Those on the shortlist include Surrey Quest, Spanish Harlem, Famous Bridge and Magna Sam. 

Surrey Quest looks solid - I'd expect him to reverse Edinburgh National form with Magna Sam on this left-handed track - but a mark six pounds higher than last year is a challenge. 

A mark of 141 looks stiff enough for Famous Bridge but Spanish Harlem makes some appeal - four pounds lower than last year when beaten just over eight lengths. 

Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Spanish Harlem has yet to win a race for W P Mullins but there were hopeful signs at Punchestown last time while the time before he finished 33 lengths behind Nick Rockett in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. 

I'd like to think he can show some improvement on last year's effort.

Spanish Harlem is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally at the time of writing but 14/1 with Paddy Power who pay six places. 

Aintree Grand National 2025

Yesterday marked the 19th anniversary of the blog's very first post. 

If he were still alive today, my Latin teacher would have probably said: 'Jove! Tempus fugit!', then crossed the Via Acacia and rushed into our local Ladbrokes to stick 20 denarii on favourite I Am Maximus for this year's National.

Last year I Am Maximus beat Delta Work seven and a half lengths off a mark of 159 (Minella Indo third, Meetingofthewaters seventh, Coko Beach eleventh and Vanilier fourteenth); he races off 167 tomorrow, bidding to become the first horse to win back-to-back Nationals since Tiger Roll in 2018/19, and the first to carry top weight to victory since Red Rum in 1974. 

This is the second year with a reduced field size of 34 runners; the going is currently described as good to soft and they're due off at 4.00pm.   

Since 2015 a horse aged either eight or nine has won the National, with the one exception being Noble Yeats who won the 2022 renewal when seven.

The market is dominated by a number of Irish trained runners; this year Willie Mullins has six entries, Gordon Elliott five, Gavin Cromwell three. 

Of the Mullins runners, Minella Cocooner will be suited by drying conditions. He won the bet365 Chase on good ground at Sandown last April off 152 (Nick Rockett third, Theeunderthrufive thirteenth). 

Meetingofthewaters didn't quite see out the trip last year in seventh on ground described as good to soft, soft in places. He hasn't appeared in such good form this term but has higher hopes of lasting home on better ground.

Nick Rockett held Intense Raffles threequarters of a length in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse six weeks ago but meets last year's Irish Grand National winner 15 pounds worse off. 

Intense Raffles would probably prefer more cut underfoot.

Three Card Brag is probably Gordon Elliott's best chance; the booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye but stable form is a concern with just two wins from 42 runs in the past fortnight.

Gavin Cromwell has told the TV cameras he can't split his three. 

Stumptown looked to have a hard enough race winning the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham three and a half weeks ago with stablemate Vanilier doing well in the circumstances to finish third, having almost taken the wrong route early on.

Perceval Legallois had Nick Rockett, Three Card Brag, Horantzau D'Airy and Meetingofthewaters in arrears in a Listed Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and has the assistance of Mark Walsh in the saddle.   

Owner J.P.McManus relies on five as he bids to win the race for a fourth time: the well-backed I Am Maximus (W.P.Mullins); Iroko (O.Greenall & J.Guerriero); Perceval Legallois (G.Cromwell); Meetingofthewaters (W.P.Mullins); and Chantry House (N.Henderson).

Hewick famously cost £800 and is famously small but Shark Hanlon's charge has the heart of a lion and famously mugged Bravemansgame to win the 2023 King George at Kempton; drying ground helps his cause. 

At the time of writing Iroko is the only British trained runner near the top of the market. 

This race has been his target since he finished second behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin at this meeting last year; this season connections have campaigned their charge in such a way as to protect his handicap mark of 152.

Paul Nicholls saddles five with Kandoo Kid, the Coral Gold Cup winner in November, probably his best chance. 

Of his other runners Bravemansgame doesn't look the force of old but Threeunderthrufive was beaten just over six lengths on good ground in the 2023 Scottish Grand National at Ayr and showed his current wellbeing when beaten a nose by Victtorino at Ascot seven weeks ago. Harry Cobden rides Kandoo Kid, with Harry Skelton aboard Threeunderthrufive.

The BBC's Grand National Pinstickers' Guide may prove of more use than what follows... 

On Monday evening I bet Beauport each-way at odds of 33/1 with Sky (six places). 

Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge won the 2024 Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and on seasonal debut won the Berkshire National Handicap Chase at Ascot on good ground. 

He's a proven stayer and can handle drying ground. 

On Wednesday Paul Kealy made a similar case in the RP Weekender, stating if the horse were trained in Ireland, he would likely be priced up around the 8/1 - 10/1 mark; there's perhaps some journalistic hyperbole in that statement.  

The two main concerns are he's on a mark 12 pounds higher after Ascot and, on occasions at Uttoxeter, he jumped right, a trait he hadn't shown previously on a left-handed track.

Still, he has been in very good form this term.

Of course, dangers abound everywhere - it's the Grand National! To my mind Iroko and Minella Cocooner pose big threats but, forget that, this evening Betfred stand out from the crowd by paying seven places.

Beauport is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 22/1 with Betfred who are paying the seven places.

Aintree 2025 - Friday

After Willie Mullins trains the winners of the first four races on Thursday's card, here are two selections for Ladies' Day... 

On New Year's Day I bet Lounge Lizard in a race at Cheltenham - watching his jumping there was no cure for anyone's hangover and certainly no way to celebrate the new year.

However five weeks ago he bounced back to form to win on good to soft ground at Huntingdon.

The Topham (4.05) has been the long-term target; he missed last year's renewal after he banged himself and went lame 24 hours before the race. 

Trainer Henry Daly said his charge jumped well and enjoyed himself over these fences in the 2023 Becher (prominent, weakened from two out) but he never got home in soft ground.

The step back to two miles five and drying conditions here are positives; he's quirky but, if he's in the mood, I think he can be competitive.

Lounge Lizard is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 20/1 with bet365 and 18/1 with William Hill, both paying six places.

The concluding conditional jockeys' and amateur riders' handicap hurdle (5.15) looks monstrous but two have piqued interest. 

Afadil appears well handicapped, having finished third in this last year off a mark of 130 and racing off 124 tomorrow.

Last time out he looked a tad unfortunate to be mugged close home by Go Dante in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, losing second spot to Wreckless Eric in the shadow of the post. Connections fit cheekpieces for the first time to help the cause.

Handicap debutants include Celtic Dino, Diamonds For Luck, Jack Hyde and Grimaud; Dylan Johnson prefers Celtic Dino ahead of top weight Lump Sum.

Fiercely Proud brings strong handicap form to the table, having finished sixth in the Greatwood, and then winning the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas. Ben Pauling's charge was found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat when pulled up in the William Hill Hurdle (formerly the Betfair Hurdle) at Newbury in February.

Moon Chime has been well backed during the day and is now 10/1 generally, 12/1 with Ladbrokes. 

After beating Balhambar nine lengths at Stratford last month, joint trainer Graeme McPherson said they were pleased to see Moon Chime back to the horse they thought they had following recent wind surgery. 

The handicapper raised him 11 pounds for that effort; connections hinted that the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock might be next on the agenda after this. 

He needs a good quick two miles and I'd imagine that's what he'll get here; Nick Slatter had been pencilled in to ride but I see Mr Tommie M O'Brien, claiming three, is in the saddle.

I had an each-way interest in Alnilam in the Morebattle at Kelso last time, when I also happened to learn the horse is named after the central star in Orion's belt, located between Mintaka and Alnitak. 

Anyway, Olly Murphy's star looked the winner turning for home but was collared by Cracking Rhapsody on the climb to the line (Old Gregorian noted with a career best in third, Slugger fourth and Cormier sixth). 

This flat track and drying ground will suit and Beau Morgan's five pounds allowance means he's effectively competing off a mark two pounds lower.

Having missed the fancy prices about Moon Chime, I'll take an each-way interest in Alnilam, 14/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

Aintree 2025 - Thursday

Just one selection for the first day of this year's Grand National meeting.

The Kalooki Kid takes his chance in the opening Manifesto Novices' Chase (1.45) yet looks to face a stiff task in this Grade 1 contest. 

Seven of his eight rivals boast a higher rating - Nicky Richards' charge has some 21 pounds to find with Arkle winner Jango Baie. That said, connections hold their grey in high regard and think he'll be good enough to compete in competitive handicaps such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup in the future; at the time of writing bet365 and William Hill offer 33/1 (three places) but I'm not tempted.

Four years ago Ahoy Senor went into everyone's notebook after beating Bravemansgame seven lengths in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle at odds of 66/1 on just his second start over hurdles. 

Lucinda Russell's charge hasn't seen a hurdle in public since; over fences he has tended to look like a horse with a mistake in him. 

His very best form is over the Mildmay fences - his record reads 13223, with two of those defeats behind Shishkin in the 2023 Aintree Bowl and Gerri Colombe in last year's renewal. He takes his chance again this year (3.30) but that looked a bit of a crunching fall he took in the Gold Cup just 20 days ago...

With a few layers paying five places, I'm going to take a chance on one in the Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (4.05), the first race of the meeting run over the National fences.

Current favourite Willitgoahead ran into a place behind Wonderwall in the St James's Place Open Hunters' Chase - often referred to as the amateur riders' Gold Cup - at the Festival 20 days ago (Ontheropes eighth, Bardenstown Lad eleventh). The step back in trip here wouldn't necessarily play to his strengths.

Mr William Biddick was in the plate when Famous Clermont beat Bennys King in this race in 2023 while Bennys King and Annamix finished second and third respectively behind Its On The Line last year. 

This year Mr Biddick is aboard My Drogo who, back in 2021, won the Grade 1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle at this meeting. Owned and bred by Mr & Mrs Richard Kelvin-Hughes, My Drogo was moved out of Dan Skelton's yard in December, presumably with this race as a target.

A pertinent piece of form is the Walrus Open Hunters' Chase run at Haydock seven weeks ago. 

That day My Drogo reeled in Gracchus De Balme after the last, with Jet Plane, following a bad mistake at the final flight, finishing third, some six lengths behind the winner.

10 days later Gracchus De Balme was pulled up behind Bennys King in the Cottesmore Open Hunters' Chase at Leicester (Autonomous Cloud second, Bothwell Bridge third). 

At 14 years of age Bennys King is the oldest horse in this race but on past form he'll have more behind him than in front at the finish. 

Lifetime Ambition's fourth over these fences behind Al Dancer in the 2022 Grand Sefton is noteworthy; Percussion has performed well over these fences in the past but is likely to be outpaced at this distance.

Senior Citizen has been placed in a Grand Sefton and a Topham when trained by Alan King; on his first run for Alan Hill he won a three mile point 15 lengths and apparently underwent wind surgery less than three weeks ago.

Coming back to that Haydock form, there wouldn't be an awful lot between My Drogo and Gracchus De Balme, while Jet Plane would have finished closer to the leading pair with a better leap at the last. The market doesn't reflect the form with My Drogo 6/1 generally, Gracchus De Balme 20/1 and Jet Plane 28/1.

Gracchus De Balme is tempting but the Leicester run is disconcerting - just 10 days after Haydock it probably came too quickly. At the prices, I'll chance Jet Plane.

Jet Plane is the each-way selection, at the time of writing 28/1 with William Hill who pay five places. 

Aintree aspirants

Seven days after this year's Gold Cup, I found myself in Cheltenham - Inothewayurthinkin. 

Actually, I was there for my daughter's wedding.

In the evening of the following day, the day after the main event in a manner of speaking, while my wife and I were looking for a quiet place to eat with the aim of recharging run-down batteries, we came across a review of The Tivoli, penned by The Times' restaurant critic Giles Coren.

Mr Coren describes the establishment as '...a wonderful, huge old building on Andover Road in the grand/shabby curate's egg of a town that is Cheltenham.' 

Now, for at least 40 years I've considered Cheltenham - the home of National Hunt racing - a place of sacred pilgrimage, to be spoken of in revered, hushed tones only; the tweed set may baulk a little at Mr Coren's irreverence but I found it singularly refreshing.

The accompaniment to our meal at The Tivoli was a Blues playlist that proved most invigorating; as I paid the bill and handed my feedback form to the waitress, I asked if she would be so kind as to send me details of the playlist.

To date, I haven't heard a pip, and it must be a 33/1 longshot I ever will. 

I've noticed that about organisations generally - they have no qualms in pestering you for feedback yet when you ask for feedback on your feedback, they can't be bothered to respond...

Anyway, the Lincoln at Doncaster takes centre stage tomorrow; Ascot's card on Sunday - the main jumps meeting of the weekend - has seen field sizes decimated by the drying ground. 

Court Cian goes in the finale at 5.40 - an acquaintance of mine owns a share. 

Apparently the gelding's comfortable win at Market Rasen last time came as a bit of a surprise to connections so I might give the guy a bell beforehand, just to see what they're expecting this time around.  

With Aintree on the horizon, I've spent a bit of time looking for horses whose connections have, at some point previously, indicated this forthcoming Aintree meet was a possible target. 

The list below is far from exhaustive and I'm sure the whole exercise will prove little more than an exercise in futile displacement activity; still, it beats watching the news on the television.

Arayapearl / Peter & Mickey Bowen

Straight from the Stable [RP Weekender 26-30.03.25]:

"She has never run before but works really well at home. We haven't had time to give her a run in between but her work is better than any of our youngsters. She's a really nice filly and will run in the Aintree bumper as well. She'd be my dark horse." 

Battle Born Lad / Mark Walford 

Talented but quirky individual.

After passing the post to win the Grade 2 Prestige Novices' Hurdle at Haydock 15.02.25, he unseated jockey Jamie Hamilton. Later the jockey said:

"He's not an easy ride as he's free-going, he hangs and always looks for a way out. He was still full of it, I turned in and couldn't believe how well I was going. I'd say Cheltenham would be too soon, but there's always Aintree." 

Castle Carrock / Alan .King  

Bought out of Nicky Richards' stable for £100,000 after winning a bumper at Ayr on good ground. Beat 2/9f Diva Luna in a Sandown novice 24.01.25 and then third behind Jet To Vegas in the Grade 2 Premier Novices' Hurdle at Kelso 01.03.25. Trainer states [RP Weekender 26-30.03.25]:

"Castle Carrock will be in the 2m and 2m 4f novice hurdles. If they look red hot, we have the option of giving him an extra week and waiting for Ayr instead." 

Charisma Cat / Alan King

Won the Listed mares' bumper at Sandown 08.03.25. Trainer states [RP Weekender 26-30.03.25]:

"...Charisma Cat is a possible for the mares' bumper on the opening day. 

"I haven't done a lot with her since her win at Sandown and I'd want to be 100 per cent happy with her if I was to run. Otherwise we'll put her away."

Holds an entry (5.15 Thursday)

Dedicated Hero / Sandy Thomson 

After winning the Grade 2 Rossington Main Hurdle at Haydock 18.01.25 rider Ryan Mania said:

"The original plan was the Premier Hurdle at Kelso as he's won twice there and then maybe Aintree..."

Declared a non-runner on the day in Kelso's Premier Hurdle.

Fingle Bridge / Olly Murphy 

Beat Regent's Stroll in a Listed novice at Exeter 09.02.25; needs proper soft ground. 

Horaces Pearl / Fergal O'Brien 

Won Newbury novice 28.02.25 over extended 2m 4f; jumping still a work in progress. Beat stablemate Tripoli Flyer in last season's Aintree bumper. Possible target: Grade 1 novice race.

Jet To Vegas / Lucinda Russell 

Won Grade 2 Premier Novices' Hurdle at Kelso 01.03.25 despite jumping right, Castle Carrock nine and a half lengths third. Afterwards trainer said:

"He normally has to go right handed but it was worth taking a chance here. As he got tired, he jumped straight, when he was fresh he jumped right handed. He'll go to Aintree."

Jurancon / David Pipe  

Has form behind The Kemble Brewery and beat Tripoli Flyer in a Chepstow maiden 06.11.24. After winning on handicap debut at Newbury 01.03.25, trainer David Pipe said:

"He has got a great attitude, which is half the battle, and we might have a look at Aintree with him."  

Appears best suited by soft ground.

Live Conti / Dan Skelton 

Formerly with Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm in France. Won at Wetherby on stable debut for current connections 12.02.25 and was quoted a 20/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle. After that Wetherby win the trainer said:

"We got Live Conti in November and I'm glad we didn't run him earlier as he's really improved in the last month and keeps thriving. 

"The form of his Auteuil race is very good and we'll decide whether we go to Cheltenham or go to Aintree, but he's a horse who is further down the line as he's already quite furnished and strong."

Holds entry in Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (2.30 Thursday)

Lounge Lizard / Henry Daly 

I tipped Lounge Lizard for a race at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. After the event (fourth, 21 lengths behind Springwell Bay) I wrote that his jumping 'left a lot to be desired, looking laboured and cumbersome on more than one occasion'. 

In an apparent return to form, the rascal won the Prestige Developments John Bigg "Oxo" Handicap Chase at Huntingdon 02.03.25. After the race the trainer said:

"Lounge Lizard was unfortunate because it absolutely bucketed it last time and he doesn't like that wet ground. [Pulled up behind El Rio at Kempton 07.02.25]. I'm not sure if he didn't get a bit bored in the closing stages today. He jumped very nicely today and the plan is Aintree [Topham]. We got as far as declaring him last year, but unfortunately he went lame 24 hours before because he banged himself. He ran in the Becher last term and ran well, jumped well and enjoyed it, but it was very soft and he never got home. We set out our stall to run in the race last year and again this year."   

At the time of writing quoted 25/1 for the Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 Friday); needs 13 runners to scratch to make the cut. 

Moon Chime / D.Killahena & Graeme McPherson 

Back on track at Stratford last time 10.03.25. After that race Graeme McPherson said:

"It's nice to see Moon Chime back and like the horse we thought we had. We had his wind done after Carlisle and at Ludlow last month it didn't work, but everything fell into place there. I think we'll look at the two-mile conditionals' race at Aintree [on April 4]. We've got a great lad in Nick Slatter who has won on him so the race could be tailor-made for him. Then possibly we can go on to the Swinton at Haydock. He loves a good quick two miles and we can look at better races again."  

Rubber Ball / Neil King 

Aintree mooted a possibility after Rubber Ball won a novice hurdle at Newbury 08.02.25. 

The Kalooki Kid / Nicky Richards 

Won the Scottish Champion Chase at Musselburgh over an extended two mile four furlong trip 01.02.25. After the race the trainer said:

"The Kalooki Kid is a good traveller, good jumper and that was a good display on just his third chase. He's doing well for a young horse and my owners are local from Kirkcaldy so they are over the moon. I don't know what the handicapper will do, but I think he's got Aintree written all over him. There's a two-and-a-half-mile chase that might suit him, and looking towards next year, something like the Paddy Power at Cheltenham might suit." 

Holds an entry in the Manifesto Novices' Chase (1.45 Thursday)

There Runs Mary / Olly Murphy. 

Cost 105,000 euros. Wins a mares' bumper at Wincanton 30.01.25 in a time 7.7 seconds faster than the second division of the race. Next time unable to concede weight to Heron In The Park in mares' bumper at Newbury 01.03.25. Mares' bumper identified as a possible target but not entered up.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - the betting debrief

This year seven of the blog's eight highlighted selections came under starter's orders over the four days - Langer Dan was a non-runner, declared to be suffering from a respiratory infection on the morning of the Stayers' Hurdle.

Shown below the recorded loss to level stakes (1 point win, 0.5 points each-way with each-way returns calculated to one fifth the odds):  

Outlay over four days: 7 points

Return over four days: 1.9 points

Profit / Loss: -5.1 points

Loss as percentage of outlay: 72.86%

Brief notes on individual selections:

Malina Girl (bet struck:14/1 each-way; third in Ultima)

Good run behind Myretown and The Changing Man. Winner impressive.

Herakles Westwood (bet struck: 20/1 each-way; seventh in National Hunt Challenge Cup)

Towards rear; never threatened.

Potters Charm (bet struck: 14/1 each-way; fifth in Turners)

Outpaced by market principals off home bend.

Libberty Hunter (bet struck: 33/1 each-way; fell in Champion Chase)

Four lengths down and creeping into contention when falling three out.

Primoz (bet struck: 20/1 each-way; fourteenth in Grand Annual)

Lost any chance in chaotic start.

Protektorat (bet struck: 6/1 win; fourth in Ryanair) 

Outpaced from three out; winner Fact To File impressive.

Our Champ (bet struck: 50/1 each-way; sixth in County Hurdle)

Led; tapped for toe off home bend, stayed on up the hill. 

The Champion Hurdle set the tone for a dramatic week with the two former winners in the field, Constitution Hill and State Man, both falling, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. Golden Ace, trained by Jeremy Scott, picked up the pieces.

Inothewayurthinkin denied Galopin Des Champs a third victory in the Gold Cup while Fact To File put up an imperious display in the Ryanair.   

Marine Nationale, forever associated with Michael O'Sullivan, proved a fitting winner of the Champion Chase while Bob Olinger denied Teahupoo in the Stayers' Hurdle.

The final result of the Prestbury Cup: Great Britain 8 Ireland 20

Just one British trained runner contested the Supreme and there were no British entries in a final field of seven in the Brown Advisory. 

Once again Willie Mullins was the leading trainer at the Festival, equalling his previous record total of 10 winners. He fielded 11 of the 18 runners in the Triumph and won it with 100/1 shot Poniros who was racing over hurdles for the very first time. 

Shambolic starts and the drop in attendance figures are two topics we're likely to hear more about in the coming days.  

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Friday

Earlier today Frank Keogh reported that the attendance on Wednesday was the lowest seen at the Festival since 1993.

Fact To File looked something special in the Ryanair this afternoon and, in other news, Frankie Dettori has announced he's filing for bankruptcy...

Malina Girl ran a creditable third on Tuesday but otherwise it has been a miserable, downward spiral for the blog's selections. Only one pick for the final day - and I'm not confident it's going to turn the tide... 

1.20 Triumph Hurdle

No bet for me in a race I'm not particularly fond of. 

Willie Mullins saddles 11 of the 18 runners; Paul Townend rides filly Lady Vega Allen. 

Tom Segal penned a piece in the RP Weekender [29.01-02.02] headlined "Flat-bred East India Dock set to find Triumph beyond him". To summarise, most of the current Flat bred horses aren't bred to stay any further than a mile whereas Jumps bred horses are stronger - and classier. 

Tom believes East India Dock won't be strong (or classy) enough to compete with the likes of Lulamba or a yet-to-be-revealed Mullins marvel.

Last time out East India Dock beat Stencil 10 lengths over the Triumph Hurdle course and distance on Trials Day; Stencil, sent off 11/4 favourite for the Fred Winter on Tuesday, finished down the field in 15th, with the comment 'weakened before the last' noted.

As a slight digression, I see East India Dock had a Flat rating of 89, Mondo Man a Flat rating of 111. 

The issue for the Gary Moore trained Mondo Man is he needs to learn to settle - he patently failed to do so in the Adonis at Kempton three weeks ago. On his previous run, in receipt of 10 pounds, he finished three and a half lengths behind Lulamba, despite having pulled hard in rear; he's in the same ownership as Botox Has and Nassalam.

Back in 2020 the same yard ran Goshen  - Flat rating of 80 at the time - in this race; ten lengths clear coming to the last, he made a mistake and dumped Jamie Moore on the turf. 

Connections fit a hood for the first time tomorrow and Brian Hughes replaces Caoilin Quinn in the saddle. I'll keep an eye out for the partnership during the race - a decent pace should help their cause.

2.00 County Hurdle

Sixteen declared. 

Absurde won this last year off 138 before embarking on a Flat campaign that culminated in a trip to Australia; this year he goes off 146. 

Willie Mullins' charge benefits from a hold-up ride and likes to weave his way through the field at the business end of a race. Last time out he finished fifth in the Melbourne Cup behind Knight's Choice, beaten under two lengths.

Paul Townend rides stablemate Kargese. Last time out this one was beaten at odds of 2/5f in the Warfield Mares' Hurdle run on good ground at Ascot. Since 2010 the Mullins yard has trained the winner of this on seven occasions.

The Skelton yard regularly targets this race and have had plenty of success in recent years with Superb Story (2016); Mohaayed (2018); Ch'tibello (2019) and Faivoir (2023). Valgrand flies the flag this year but he ran no sort of race when last seen behind Ooh Betty at Kempton over Christmas.

Hansard was fourth in that Kempton race and subsequently ran well behind Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday!) in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. The yard is in better form now, operating at a 25% win strike rate over the past fortnight.

Cracking Rhapsody looked good in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso 13 days ago; connections will pick up a bonus if they win here but Ewan Whillans' charge has tended to show his very best form at Kelso. 

I'm going to have a bet on Our Champ in this because I think he's overpriced at 50/1 provided the ground has dried out sufficiently and the showers stay away. 

Back in October he won the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle run on good ground at Ascot, beating Break My Soul a nose with Secret Squirrel third, Afadil fourth and Fiercely Proud falling when disputing second. 

The yard were going through a lean spell at the time - as they are now - but he got the job done that day despite Freddie Gordon dropping his whip in the final 110 yards. 

Secret Squirrel has subsequently won a competitive handicap at Windsor, Afadil was third in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last Saturday while Fiercely Proud reversed form with the selection in the Ladbrokes at Ascot in December run on good to soft ground.

I bet Our Champ in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury five weeks ago where soft ground went against him; he finished eighth behind Joyeuse (Secret Squirrel fell at the last, Fiercely Proud pulled up and later found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat).

He ran without the tongue-tie at Newbury but it's back in place now. He has won on the Old Course here and ran third behind Tintintin on the New Course last April.

In a stable tour article [RP Weekender 26.02-02.03] handler Chris Gordon said:

"He'll go for the County Hurdle and he'll run really well if it dries up."

At the time of writing the going on the New Course is good to soft - the showers will need to stay away before the off.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 50/1 with William Hill and bet365, both paying five places. 

4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Galopin Des Champs will face eight rivals in his bid to win a third successive Gold Cup. 

Henrietta Knight, who trained Best Mate to achieve the feat (2002 -2004), thinks he will win.

Banbridge is no pushover on drying ground while course and distance winner Inothewayurthinkin, supplemented at a cost of £25,000, is 7/1 favourite for the Aintree Grand National.

Inothewayurthinkin and Monty's Star were fourth and fifth respectively behind Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Corbetts Cross didn't appear to have the best prep behind Pic D'Orhy at Ascot last month and wouldn't be suited by drying ground while The Real Whacker and Gentlemansgame were both pulled up in this race last year.

Ahoy Senor has shown his best form at Aintree, Royal Pagaille at Haydock.

At 6/1 Banbridge was an each-way bet to nothing but the price has disappeared; a race to watch and savour then.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Thursday

An emotional second day with victories for Marine Nationale in the Champion Chase and Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual.

Two days in, and there have been some unsatisfactory starts to races - a debate for another day, no doubt.

A couple of suggestions for Thursday...

3.20 Ryanair Chase

A hot looking renewal.

Favourite Fact To File won the Brown Advisory here last year despite jumping right on occasions. 

He beat the current Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs over two miles three and a half in November and has since twice finished behind Galopin Des Champs over an extended three miles at Leopardstown - no disgrace at all - in the Savills Chase over Christmas and in the Irish Gold Cup last month.

I'm guessing connections have reasoned they're not going to beat Galopin Des Champs so they step back in trip here. Connections of last year's winner, Protektorat, followed a similar path after finishing fifth behind the same horse in the 2023 Gold Cup.

Protektorat did the blog a favour in this race last year and this has been his target. 

Things went awry in the Peterborough Chase won by Djelo where hold-up tactics patently failed to work. Allowed to bowl along in front at Windsor next time, Dan Skelton's charge comfortably beat that rival 23 lengths. 

He is seen at his best sitting just off a strong pace which he's likely to get with Il Est Francais in the field.

Il Est Francais went into everyone's notebook when jumping like a stag to make all and win the 2023 renewal of the Kauto Star at Kempton; he might prove difficult to catch on the front end. Since moving to Tom George in 2022 all his racing has been at either Auteuil or Kempton Park.

Henry De Bromhead saddles three; the yard is slowly emerging from a lean spell. 

Jungle Boogie may be 11 years of age but he doesn't have many miles on the clock (just five chase starts to date). Sixth in last year's Gold Cup - mistake three out when travelling well enough - he's another to step back in distance. On his sole start since, he won comfortably at Ascot in December although main rival Iroko (11/8f) was hampered and came a cropper at the first.

Envoi Allen, another 11 year old, won the 2023 renewal of this race and finished second behind Protektorat last year. Rachael Blackmore rides, suggesting this one might be the stable's main hope.

Heart Wood finished seven and a half lengths adrift of Fact To File in the Savills Chase over Christmas.

Master Chewy showed plenty of resolve when beating Libberty Hunter in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time; this represents his first chase start beyond two miles one furlong.

Hang In There likes decent ground but on his first run since November he's likely to have other targets during the spring / summer. 

Only three horses older than nine have won this since the inaugural running in 2005: Fondmort (2006); Our Vic (2008); and Albertas Run (2011). 

I'm staying loyal to Protektorat.

Protektorat is the win selection, generally a 6/1 shot.

4.00 Stayers' Hurdle

Teahupoo won this last year but could prove vulnerable on drying ground. 

Handler Joseph O'Brien had a strong word for Home By The Lee in a TV snippet on Tuesday..

Connections seem confident Lucky Place can stay this trip. He gave weight and a beating to Gowel Road, Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday), and Langer Dan on New Year's Day.

Off a mark of 145 The Wallpark gave Gowel Road four pounds and a two and a half length beating in a Pertemps qualifier over course and distance in the autumn. He made up plenty of ground late on in the Long Walk to finish fourth behind Crambo last time; drying ground will suit.

Langer Dan isn't the easiest to predict but he tends to show his best form at this time of year. Second behind a horse called Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 renewal of the Martin Pipe, he won the Coral Cup in 2023 and 2024 and steps up to three miles for the first time.

Dan Skelton said in a stable tour before the start of the core season:

"I do have concerns about how he behaves in the autumn and the winter because historically he hasn't been good. 

"He just gets a lot easier in the spring...

"Unless the first thee runs are absolutely diabolical we want to have a go at the Stayers' Hurdle."

Bob Olinger has twice finished behind Home By The Lee this season.

If Crambo could transfer his Ascot form to Cheltenham (won the last two renewals of the Long Walk Hurdle) he would be no 28/1 shot. Johnny Burke reported he ran flat in this last year when ninth while a bad mistake at the fifth last saw him finish fifth behind Gowel Road in the Cleeve on Trials Day (Monmiral second but declared a non-runner).

Nemean Lion has been in rude health this term, winning at Windsor in January (Langer Dan fifth) and beating Steel Ally a neck in the National Spirit at Fontwell. He steps up to three miles for the first time here, having been withdrawn from the Rendlesham at Haydock last month on account of the ground. 

After the National Spirit connections were reportedly thinking of bypassing this meet but have clearly had a change of heart. At the time Kerry Lee said:

"What a tough little cookie. Neman Lion loves racing and loves a fight.

"I think this gives me three possibilities. We might look at Auteuil, Fairyhouse and then there's of course the option of a Grade 1 at Aintree, whether over two and a half miles or three. He had a hard race so we'll have to see how he is in a couple of weeks." 

The suspicion is this may come too soon after the Fontwell race.

Buddy One was fourth in this race last year, beaten under nine lengths, but he doesn't appear to have taken too well to chasing this term. Last time out, reverting back to hurdles, he was pulled up behind Rocky Diamond in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park.

At 6/1 Home By The Lee looks an each-way bet to nothing against Teahupoo; The Wallpark has been well supported today.

It's inherently risky but I'm going to chance Langer Dan; he appeared to stay three miles when third behind Strong Leader in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and this was the stated plan in the autumn. 

Two consecutive wins in the Coral Cup read well; I'll be hoping the horse has engaged 'spring' mode.  

Langer Dan is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally, with most layers paying four places. 

I won't have a bet in the prosaically named TrustATrader Plate (4.40) but I've seen a comment somewhere yet have struggled to dig it out... 

Connections think course and distance winner Jagwar is a Graded level performer. If that's the case, he'll need to go close in this handicap off his current mark.

Finally, I note that Aworkinprogress, having missed the cut for the National Hunt Challenge Cup on Tuesday, has missed the cut for the Kim Muir at 5.20 but he holds an entry in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on Saturday for which he is currently priced up 6/1 favourite.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Wednesday

Still recovering from the high drama of the Champion Hurdle earlier this afternoon in which the two previous winners, Constitution Hill and State Man, both fell, the former four from home, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. 

Golden Ace (25/1) won, with Burdett Road (66/1) second and Winter Fog (150/1) third; the trifecta paid £4,432. 90.

1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle

Writing in the RP Weekender before the Dublin Racing Festival, Tom Segal was of the opinion The New Lion was the most exciting novice seen this season. Then Final Demand beat Wingmen 12 lengths in impressive style at Leopardstown. 

At the time of writing Final Demand and The New Lion share favouritism.

Yellow Clay beat Wingmen 11 lengths at Naas at the beginning of the year. 

In receipt of five pounds Sixmilebridge beat Potters Charm eight and a half lengths on the New Course on Trials Day. After the race Team Twiston-Davies admitted they had run there 'as an afterthought' and regretted doing so.  

Before that defeat Potters Charm had won twice on the Old Course in the autumn and then won the Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day. 

Back on the Old Course, and sporting a first-time tongue-tie, Potters Charm rates an each-way play.

Potters Charm is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing available at 14/1 with most layers. 

4.00 Champion Chase

Over the years I've had some wagers in this: Pearlyman, Latalomne - going well and fell two out two years on the trot, Special Tiara and, in 2004, Venn Ottery each-way @ 40/1. 

Owner Mr O.J. Carter declared Venn Ottery for the race without telling trainer, Mr P. Nicholls; unfortunately Mr Carter didn't declare the tongue-tie... 

The notes in-running state: "disputed second and going well two out, soon no chance with winner (Azertyuiop), ridden and weakened rapidly run-in."

Venn Ottery eventually finished fifth, beaten 23 lengths, but to this day I still maintain, if he had run with a tongue-tie, as intended...

Favourites have only won three of the past ten renewals but Jonbon has had a season to remember, winning the Schloer, the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House (Energumene second); many will feel he would be a deserved winner.

He was declared a non-runner for last year's renewal on account of the poor form of the Henderson yard at the time; prior to that he hadn't jumped well on the New Course when mugged by Elixir Du Nutz in the re-arranged Clarence House.

Energumene, owned by Tony Bloom, beat Captain Guinness 10 lengths in the 2023 renewal and isn't lightly dismissed, even at the age of 11. 

Mr Bloom also owns the heavily backed Bunting who has his first run in a handicap in the Coral Cup (2.40); given a mark of 135 by the Irish handicapper, he races off 139 in that two mile five contest. 

At Leopardstown over Christmas Solness beat Marine Nationale (third), Captain Guinness (fifth) and Found A Fitfy (pulled up). 

Then at the Dublin Racing Festival Joseph O'Brien's charge beat Marine Nationale (second), Quilixios (fourth) and Captain Guinness (sixth) - that looked a hard enough race on yielding ground and Marine Nationale posed a viable threat after the last.

Found A Fifty gave Solness seven pounds and a neck beating at Navan in November despite jumping right on occasions; that tendency to go right won't help his cause here. 

I'm pleased to see connections of Libberty Hunter have opted for this rather than the Grand Annual in which he was second last year (behind Unanswered Prayers) on just his fourth start over fences. 

Owners Mr & Mrs William Rucker have adopted a patient approach with this one; he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock for a nine year old. Ideally he wants softer ground but the uphill finish should play to his strengths and I think he can outrun odds of 33/1 - provided he can keep tabs on the early pace. 

The ratings tells us he has something to find with every other runner in this field but I like this horse and will have a bet.

Libberty Hunter is the each-way selection, 33/1 generally. 

4.40 Grand Annual

I'm going to take an interest in Primoz on the back of this comment made by trainer Lucinda Russell at Kelso on 14.02.25:

"Primoz is one of the most talented horses we've dealt with and we've changed his training programme a bit. I don't know where he'll go next but he's a very talented horse if we can get some consistency into him." 

I wrote that just before the yard's Myretown proved a blot on the handicap in the Ultima earlier today.

Primoz is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 in places with layers paying five places.

I'll pass on the Brown Advisory - a final field of seven all trained in Ireland -  and I usually end up feeling a bit dizzy after the Cross Country. My nap for the bumper, Windbeneathmywings, is out injured. That's racing, as they say. 

This evening spare a thought for Paul Townend. Five lengths clear coming to the last and another Champion Hurdle beckons. A long stride, a hurdle clipped, State Man falls, and it all disappears before your very eyes.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Tuesday

I'm struggling to recall a run-up to the Festival quite like it.

Greg Wood talks of the Festival at a crossroads in The Guardian while Cheltenham's new chief executive, Guy Lavender, predicts a fall in attendance from last year's figure of 229,999 (over four days).

The Sunday Times' royal editor Roya Nikkhah, in conversation with Nicky Henderson, talks of 'the 70,000-strong crowd expected on the first day'; that figure might prove optimistic.

Layers are reportedly bracing themselves as the following first day accumulator has proved popular with punters: Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme); Majboro (Arkle); Lossiemouth (Mares' Hurdle); and Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle).

Beware bookmakers crying wolf.

Just two British trained runners contest the Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20), the race this year named in memory of the jockey who won the 2023 renewal aboard Marine Nationale and died from injuries sustained in a fall at Thurles on February 6th.

Tripoli Flyer, trained by Fergal O'Brien, didn't jump particularly well when winning the Dovecote at Kempton 17 days ago but after the race his handler said:

"Tripoli Flyer has got a huge engine. Johnny [Burke] said you can put him where you want in a race, he's got an explosive bit of speed about him.

"I think he's genuinely better going right-handed and he does jump a bit right, but if it's nice ground I think he's earned his chance to go to the Supreme." 

Paul Nicholls saddles Tutti Quanti; on his blog the handler says:

"...on all known form he has a mountain to climb in this Grade 1."

Majboro faces just four opponents in the Arkle (2.00), Constitution Hill six in the Champion Hurdle (4.00). 

In receipt of the mares' allowance Brighterdaysahead looks a threat to the current champion whose speed over the hurdles is a sight to behold; I've no intention of having a bet in the race.  

For those considering a wager in a handicap, Kevin Blake provides a useful analysis of the marks allocated to Irish trained runners, along with a potted history of the trials and tribulations encountered by British and Irish handicappers in recent times.

Two each-way suggestions for Tuesday; the going on the Old Course is described as good to soft.

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Before his last run in the Reynoldstown three and a half weeks ago, The Changing Man had contested a number of competitive handicaps during the season, finishing second in the Rehearsal at Newcastle, second in the Howden Silver Cup at Ascot and second in the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster. 

By comparison, the win in the Reynoldstown had the look of a genteel schooling session with odds-on favourite and main rival Jingko Blue sprawling on landing at the third and unseating Nico De Boinville; the handicapper reacted by raising The Changing Man two pounds. 

Course and distance winner Broadway Boy likes to race from the front and was an excellent second behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury late in November, with Victtorino third and Henry's Friend fifth. 

Perhaps that race took more out of him than initially thought as he didn't jump well at the track on New Year's Day. He has been given every chance to recuperate.

Prior to the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton I'm sure I heard Sam Thomas describe runaway winner Katate Dori as 'slow'. He looked anything but that day, beating Hyland an eased-down 15 lengths. 

12 pounds higher in the handicap now, he has done a lot of his racing on right-handed tracks.

Both Lucinda Russell trained runners look unexposed. 

Myretown likes to race from the front whereas Whistle Stop Tour gained experience at the track last time when fifth behind Jagwar over a trip shorter than ideal. 

The trainer nominated the latter as her lively outsider of the week in the RP Cheltenham The Ultimate Guide publication.

Victtorino had a hard enough race when beating Threeunderthrufive a nose at Ascot 24 days ago while Henry's Friend meets Broadway Boy on worse terms than in the Coral Gold Cup.

Two under consideration are Malina Girl and Famous Bridge.

Malina Girl has run well here previously and back in December 2023 looked a threat to all when coming to grief three out in a race won by Broadway Boy; she was on a mark of 146 that day and goes off 142 tomorrow. The last Irish trained winner of this was Dun Doire in 2006.

Famous Bridge, fourth in this last year off 139, goes off 142 after scooting away from Apple Away to win the Grand National Trial at Haydock 24 days ago. First-time cheekpieces seemed to bring out improvement last time and they're retained here.

Malina Girl is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 generally, with several layers paying six places. 

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have both won three renewals in the past ten years; this is the first year the race will be run as a handicap.

Favourite Now Is The Hour beat Don't Rightly Know 17 lengths in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices' Hurdle at Haydock 12 months ago. On his four subsequent starts - all over fences - he hasn't  got his head in front but he couldn't quite reach the leaders at Navan seven weeks ago. 

Haiti Couleurs beat Transmission two and threequarters length at Cheltenham back in December over an extended three mile one furlong trip; they look closely matched. The fourth that day, Moon D'Orange, beat Grandeur D;Ame a short head in a handicap at the track on Trials Day.

I've just watched a replay of that race in December - Haiti Couleurs showed up prominently and jumped well while Transmission was slightly detached in rear for much of the trip, jumping low and out to his right on occasions. In addition he appeared slow at a couple of fences but the further they went, the more involved he became - the extra half mile here looks sure to suit.

Rebecca Curtis said of Haiti Couleurs [RP Weekender 05-09.02.25]:

"... the National Hunt Chase is the plan. I think it'll be the perfect race for him because I think the further he goes the better he'll be. We probably won't run before the festival to try to keep the mark of 135, although we have the option of a spin over hurdles." [third behind Santos Blue, Newbury, 08.02.25.]

Will Do was second over three miles three furlongs in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown 19 days ago. He looks Gordon Elliott's best chance; Jack Kennedy rides, having returned from injury on March 3rd.

Aworkinprogress has just missed the cut but is four from four over fences, winning at Lingfield last time; he's a horse for next year.

Resplendent Grey didn't jump particularly well behind Jagwar last time but has been the subject of market support.

Herakles Westwood won well at Windsor on his penultimate start (Gericault Roque third, Kyntara pulled up) and then ran flat at Newbury next time - I think he's better than he showed there. The step up in trip is a bit of a step into the unknown.

Gericault Roque has clearly had problems but back in 2022 he finished second in the Classic Chase at Warwick off 133, second in the Ultima behind Corach Rambler off 138 and third behind Le Milos in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 139. His third at Windsor in January was his first run in more than two years.

With Gericault Roque as low as 8/1 at the time of writing, I'm going to chance Herakles Westwood.

Herakles Westwood is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

Sandown's 2025 Imperial Cup

It's a spirited soul who saunters into the surreal world of slots.

Back in October 2020 Mrs Corrine Durber thought she had won a 'monster jackpot' totalling £1,097,132.71 on a Paddy Power slot described as 'a combination of a fruit machine and a wheel-of-fortune style game'.

Claiming a mapping error, Paddy Power only paid out the daily jackpot of £20,265.15 so Mrs Durber decided to sue PPB Entertainment. 

Earlier this week, four and a half years later, Mr Justice Ritchie ruled in her favour.

Mrs Durber said:

"I will never bet with them ever again."

At one point in court, Philip Hinks, counsel for PPB Entertainment, said what was shown on a customer's screen was irrelevant 'wallpaper'.

In the past, when I've tried using a similar line with my bank, I've been given extremely short shrift...   

Anyway, enough; take a look at this Tom Segal quotation from this week's RP Weekender:

"...it's just that on most Saturdays there are better betting opportunities for a value-based approach than there are throughout the whole of the Cheltenham Festival." 

With comments like that I thought I'd take the hint, have a stab at tomorrow's Imperial Cup (2.25 Sandown), and, in the process, generate my own irrelevant wallpaper. 

17 have been declared; the going on the hurdles track is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

This year there's a bonus on offer - the first time since 2021: £100,000 to the winner of this who goes on to win any race at Cheltenham next week. 

The following horses hold Festival entries: Afadil (County); Batman Girac (County); Bo Zenith (Coral Cup / Martin Pipe); Go Dante (County); Knickerbockerglory (County); Lump Sum (County); Ooh Betty (County); Spirits Bay (Coral Cup); Tapley (Jack Richards / Martin Pipe); and We're Red And Blue (County).

Lump Sum takes his chance with the result that the handicap has a lop-sided look to it; just four in the field carry more than 11-00 and only six are rated above the lowest rated winner of the past ten years - London Prize won off 128 in 2017.

Two potentially well-handicapped runners are Go Dante and Afadil.

Go Dante pipped Faivoir a nose to win last year's renewal off a mark of 129 and goes off 127 tomorrow.

Needless to say, Olly Murphy's charge hasn't been in such good form this term but his seventh place behind facile winner Joyeuse in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury four weeks ago (Lump Sum second, King William Rufus sixth) hinted at a possible return to form. Since 2000 only one nine-year-old has come home in front - Scorned in 2004. 

Afadil won the 2024 running of the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh off a mark of 124, and then, racing off a mark of 130 next time, finished fifth in the corresponding race at the Cheltenham Festival, under five lengths behind Absurde.

Last time out he was beaten a length by Welsh Charger in this year's Scottish County Hurdle and has been raised two pounds for that effort - to 122.

At the time of writing Bo Zenith heads the market; this one has had two outings since moving from Gary Moore's yard in October and both represent pertinent pieces of form.

On seasonal debut he finished third behind Mirabad in the Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (Wreckless Eric second, To Chase A Dream fourth, Spirits Bay fifth and Tintintin sixth).  

Next time he appeared outpaced on better ground over and extended two miles three when fifth behind Altobelli at Ascot.

Wreckless Eric has made good progress since moving from Ben Pauling's yard in the autumn; he will appreciate drying ground but stable form is still something of a concern.

Having won over an extended two miles three at Doncaster, To Chase A Dream is likely to appreciate Sandown's stiff finish.

Last time out Spirits Bay finished third behind Constitution Hill in the International Hurdle and has been well supported in the market.

Despite his price Tintintin brings respectable form to the table - third behind runaway winner Pickanumber in the Swinton last May (Tapley second, Afadil eleventh) and fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood (Go Dante ninth).

Bought for 150,000 euros, Batman Girac  has yet to win a race for Simon Munir and Isaac Souede; last time the gelding was three lengths down and staying on when falling at the final flight in a Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Course and distance winner Knickerbockerglory beat Nemean Lion eight lengths on seasonal debut - that reads well - and finished third behind Secret Squirrel on soft ground at Windsor seven weeks ago (Hardy Du Seuil fifth, Wreckless Eric sixth, Go Dante eleventh). 

Ooh Betty also boasts course and distance winning form and ran well in a Grade 2 Mares' Hurdle on good ground at Ascot last time, leading off the home turn but losing two places on the run-in, eventually finishing third behind Take No Chances and Kargese.

On his blog Paul Nicholls reports Sorceleur 'took a blow before keeping on to finish third' behind Jurancon at Newbury last week. There has been some market support this evening.

That one races from one pound out of the handicap, as does We're Red And Blue, stablemate of Wreckless Eric, while Big Ginge goes from five pounds out of the handicap and remains a maiden.

Hardy Du Seuil ran well for Will Featherstone when fifth behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor - the pair were beaten just three lengths - and the partnership is renewed tomorrow. Drying ground looks a negative for this one.

Tapley has mixed hurdling and chasing this term. His second in the Swinton looks good; prior to that he had finished fourth behind Tintintin in a conditional and amateur riders' race at Cheltenham. 

In a race that often goes the way of a five or six-year old, I'm going for one that will appreciate the better ground. 

King William Rufus ran well on soft ground in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last month, eventually finishing sixth. Handler Chris Gordon said about his charge in the RP Weekender [26.02-02.03.25]:

"The ground wouldn't have been in his favour in the William Hill Hurdle last time. He seems to prefer better ground, but he still ran an absolute blinder to finish sixth. I think if he'd jumped the second-last better, he'd have probably finished fourth, which would have meant a bit more prize-money. I was pleased with the way he ran and I might look at the Imperial Cup if the ground dries up."

The yard haven't had a winner for 25 days; I'm hoping King William Rufus will give me a run for my money.

King William Rufus is the each-way selection, 16/1 generally at the time of writing but William Hill offer 18/1 and pay five places. 

The 2025 Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster

Fourteen were originally declared for tomorrow's renewal of the Grimthorpe but King Turgeon is now a non-runner, leaving thirteen to face the starter at 3.15; the going on the chase course is currently described as good, good to soft in places.

King Turgeon was one of three runners I thought might prefer more cut underfoot, the other two being Surrey Quest and, possibly, Undersupervision.

Back in 2022 the ground was soft underfoot when Undersupervision, six years old at the time, beat Mister Malarky in this race off a mark of 132; it remains the only chase the gelding has won in 18 attempts and was the first time a horse younger than eight had come home in front since Knight Templar won in 2000.

In the 2023 renewal Moroder, racing from one pound out of the handicap proper, pipped Undersupervision a neck on good ground. 

In last year's renewal only two of the ten to start completed with Does He Know staying on dourly under top weight to deny Some Scope; Undersupervision was pulled up.

It's no surprise to see Some Scope at the head of the market on ground he's likely to appreciate and a mark just two pounds higher than last year. 

On his penultimate start he had the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in safe-keeping approaching the last, although Charlie Maggs' seven pound claim meant he was receiving 21 pounds from runner-up Kinondo Kwetu.

Undersupervision is one of three runners for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

According to the market Weveallbeencaught is the yard's best chance, with son Sam in the plate. 

The horse spent some time with Christian Williams in the autumn but returned to Naunton in January and beat Rock My Way in a five-runner novice handicap at this track five weeks ago. 

He made most that day; watching a replay, I thought his jumping was safe rather than assured on occasions although he appeared to warm to the task in hand as the race progressed. This represents a stiffer test.

I've as much time for stablemate The Kniphand whose third behind Monbeg Genius and Richmond Lake on soft ground at Uttoxeter last time reads well.

This one went into my notebook back at the beginning of October when he won a three mile novice handicap on good, good to firm ground, at Southwell, beating the previous course record by (an astonishing) 12 seconds. 

I've checked that again; the results section from the RP Weekender states:

"An extremely fast time, 12 secs faster than the previous course record."  

There were a number of fast times recorded that day: Nevendon won the opener in just over a second under standard, and both Harry's Hope and Sunshine Diamond also established new course records.

Still... Food for thought, as they say.

Last time out White Rhino ran in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day; he wasn't too slick at the first and then made a mistake at the third, unseating Henry Brooke in the process. 

Unexposed, he could prove better than these but with just three chase starts to his name I'm not tempted. Although he won a three mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in December 2023, much of his racing to date has been over a shorter trip.

It looks as though connections of top weight Twig have been trying to take advantage of a more lenient hurdle mark with three runs over the smaller obstacles so far this term.

This one tends to race up with the pace; his second behind Chianti Classico in last year's Ultima reads well, as does his win in the 2023 Uttoxeter Summer Cup. 

Trainer Ben Pauling has indicated the horse needs to run once to qualify for this season's Grand National and this is that run. His chance is respected. 

Surrey Quest holds an entry in the Aintree Grand National and, should he fail to make the cut, the Scottish National will be the target, a race in which he was beaten a nose by Macdermott last April.

Writing in the RP Weekender [12-16.02.25], handler Toby Lawes said:

"He has a Grand National entry but I don't think he'll get in.

"He probably had to win at Musselburgh to give us a live chance (finished third behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National), but we'll see. We've always got the Scottish National, in which he was beaten only a nose last year. That's always been plan A for this season and I'd think he'd have a serious chance in that. 

"I'll probably consider something like the Grimthorpe for his next run... 

"If he's sound and well, I'd be very happy to get another run into him and something like the Grimthorpe wouldn't be a marathon slog either."   

Hymac finished second behind Henry's Friend in the Mandarin at Newbury (Surrey Quest unseated rider) but the in-running comment 'Didn't always jump with fluency' tells its own tale. Connections will hope the fitting of first-time cheekpieces will help the cause.

Erne River, Fidelio Vallis and Lord Baddesley are runners who wouldn't be guaranteed to see out the trip. 

The last-named moved to from Chris Gordon to Anthony Honeyball's yard at the beginning of November and looks feasibly treated from a handicapping perspective but hasn't won for two years.

Outsider Monte Igueldo hasn't won since he moved down the road from Oliver Greenall to Gary Hanmer's yard in Tattenhall, Cheshire. 

His third at odds of 125/1 in last year's Summer Cup at Uttoxeter behind Hang In There reads well, as does his second behind Kinondo Kwetu over the same course and distance four weeks later.

On a couple of lines through Kinondo Kwetu that admittedly wouldn't stand up to too much close scrutiny - in this season's Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby -  he's entitled to be competitive with Some Scope. 

Although seventh behind Victtorino over three miles at Ascot two weeks ago, he was beaten under eight lengths and the time before, when third at Bangor on soft ground, he raced without the declared tongue-tie. 

More than likely at some stage in tomorrow's proceedings he'll be outpaced but, if first-time cheekpieces help, he can outrun odds of 40/1.

Plenty of imponderables but I like The Kniphand from a stable in form; Finn Lambert claims three and has been on board for four of the gelding's five victories to date.

The Kniphand is the each-way suggestion, 10/1 generally at the time of writing with most layers paying four places.

The 2025 Eider Chase

Eighteen have been declared for tomorrow's Eider Chase (2.10 Newcastle) with the going currently described as good to soft, soft in places. 

Collectors Item carries top weight; I've still to forgive myself for missing him in the Somerset National at Wincanton last time - he won at odds of 14/1 - having given a clear indication of a return to form on his previous start where he finished one and a half lengths behind Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown.

Jonjo O'Neill's charge was raised four pounds after that win at Wincanton but Jack Hogan's three pound claim offsets most of the increase.

Favourite O'Connell goes for a four-timer here. 

Having won the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day by nine and a half lengths (Kelce one length in arrears when falling at the last), connections decided to try their luck down south in a handicap chase at Sandown.

Gavin Sheehan rode one cool race out the back that day, steadily making ground over the last half mile to jump the final fence in fourth and then scoot up the hill to win going away. 

The handicapper has raised the gelding eight pounds for his trouble; without wishing to carp that performance, I noted that five of the eight opponents that day were over nine years of age.

He has shot up 22 pounds since winning at Carlisle on December 1st; Peter Kavangh claims three while Gavin Sheehan rides Passing Well who led three out in the Surrey National at the end of last month but was pipped on the line by Sporting Ace (Major Dundee pulled up).

That looked a hard enough race on heavy ground at Lingfield just three weeks ago; Sporting Ace has gone up five pounds, Passing Well four.

Last year Anglers Crag beat Prince Des Fichaux a neck in this with Major Dundee unseating Tom Bellamy two out when ridden in third. 

Anglers Crag tries again this year off a mark four pounds higher; Brian Ellison's charge was fourth behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh 20 days ago, losing two places after the last. Second spot was claimed by Bodhisattva who goes off the same mark again tomorrow.

Brian Ellison hasn't had a jumps winner for 57 days while John McConnell's yard has struggled this winter.

Prince Des Fichaux races from two pounds out of the handicap this time and hasn't shown a lot since that effort in last year's race (behind Bretney twice - in the Highland National at Perth in April and the Scottish Borders National at Kelso in December). Handler Ewan Whillans has sent out two winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight.

Choosethenews won a point over three miles in 2022 but most of his racing under rules to date has been over trips around the two and a half mile mark. He has been well supported in the market during the day and his run behind Giovinco in February might suggest 126 is a lenient mark.

Having been pulled up behind O'Connell on his penultimate start, last time he finished second behind If Not For Dylan over two miles seven and a half furlongs at this track (Lord Roco a close third, Prince Des Fichaux pulled up). 

Lord Roco has yet to win a race over fences.

Ilikedwayurthinkin likes to race up with the pace and, despite his age, comes into this in good form having won easily at the track over three miles six at the end of November and then finishing second under top weight behind Undeniable Alibi at Ayr last month. 

Owned by J.P. McManus, this one has been supported in the market during the day; Ben Haslam hasn't had a jumps winner for 83 days.

Egbert looks the pick of Alan King's two; writing in the RP Weekender the handler tells readers the bug that hit the yard is easing off now and continues:

"This has been the target for Egbert since he won the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. 

"He's not an easy horse to catch right but he's working well and the further they go the better - he kept grinding away at Haydock, having been off the bridle a long way out, and he'll be suited by this thorough test of stamina. 

"Major Dundee couldn't handle the absolutely bottomless ground at Lingfield in the Surrey National but he didn't give himself a hard race and he's come out of it fine. 

"He was running well when he unseated two out in last year's Eider, holding third place at the time. He would definitely have been placed and he's five pounds lower now."

I've heard Henry Daly, when discussing Bretney, say that the further they go, the better he goes. 

In the past Alistair Jones has called this ten-year-old 'inconsistent' in the RP Weekender and a quick look at his profile might confirm that opinion with blinkers, cheekpieces and a visor tried on various occasions during his career. 

He seems best when able to lead from the front - on his penultimate start he beat Your Own Story 10 lengths in the Scottish National at Kelso. At the time of writing he's 33/1 with William Hill, having been 40s in places earlier in the day which, to my untrained eye, looks big should he turn up on a going day.

Your Own Story's subsequent sixth in the Welsh Grand National behind Val Dancer reads well enough, although Lucinda Russell's charge appeared to lose his pitch mid race before staying on from two out.

Irish raider History Of Fashion has three chase wins to his name and they've all have come at Down Royal and Fairyhouse - both right-handed tracks. 

Two of those wins have come this term for seven pound claimer Harry Sexton, the most recent a Listed race over three mile five and a half furlongs at the beginning of December.

Back in May Gaboriot won a hunter chase at Cheltenham over a distance of four miles and half a furlong while his third behind King Turgeon in the Great Sefton in November certainly catches the eye.

The chestnut was due to run in the Edinburgh National but was declared a non-runner after a poor scope. He comes to this fresher than a few in the field and the yard has sent out a couple of winners in the past week.

Three of Chemical Warfare's six chase wins have come at Newcastle and he has won over an extended three and a quarter mile trip at Sedgefield. 

I was under the impression the Pipe stable used to target this race in the past but perhaps I'm mistaken as Comply Or Die (2008) is their only previous winner. The yard is going through a quiet spell at the moment - just one win from 21 runs in the past fortnight.

Knockanore goes beyond three miles for the first time.

The lowest official handicap ratings of the winner since Merigo won off 125 in 2009 are:

2016: Rocking Blues 126

2017: Mysteree 127

2024: Anglers Crag 126

In a highly competitive affair I've decided to focus on those in the field that have previously shown some form around the four mile mark: Anglers Crag, Gaboriot, Your Own Story, Bodhisattva, Major Dundee, Bretney and Prince Des Fichaux.

Gaboriot is the each-way suggestion, as I write still 12/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair who pay five places.